Why Michigan State Can Easily Cover Point Spread Against UM

Michigan State is familiar with being the underdogs this season. Here is why they can prove the doubters wrong again.
Michigan State's Aidan Chiles throws against Iowa in the first quarter on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Aidan Chiles throws against Iowa in the first quarter on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State versus Michigan is always an essential game in Michigan. However, in recent years, the game has been less meaningful than in years past. Luckily, a new era in the rivalry is being ushered in, as two new head coaches will lead both teams and two new starting quarterbacks.

There are many new faces across the board that will make this a more exciting matchup than it has been over the last few seasons. CBS' Sports Staff looked at the upcoming matchup between the Spartans and the Wolverines.

“One of college football's oldest rivalries is on tap for Saturday when the Michigan Wolverines (4-3, 2-2) host the Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 2-2) at Michigan Stadium in the 2024 Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy,” the CBS Sports Staff wrote. “Michigan is 4-1 at home, and Michigan State is 1-2 on the road. The Wolverines are looking to bounce back from a 21-7 loss to Illinois, while the Spartans are looking to build off their 32-20 win over Iowa. Michigan leads the all-time series 73-38-5. 

“Kickoff in Ann Arbor is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Michigan is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Michigan State vs. Michigan odds from SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 39.5 points."

There will be plenty of talent on the field on Saturday. CBS’ Sports Staff listed Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles as arguably the single-most critical player in the game. Chiles has turned the ball over at an alarming rate all season. While he cut down on the turnovers last week against Iowa, he must do so again in Ann Arbor this weekend.

“Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles, who followed Smith from Oregon State, is coming off one of his most efficient games of the season," the CBS Sports Staff wrote. "Chiles completed 22 of 30 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, and he rushed for 51 yards. His top target has been freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh, who has 24 catches for 433 yards and a touchdown."

Michigan State has already done multiple things that have displayed its growth as a football program. Still, a win over Michigan in their first season under Smith would be a remarkable turnaround for a new coach to achieve in less than a season, especially when considering everything Michigan State has gone through with its coaches and team over the last calendar year.

Most sportsbooks have Michigan State as an underdog by less than a touchdown, and that number continues to drop as more and more people begin to believe Michigan State can pull off the upset. Many things about both teams, such as Michigan's inability to pass the ball and Michigan State's ability to stop the run, will be significant reasons why Michigan State keeps the game close.

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Ezekiel Trezevant
EZEKIEL TREZEVANT

Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.