The Big Ten Championship Outlook Moving Forward: Iowa

Coming off their 55-16 win last Saturday over Penn State to clinch the Big Ten East, the Spartans travel to Indianapolis to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big

Coming off their 55-16 win last Saturday over Penn State to clinch the Big Ten East, the Spartans travel to Indianapolis to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game at 8:00 p.m. on Fox.

Offense

Last week we suggested that this unit’s best performances may be ahead of them. The Penn State result supported that premise as MSU hung 55 points on a better than average Nittany Lions Defense. The challenge for this unit, and really the entire team, is to make sure Penn State was a launching point rather than their peak performance of 2015. The Spartans ran it pretty well on the day, Connor Cook threw it pretty well, and there were a couple of individual highlight efforts from a large cast of Spartans involved in MSU's biggest point total since last year’s win over Indiana.

The Offense has been trending in the right direction in the past couple weeks, has gone away from being run-first-stubborn, and is now set up to reach higher throughout the post season. The key to making that happen begins with the health of the Offensive Line and Connor Cook. “The Doctor said it was kind of a two to three week deal,” Cook told the Spartan Radio Network after clinching the Big Ten East about his banged up right shoulder. “Today (Saturday) felt a lot better than Thursday,” he pointed out, which bodes well for the Offense this week.

“Connor Cook played spectacularly for a guy that hadn’t really practiced in two weeks,” Mark Dantonio said in his post game radio show. Any rust that Cook may have accumulated in that downtime was minimal and was shed on a day that the Offense converted 8 out of 11 times on 3rd Down. “The thing that I’m most happy about is the amount of fun we had today,” Cook described about the 2105 Senior Day. “I tried to savor every last second.” He was not the only one.

Jack Allen got to live out “every Offensive Lineman’s dream,” according to Mark Dantonio. Allen lined up in the backfield on 1st & Goal from the 9-yard line late in the game and straight took it to the house for the final score of the day. “That was a great stiff arm,” Cook said about Allen's bulldozing rush. “He’s two for two, with two Touchdowns (going back to the Spring Game).” Dantonio noted the Spartans “have athletes up there” on the Offensive Line, which will need to display that athletic edge while staying in sync again against Iowa.

The Hawks bring the 21st ranked Total Defense to Indy. They’re built around the 6th ranked Rushing Defense (110 yards allowed per game) and 63rd ranked unit in Passing Yards Allowed for the regular season. They finished 15th in Scoring Defense by giving up 18.7 points per game. They are coordinated by Phil Parker, a decorated and familiar name to Spartan Nation who took over for another one, Norm Parker (no relation), after his health became too difficult to continue beyond the 2011 season.

Phil Parker was an All-Big Ten Defensive Back from 1983 through 1985, earning MSU Defensive MVP honors in ’83 and ’85. He started as a Graduate Assistant at MSU in 1987 under George Perles and then Defensive Coordinator Nick Saban. He joined Kirk Ferentz at Iowa in 1999 after 11 seasons coaching Defensive Backs at Toledo. His unit is fundamentally sound, pretty strong up front, and will test the Spartans more than many expect. They’re led on the field by Desmond King, who Monday was named the Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year in the Big Ten, and like to play downhill and straight ahead whenever possible.

The Spartans finished the regular season ranked 79th in Rushing Offense (159.6 yards per game), 48th in Passing Offense (239.8 yards per game), 19th in Sacks Allowed (1.25 per game), and 44th in Scoring Offense. That totaled up to the 68th ranked Total Offense through regular season play. Those are far from the numbers many expected in 2015 but with as banged up as this unit has been most of the year, they could easily be far worse. This Offense is plenty talented and may be healthier heading into this week up front than they’ve been since early September. That also has them in position to over achieve in the coming month.

Connor Cook has a "big game" history that dates back to at least the championship game of 2013. This week he was named the Big Ten Quarterback of the year, which did not surprise a soul, and should not have any impact on the Cook we will see this weekend. He'll be looking to get the ball to another "big game" achiever, Macgarrett Kings. Kings is without question looking to finish this season and his Spartan career on a high note given the ups and downs he's experienced in East Lansing. Gerald Holmes has taken over as the lead Running Back for MSU by making the most of his early season game experience. Holmes reads plays better by the week, runs with enough patience for holes and space to develop, and though he's more of an upright runner, he still carries enough power to break tackles and extend plays. Then there's Aaron Burbridge. He was named the Big Ten receiver of the year this week in large part because his play continues to improve. With all that firepower plus more Tight Ends than the Spartans can fully utilize, MSU has a lot of options for the Hawkeyes to keep an eye on.

The Spartans game plan and play calling the last two weeks has been fantastic. It looks like they’ve left the run-first-stubborn approach that slowed them early in the season behind for good. But if they revert back to that approach this week because they’re healthier up front, they will put the Iowa Defense in their best position to succeed. Once again, MSU should mix in some option whether that's with Cook, another QB, or out of the revived Wildcat formation. The Hawkeyes haven’t faced a group as talented as the Spartans this year and it’s up to MSU to demonstrate that. They need to stay creative from the opening drive and mix in enough variety over the course of the entire game to keep the Hawks stretched out and guessing a good bit.

Defense

The Spartan Dawgs survived the best that Penn State threw at them early and then flourished as the game went on and MSU’s wealth of talent took over. Christian Hackenberg again didn't get consistent pass protection though he threw for 257 yards, and Saquon Barkley flashed an NFL future but only ran for 103. Penn State's 418 total yards is a pretty big number, but they only came up with 16 points on the day and were kept in check by MSU's improving 3rd Down Defense, which stopped PSU on 10 of 15 times. "The score (55-16) is not indicative of how it went down,” Dantonio explained during his post game radio show. Iowa should present a more difficult and balanced challenge for this Defense. As a result, the game should be competitive for much longer than Penn State.

Iowa brings the 63rd ranked Total Offense to decide the Big Ten this week. They're 32nd in Rushing Offense (203.7 yards per game) and 92nd in Passing Offense (200.6 yards per game), yet have made a good bit of those yards in producing the 41st  overall Scoring Offense ( 33.7 points per game) in the country. The x-factor in the Hawkeye's Offense is unquestionably C.J. Bethard. His scrambling and improvisational Quarterback ability is what makes this Iowa Offense so much better than they've been in recent years.

Bethard was born with a serious football lineage in his blood (ex. grandfather Bobby Bethard) and also spent a good bit of time growing up around musicians in the "Music City," aka Nashville, Tennessee. It caught some by surprise during the first calendar days of 2015 when Kirk Ferentz named Bethard the Hawkeyes' starter moving forward, paving the way for Jake Rudock's move to Michigan, but it's since worked out better than anyone could've imagined. The Hawks' 12-0 start is the best in the 143 year history of Iowa Football and Bethard's performance is without question a key factor in that success.

The Spartans know they must stop Bethard by containing him from capitalizing on loose plays. He's may be the smartest running Quarterback the Spartans have played this year though he lacks outstanding size (6'2, 209 lbs.) and has only ran for over 50 yards only twice all year. His most effective runs have been moving around behind the line of scrimmage to open up a passing lane and give time for Iowa receivers to find space. That's how Bethard has thrown only 3 Interceptions to 14 Touchdowns this year, and why he's only been sacked 19 times. As Bethard goes Saturday night, so shall go the Iowa Offense.

At the point of attack Iowa has been relatively healthy and very solid all year. Jordan Canazeri has ran behind their line for 964 yards and 12 Touchdowns as the lead back. Backups LeShun Danilels and Akrum Wadley have gone for over 1,000 yards and 15 Touchdowns combined. When you put that running game together with Bethard's smart Quarterback play, you end up with a team that's outstanding in Turnover Margin, Time of Possession (ranked 25th), and therefore playing for a conference championship. Credit the Hawkeyes for getting the most of out the talent on this team.

Much like the Ohio State and Michigan efforts earlier this year, it's all going to start up front for the Spartan Defense this week. While Iowa may not have the talent or athletes to match those other two past MSU opponents, they have played steady all year and will come into the Big Ten Championship more confident team than any MSU has faced all year. If the Defensive Line thinks they'll just waltz into Indy and immediately dominate the Big Ten West (some know it as the Big Ten-JV) winners, they've got another thing coming. (Feel free to nod your heads, Judas Priest fans)

This group needs to show up ready to set the tone and follow through for all 60 minutes. They cannot take snaps off in this one. If they bring it consistently that they will stop the Iowa run, put Iowa into difficult down and distance combinations, and have a chance to get Bethard on the run. If the Spartans can get to him for sacks (especially late) when he scrambles, the Defense can lead this team to a championship performance. If they cannot get to Bethard or if Iowa can run sufficiently, this game will be a lot closer for a lot longer than the paper matchups would suggest. We'll have to wait and see how hungry these Spartan Dawgs really are this week.

Special Teams

Penn State was another puzzling effort for Spartans Special Teams. From a kicking perspective, Kevin Cronin struggled out of the gate. But a big MSU scoring day gave him plenty of attempts over the afternoon and by the end he was able to get things mostly turned around. Michael Geiger missed an early Extra Point because a bad snap threw him off, and Jake Hartbarger only punted twice for 83 total yards. Overall it was just another day for this unit that’s been all over the place in 2015.

Iowa doesn’t have too many top end athletes to create a real Special Teams concern, but the Spartans know the value of Special Teams execution in the Big Ten Championship game. 2011 was not that long ago. MSU needs to avoid making the big mistake on Special Teams (most recently on a punt return at Ohio State) and focus on being sound in their fundamentals. If they’re fundamentally sound in this area they can prevent a big play from Iowa while also positioning themselves to also take advantage any Special Teams mistake by the Hawks that could pop up.

The Hawkeyes are 12-0 in large part because they haven’t made too many killer mistakes. Desmond King, a Junior from Detroit, is the all everything Defensive Back for the Hawks that also returns both kinds of kicks. Iowa is 32nd in Kickoff Returns (23.12 yard average), 83rd in Net Punting (MSU is 114th), but has yet to take one back for a Touchdown. If MSU makes another big mistake in kick coverage, however, King can make them pay and take it to the house.

Marshall Koehn is the Hawkeyes’ Place Kicker that is 13 for 17 this season. He has made 45 of 50 Extra Points this season, which suggests a kicking advantage for MSU. Michael Geiger is 9 of 14 on the season but has made many big kicks as recently as two weeks ago, and as far back as the Rose Bowl season of 2013. He is 50 of 52 on Extra Points for the year if you’re putting together a spreadsheet at home.

The Spartans need to spend a little extra time getting this unit tightened up to play for the Big Ten Championship. They have not played at a championship level for most of 2015, but for the two game winning plays that you cannot discount. Lucas Oil Stadium is obviously a weather controlled environment so MSU should have the opportunity to be solid all night. If they are solid, they will give themselves the chance to do something spectacular. If they are slacking they will leave open the opportunity for another Special Teams disaster and accompanying painful scar to arrive from the Big Ten Championship Game. Hopefully the memory of 2011 will keep that from happening again this time.

Overall

Halfway through the 4th Quarter against Penn State everything was going the Spartans way. As Jack Allen took a 1st Down handoff through the Nittany Lions with a stiff arm to put MSU up 54-16, another Big Ten Division Championship was clinched for Mark Dantonio and Spartan Football. The question now is whether that was the high point for the 2015 Spartans or just the beginning of a very special run. By any reasonable measure the season became a certified success with the Big Ten East and 11-wins for the third year in a row. It is, after all, probably the toughest division in College Football right now. Spartan Football deserves immense credit for delivering the East because all eyes were on them since January when Connor Cook and Shilique Calhoun decided to return to MSU and made no bones about it, they were coming back to play for championships.

“The main thing that was in the back of our mind heading into this season was hey, we’ve got unfinished business,” Cook explained after the win at Penn State. That business began in earnest last week. “You can’t go anywhere else unless you win the East,” Dantonio recounted post Penn State when explaining the Spartans' mindset for the season. The intensity of that unfinished business will take big jump up this week as the Spartans play for another league championship, and with it quite likely the # 2 or # 3 seed in the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Eve. As the stakes keep getting higher, the Spartans know they'll need to keep reaching higher.

Of course the Spartans had a look at the Big Ten Championship and the Playoff last year but after having a lead against both Oregon and Ohio State, could not close the deal. “(That) made us that much more hungrier this year,” Cook explained after Penn State. That hunger started to show up at Ohio State a couple weeks ago, built through Penn State, and will have to progress this week for 60 minutes if MSU is to collect the Big Ten and punch a ticket to the Football Final Four.

Neither Iowa nor MSU would be in this position here if they hadn’t won the turnover battle against their respective opponents so often this fall. MSU and Iowa finished the regular season tied for 4th in the country in Turnover Margin at a +1.17 average. The Hawks lost 8 fumbles and threw 3 interceptions all year. The Spartans lost 6 balls on the ground and 5 through the air. Iowa recovered 8 fumbles and picked off 17 passes, the Spartans picked up 11 fumbles and picked off 14 balls. As crazy as it sounds, these teams are that even in perhaps the second most important stat the sport. If either team wins Saturday’s turnover margin decidedly, the Big Ten Championship is that much more likely to follow the team on the good side of that equation.

It's also cliché to say that 3rd Downs matter, but not as typical to have such an interesting 3rd Down matchup. MSU ranks 7th in country converting 3rd Downs (50.6 %) while the Iowa Defense is 43rd in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage Defense, meaning their opponents got a 1st Down 35.6 % of the time. On the flip side, Iowa's 3rd Down Offense converts 44.2 % of the time (ranked 29th) while the streaky MSU 3rd Down Defense has allowed a 1st Down there 35.8 % of the time (ranked 46th). The numbers suggest a slight edge to MSU but also point out that Iowa can make plays on both sides of the ball, and is not likely to self destruct.

The Spartans are the bigger, faster, stronger, and deeper team this week, but must go out and beat the Hawkeyes. Iowa isn’t built to beat themselves. They’re known as a fundamentally sound team. Their Coaches are known for being fantastic tacticians, but perhaps they’ll have some significant wrinkles in the game plan for MSU this week. Given the Spartans size and strength up front on Defense, Iowa may need something fresh to throw the Spartans off balance and out of whack, such as the Option. MSU should expect a serious battle to the final buzzer.

The Spartans desire for the 2015 Big Ten Championship has been building since the program’s 2014 off season review began in January. It took another step forward during brutal winter workouts before the sun started rising and it was literally freezing outside. Then came Spring Practice, when the 2015 Spartans began to take shape on the field. Next they added the 2015 Freshmen class in August and got through Fall Camp. Twelve games later they have arrived to the exact spot they hoped to be on the first weekend of December, playing at Lucas Oil Stadium for that championship. They are now in position to reach higher and achieve their primary goal of 2015, which of course would also set them up for an opportunity to reach higher yet again for the next one.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. The Detroit Lions should hire Nick Saban as their next Head Coach. If Saban ever wants to be known as one of the best coaches in the history of football, he must win at the NFL level. Saban knows that. If he won in Detroit, he would enter that conversation immediately.
2. Feel like looking way ahead for a minute? The Spartans 2016 bye week is currently scheduled for the second week of that season. That would leave 11 straight games for MSU to close out the season, 12 if they get back to the Big Ten Championship. That return trip won’t happen unless MSU gets to work and somehow gets that bye week moved back no sooner than the fourth week of 2016. A week two bye isn't really a bye, it's just ridiculous.
3. What a turnaround for Northwestern and Pat Fitzgerald in 2015. It looked more likely that Fitz would be out of Evanston headed for Charlottesville (UVA) or another fine institution before December 1, 2015. Instead the Cats won 10 games in the regular season, finally broke ground on the indoor practice facility Fitzgerald believes it can help elevate NU Football into the national conversation, and can threaten to finish safely inside the Top 15 with a significant Bowl win. Simply incredible.
4. My initial view on the coaching moves this week: Georgia downgraded, Miami upgraded, Maryland could’ve done better, and Virginia Tech should’ve done better. Sit tight, the musical coaching chairs are far from done yet.