Scouting Report and Prediction: Michigan State vs. Boise State

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Boise State Broncos invade Spartan Stadium no strangers to big games to kick off the season. This is the fourth straight season that the Broncos open the season on the road against a BCS power school. They are 3-0 in the first three beating Virginia Tech, Georgia and Oregon. They have lost 17 starters from last year and most notably a man many consider the greatest college QB of all time in Kellen Moore.  Chris Petersen, their head coach, is considered by many the best coach in college football who has turned down numerous BCS jobs to stay in Boise. He is 73-6 as a head coach and his Broncos will not be intimidated or worried.

Dantonio said of starting with his game, “It's a philosophy here maybe that we're going to step out and play whoever. When somebody comes and says, ‘Do you want to play such and such this particular year,’ I'm not going to shrug my shoulders and say, 'No.' I'm going to say, if it's good for the program, we'll play 'em. Vested interest by not just myself but the administration as well. We have a tremendous venue here really to show the nation the new scoreboards, the new video boards. They're spectacular. It's going to make the atmosphere interactive. I think our fans are going to enjoy it and it's going to be special.”

When MSU has the ball…

Everyone knows that the Spartans will be breaking in a new QB. Andrew Maxwell has greatness written all over him. The staff failed last year by not getting him more reps so there will be some lack of experience fog. That is fine. The Spartans have a great OL and one of the best backs in the nation in LeVeon Bell.

Look for the Spartans to come out and dare Boise to stop the run. They will make this a game of toughness. They will pass when they want to and not when they have to. When Boise loads the box look for Maxwell to get the opportunity to make the passes he can and get his young WRs and TEs involved. Also, don’t forget that Bell is underrated as a pass receiver.

I look for a full dose of tough grind and pound football; play action will be key. The Boise DB are underrated and the Spartans will show they respect, but not fear. They will attack them, but on their terms. The Spartans will use a far greater amount of three WR sets in order to limit Broncos ability to load the box.

I also look for more carries for Caper than some are assuming. LeVeon is the lead back no doubt, but Caper is an exceptional talent and he will carry the rock.

I asked MSU QB Andrew Maxwell if the pre-snap reads are more important against a multiple attacking D like Boise and he agreed. He said, “Yeah,
absolutely. You want to gather as much information as possible pre-snap. That speaks to the importance of keeping your head on a swivel when you're under center,
when you're in the shotgun, just gathering as much information as possible, recognizing, trying to find keys, trying to find clues. That comes from picking
it up on film, and in the game, are the things you're studying on film, is that what you're getting? Are those keys and those clues holding true? So pre-snap
routine is going to be critical for us this game.”

When MSU is on defense…

If you are a humanitarian you feel for the Boise QB. Facing the best defense in the nation and a group of hungry Dawgs ready to feast, he is going to be under
constant pressure all day. The Spartans led by mad scientist DC Pat Narduzzi will send blitzers from every part of the field. They will dare him to be able to
get the ball off before he gets crushed and make the Bronco OL work every single play.

Like a hockey game, the Spartans DL will constantly rotate with fresh bodies, all talented, all big and all good. Make no mistake, the Broncos will score, but
can they score enough? This is NOT the defense to get your sea legs with. MSU is agile, hostile, and mobile and they want to play a game of football that more
resembles a street fight than a football game. This will be brutal.

Dantonio described their offense as, “I would say they're multiple is what I would term them as. They're going to make so many different formations out of all the personnel groupings. They're going to run unbalanced sets, they are going to run trick plays, they are going to be in empty sets and quads, four to one side, one on the backside. They're going to be in all different types of sets. That's over the course of a season.

So I'm sure that we're going to see things relative to a game, 75 plays, 65, 70, 80. But they have the ability to go no‑huddle. They have the ability to get the two tight ends and pound it, two‑back formation, using the fullback. They have a fullback back who was out last year, 260‑pound fullback. They have a lot of different weapons really to use.

I guess what I would say about them is, much like everybody we play, very well‑tied together schematically. They have a plan, stick to their plan, execute their plan. They put you in space. They stretch you vertically. They'll run the ball, especially the zone play, the power‑play.

Their tailback is an exciting runner, as well. They lost some great players last year, but they've got good players stepping up now.”

Intangibles…

In the last five years the Broncos are 27-3 on the road. They are masterfully coached and prepared. You put their coach in any major BCS school and they compete for national titles. He is facing a Mark Dantonio coached team this time. Dantonio is an elite coach also and he has eyes on a Big Ten title and a dark horse shot at a national title. With nearly 80,000 in the stands, a night crowd and a national TV audience, this could be one of the most special nights in Spartan Stadium history.

There are a lot of emotions and feelings swirling in the Spartan Nation. Dantonio is glad that the fan base caught up with him and the team with those expectations. He isn’t running from them he embraces them. He said, “You know, expectations from the general public perception may be a little bit higher than maybe they've been in the past couple years. But expectations in the room that I sit in, expectations that come from the players remain the same. We've always gone into every football game expecting to win. We've always tried to play extremely hard.”

 

Prediction…

The last time the Broncos had only 10 returning starters and lost a QB was in 2004. That year they went 11-4. The Broncos will be the best coached team and
best run program that the Spartans face all year. They will have inexperience, but they will be ready.

It should be illegal, but for sure it is inhumane to make a new QB start in this environment and against this defense. In the three previous seasons opening big games, the Broncos haven’t faced a defense like MSU. The Spartan offense will be fine, but that defense will be intimidating.

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game. In a game like this where the Broncos get rid of the ball so fast, sometimes it isn’t sacks, sometimes it is rushing a throw and getting a pick or blocking a pass.

You know the Broncos will make plays, they are so well prepared, but the Spartans will be fine. Make it MSU 27 and Boise State 10.