REPORT: Michigan State's Most Difficult Game This Season by the Numbers

Michigan State has one of the most challenging schedules in the Big Ten and the country. Which game is the most difficult on its schedule?

]Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson (1) runs by Michigan State Spartans defensive back Jaden Mangham (1) for a touchdown during first-half action at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023. / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan State’s football team will soon open the season with a home matchup against Florida Atlantic.

It is almost a two-touchdown favorite over the Owls. Still, Michigan State has many more challenging games this season, as the Spartans play two teams ranked in the top five of most preseason rankings. ESPN’s Football Power Index also confirms the difficulty ahead for Michigan State this season.

According to ESPN, they base their FPI scores on "past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections." 

Michigan State has the 68th-best FPI ranking heading into the season. According to FPI, the Spartans are projected to win between four and seven games this upcoming season. Michigan State’s schedule is undoubtedly difficult, as the Spartans play nine teams with a higher FPI ranking than them and three teams with a lower FPI ranking. The Spartans play all three teams in East Lansing, heightening their chances of winning.

Around the season's midway point, Michigan State has arguably the most brutal four-game stretch of any team in the country. It plays Ohio State at home, followed by a road game against Oregon, a home game against Iowa, and a road game against its archrival, the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans will have their work cut out for them during this stretch. 

While Michigan is coming off a national championship, according to ESPN’s FPI, the Wolverines are only Michigan State’s third-most challenging opponent this season. Michigan State only has a 13% chance of beating Michigan in Ann Arbor. Michigan has the 12th-highest FPI ranking in the country and is expected to finish with around eight wins. 

According to the numbers, Michigan State’s most challenging game this upcoming season is their road matchup against Oregon. Oregon is a familiar foe for Coach Smith, who spent the last six years as Oregon State’s head coach and faced Oregon annually. The Ducks have the second-highest FPI ranking in the country and are projected to win 11 games this season. 

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