REPORT: Where Michigan State Football Stands in National Rating System

Michigan State has had a successful month on the recruiting trail. However, as the first season under Coach Jonathan Smith approaches, the expectations for the Spartans are low.

Michigan State's Nathan Carter runs for a touchdown during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA

Michigan State and Coach Jonathan Smith are approaching next season’s kickoff after an eventful offseason. Coach Smith and the Spartans have faced their fair share of difficulties this offseason.

However, many around the college football world think the difficulties are just beginning for the Spartans. Michigan State has started rebuilding its football program, which usually comes with a forgettable first season.

After releasing its preseason Football Power Index rankings, ESPN believes that will be the case for the Spartans. ESPN ranked Michigan State 68th nationally in its FPI rankings, the 17th-best ranking out of the 18 schools in the Big Ten.

Per ESPN, "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

“FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure.”

According to ESPN’s FPI simulations, the Spartans are predicted to finish 5-7 on the season and have a 36.4% chance of winning six games. After everything they have been through this offseason, winning five games would be a victory for Smith and his coaching staff. 

A six-win season and a bowl game would be a significant win for Smith and his coaching staff and would likely lead to an improved 2025 and 2026 recruiting class once recruits see the product Smith and the Spartans put on the field this season. Although the FPI rankings are not meant to predict playoff teams, the Spartans have a 0.6% chance of reaching the CFP, per the metric.

Michigan State will face two teams in the top five in FPI rankings when they take on No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Ohio State in consecutive weeks.

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