Which Games are Must-Win Games for Michigan State This Season?

As Michigan State enters the first season under Coach Jonathan Smith, which games are must-win games?

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith walks to the sideline during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA

Michigan State and Coach Jonathan Smith undoubtedly have one of the most challenging schedules in the country. Specifically, Michigan State has arguably the most difficult four-game stretch. In five weeks, Michigan State plays two teams ranked in the preseason top five. Smith and his coaching staff face one of the most daunting slates of games in college football, and that is in addition to all the other difficulties they have had to face this offseason.

Smith and Michigan State play Ohio State at home, Oregon on the road, Iowa at home, and Michigan on the road in consecutive weeks. That is a four-game stretch nearly no team in college football would be eager to face, let alone a program in the beginning stages of a rebuild like Smith and Michigan State are. 

The four-game stretch is challenging; Smith and Michigan State deserve a pass for nearly anything that happens during that span. Most would agree that Michigan State will likely lose all four of those games; it's just a matter of how competitive Coach Smith and Michigan State will be during those games. 

Even if they were to lose all four games, Smith and Michigan State still have a legitimate shot at making a bowl game this season. However, losing all four games makes the other games on Michigan State’s schedule much more critical. Losing four straight games nearly removes room for any other losses if Michigan State hopes to make it to a bowl game in Smith’s first season in East Lansing.

Six wins are needed for a team to be invited to a bowl game. After removing the four games that Smith and Michigan State likely lose, Michigan State has eight remaining games to secure those six wins. If Smith and Michigan State hope to make it to a bowl game, there are six games they absolutely must win.

The first must-win games are simple to identify. Home games against Prarie View A&M and Florida Atlantic early in the season are games even a rebuilding Michigan State team should win. Michigan State must win four of the remaining six games to qualify for a bowl game. They are unlikely to win all six but do not need to reach a bowl game.

While it is possible to win both games, Michigan State will likely lose one of their early season road games against Maryland or Boston College. The matchup against Boston College is the game they have the best chance of winning. That would leave games against Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue late in the season for Michigan State to secure the additional three wins needed to reach a bowl. Purdue is arguably the most difficult of those four games, making their games against Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana must-win games for Smith and Michigan State this season.

Don’t forget to follow the official Spartan Nation Page on Facebook Spartan Nation WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be a part of our vibrant community group Go Green Go White as well WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.