How do Gophers' early losses to Missouri, San Francisco look now?

It turns out that Jonathan Mogbo and San Francisco are quite good.

Plenty of time has passed to now properly review Minnesota's early-season losses to Missouri, San Francisco and Ohio State. 

Blowing a 20-point second-half lead was really bad when it happened Nov. 16 at home against Missouri, but the loss looks even worse now that the Tigers are sitting at 8-8 through Jan. 15, having lost six of seven with their lone win over lowly Central Arkansas. 

The Gophers led Missouri 59-39 with 11:25 to play before the Tigers closed the game on a 31-9 run. Minnesota led for all but the final 9.9 seconds of the game. It was a killer loss at the time and it could haunt them if they wind up on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament bid in March. 

Minnesota's second loss of the season came at the hands of a San Francisco team that on paper doesn't look great, but the Dons are now 14-4 and in second place in the WCC. They're a legit contender to reach the NCAA Tournament and Jonathan Mogbo, who torched the Gophers with 21 points and 10 rebounds, is a fast riser on a lot of NBA Draft boards. 

Jonathan Mogbo is the most unique story in college basketball, a 5-9, 125-pound combo guard entering high school with zero DI offers upon graduating. Now 6'8, 225, he's lighting up NBA draft models averaging 21 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.7 steals and 1.6 blocks per-40. pic.twitter.com/qyusmJjYQQ

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) January 11, 2024

The Gophers played from behind the entire game, getting within 47-46 before the Dons closed the game on a 29-12 run over the final 13:07. Getting blown out wasn't good, but a road loss to a tourney team is by no means a bad loss. 

Minnesota's third loss came at Ohio State on Dec. 3. The Gophers trailed by 20 points with under 16 minutes to play before Dawson Garcia got red-hot and led Minnesota within six points twice down the stretch before the Buckeyes pulled away for a 10-point victory. 

Overall, the Gophers are 0-2 in Quad 1 games (Ohio State, San Francisco), 2-2 in Quad 2 games (wins over Nebraska and Michigan, losses to Iowa and Indiana), 1-1 in Quad 3 games (Missouri and Maryland) and 9-0 in Quad 4 games. 

The quadrant system helps identity quality of wins and losses and is used heavily by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. For example, a win over a top-30 team at home is about equal to beating a top-75 team on the road. 

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Minnesota having played nine games against Quad 4 competition is a tourney resume killer unless they start earning more Quad 1 and 2 wins. 

Teams placement in specific quadrants is based on their net rating. For example, San Francisco's net rating is 43, and because that game was played at a neutral site it qualifies as a Quad 1 matchup. 

Minnesota's net rating is 97, so Iowa's win over the Gophers at Williams Arena goes down as a Quad 2 victory for the Hawkeyes and a Quad 2 loss for the Gophers (Iowa's net rating is 48). 

The next two games for Minnesota are opportunities to earn Quad 1 wins. They play at Michigan State (net ranking of 22) on Thursday, Jan. 18, and then host Wisconsin (net ranking of 11) next Tuesday, Jan. 23.  

Pharrel Payne of the Gophers battles San Francisco star Jonathan Mogbo / Photo by Kelly Hagenson, University of Minnesota