Scouting Report & Prediction: Michigan State vs. #6 Penn State
A look at this week's opponent…
Mark Dantonio said of the week, “Traditionally, I think when Coach Perles was here and Penn State came into the league, we started playing them the last game of the season in 1993, I believe, and it's taken on a little bit of a different twist because we are playing in mid-season now. I believe we played them up through 2016 on the last game of the season and was sort of a building rivalry.”
Dantonio added, “There's been some great games in the past as we've gone through this, and you know, it's sort of a game that we've pointed to. Have not had a home game since September 28, so a little bit different type of scheduling. Sort of in a different phase here because we have one game, basically in, three weeks' time with a bye coming next week, as well. Two games, Penn State, Illinois in one month, four weeks. It's a little bit different in terms what have we were dealing with, but we knew this was going to happen and needed to prepare ourselves accordingly. I think we've embraced the situation. Opportunity to get guys back and focus in a little bit more as we go forward.”
Dantonio concluded saying, “Penn State itself, another Top-10 team. I believe it's the third time we're playing, maybe I guess ever in the history of Michigan State football, I understand, that we've played three Top-10 teams in a row I believe we're the only team in the country to have done that. Obviously be another great challenge for us. When you look at Penn State, Coach Franklin has done a great job there thus far.”
Penn State coach James Franklin said of the contest, “Obviously a lot of respect for their program. A lot of respect for Coach Dantonio, the winningest coach in their program's history. Been there for 13 years and obviously a level of consistency that's impressive.”
Franklin added, “Probably one of the teams that returning the most starters up there in our conference, in terms of the number of starters coming back, nine on offense, eight on defense and two on special teams. Obviously going on the road, tough place to play and looking forward to the opportunity.”
All of that is nice. But it is hyperbole. Franklin and Dantonio are not fond of one another. They can say all the pleasantries that they want, but at the root of this game is pure dislike. It is a thing of beauty.
When MSU has the ball…
The MSU offense stinks. Great kids and I believe in the players. The coaches are fine men, fathers, and husbands. But this offense is not worthy of being teamed with this defense. It is embarrassing.
If one more person tells me, “But we have more yards than last year?” This is about wins. WINS. Not being 4-3 and on the brink of 4-4. This rests on the head coach.
Franklin literally had nothing to say about the offense of the Spartans. What can you say? If truthful he would have said, “We are really fortunate that they have that offense. I hope the Spartan fund is investing well in the donation the coaches of the Big Ten made in order to keep that staff.” What he said was, “You talk about them offensively, Brad Salem, you know, they are a combination of 11 personnel and 12 personnel. They will sprinkle some 21 personnel, but it plays very similarly to 12. They are a zone read team. They are a stretch team. They are a power team. Guys that we're impressed with is Brian Lewerke, who has had some of his best games against us. Cody White and Darrell Stewart, both wide receivers that are doing some really good things for them.”
PSU CB John Reid said of facing QB Brian Lewerke for the third time that, “I definitely think it's a benefit. Just seeing how they attack us and everything on defense to kind of prepare for that. In some other ways, we feel like they will attack us this year. He know he has a good ability to be able to extend plays and I think what's even more important about how he does it is he extends plays but then doesn't make a lot of bad decisions when he does it. That's really a credit to how good of a quarterback he is.”
Dantonio said of the Lion defense that, “When you look at them defensively, again, you see Top-10 type components of their defense, sacks, two defensive ends, Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney, two guys that give them speed off the edge. Linebackers, Parsons and Brown, very, very active guys, three guys coming back in the secondary, so there will be a challenge on that side of the ball, as well.”
When MSU is on defense…
Coach Dantonio said of the Lions offense, “Offensively, Sean Clifford their quarterback is playing at a high level. The offensive line, I believe three guys are back. Tight end is No. 87, a guy that certainly, K.J. Hamler No. 1, is a guy that you stop Penn State, you have to first and foremost stop him. Outstanding player and makes things happen. Also on special teams, he's making things happen, as well as the kickoff returner, punt returner.”
The Lions are loaded with speed and playmakers. They are also young. That means that they will make mistakes. They have this year but have simply been better and able to recover.
Their youth was on stage when they got up big on the Wolverines and tried to coast. The Wolverines should not have been able to get back in that game, they did because the young Lions took their foot off the gas. Did they learn their lesson?
Michigan State’s offense must be able to at least get some first downs to let the defense rest. It was pathetic in the second quarter of the Badger game to see the Spartan defenders already worn out because they never left the field.
People who do not know football look at the score of both teams. But just like against Tulsa where the defense outscored the offense, many of last week’s points rested on an anemic offense that gave no help to the defense.
One NFL scout told me this week, “Anyone who knows football, watching the MSU offense is well aware it is a mess. It has to be disheartening for a defensive player to know you have to hold your opponent to zero or outscore them to win. I think you could see it the last two weeks, they are trying, but you can tell it has taken its toll.”
Intangibles…
Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, games are over. For those who don't remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two, that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus-four for the day. They want to get to a plus-five ratio at least every game. Teams that win the rule of five-win 91% of ball games.
Franklin has the PSU special teams performing at a high level. He said of their special teams which have been a real intangible for them in their run to 7-0 that, “I think we've been good. We can be better. I think, again, the stats can be a little bit deceiving especially in punt, because we're pinning people deep a lot of times with sky punts and things like that.”
He added, “But kickoff return, punt return, what we have done this year, probably better than years past, is we haven't had any of the catastrophic plays, the kickoff return for a touchdown, the punt return for a touchdown, the explosive return that swings momentum and field position. I think we've done a good job there, but I think we can be better.”
Extra Point…
We must start off the field, where the on-field product is having a massive impact. It is not good.
Things at Michigan State are not well. We at Spartan Nation have been warning of it for months, yet no one seems to be listening over there. This week they resorted to selling tickets (that are hard to give away) on a big discount site called Groupon. (CLICK HERE TO READ) Donors and season ticket holders are furious. If the Spartans fall behind early or struggle, things are going to get real ugly on Saturday. That isn’t good.
One MSU Administrator called the selling of tickets on Groupon, “A great idea to get rid of excess inventory.” I wonder why no one is buying the tickets. Another, “It is an embarrassment. A total joke.” One member of the Board of Trustees said, “I had no clue, but obviously the optics are terrible.”
Mark Dantonio is in year 13 of his regime at Michigan State. It is fine for him to point out when players are not executing. But it was he himself who this summer told us one of the reasons for optimism in the 2019 season was because of so many returning players. Returning players are making the same mistakes. That's on coaching.
Not having players who can replace starters who are not performing at a high level, that's on the fact that for many years they've struggled in recruiting offensive players because of their anemic and terrible scheme and coaching. Again that's on coaching.
Mark Dantonio is a man who should be credited for saving Spartan football. The day he resigns he deserves a statue to commemorate what he has done in East Lansing. As someone who was once close to him, I can tell you he is an honorable man. A great father and husband. But this isn’t about the character. That doesn't mean we ignore what he has allowed the program to fall into the depths of mediocrity.
While Mark Dantonio should be respected and appreciated, let us not forget he didn't do this for free. Michigan State has made him a multi-millionaire many times over and he deserves that, but he owes the University and its fans to maintain that at the level in which he’s paid. He has not. He has been loyal to men who are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars while not doing their job at a level commiserate to the program and ignoring the fans and school that if paid him so handsomely. It is a sad ending to a great career.
Mark Dantonio has had James Franklin’s number. This game has been circled. The Lions are out for blood. Reid talked about the last two games saying, “It's something we've seen. We rewatch all the games and know we're the ones on the field, and we just know that we need to finish it out. That's kind of our mentality, being humble and hungry, and then finishing out the game. That's kind of the plan every week. That's kind of how we want it.”
Prediction…
• Coach Chuck Grenier 21-14 Penn State
• Duffy Carpenter 31-6 Penn State
• Jonathan Schopp 31-13 Penn State
• Matt Hladik 27-16 Penn State
• Matt Duda 47-24 Penn State
• Chris Stoddard 31-7 Penn State
• Xavier DeGroat 20-15 Michigan State
• Dustin Hockensmith 27-17 Penn State
• Jeff Michalowski 17-14 Penn State
I have no faith whatsoever in the Michigan State offensive game planning, coaching or scheme. I like the players and the coaches personally, but as a scheme, it is a total embarrassment. I 100% have faith in the defense. I say make it 14-7 Lions.
How to Watch…
Where: ABC and WJR AM 760
Time: 3:30 p.m.
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