Iowa sniffing NCAA Tournament bubble is telling for Minnesota

Minnesota having been swept by Hawkeyes could prove critical come Selection Sunday.

Simply being in the conversation as a team on the bubble would be a welcome experience for the Minnesota Gophers men's basketball team, and although they're not yet in that group of teams being talked about, there is a sign of hope as the Iowa Hawkeyes enter the chat. 

Iowa, at 16-11 overall and 8-8 in the Big Ten after winning at Michigan State Tuesday night, is mentioned by ESPN's Joe Lunardi among the group of teams on the bubble in his Wednesday update. 

It's only a nibble, but Lunardi lists Iowa, SMU, Oregon and Princeton as the "next" teams behind the "first four out" and the "next four out." The Hawkeyes are even closer in the eyes of CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, who has them among the "next four out" in his latest projection. 

In other words, there are between 4-8 teams in front of Iowa, at least in the eyes of Lunardi and Palm, vying for one of the "last four in" spots. 

How close is Minnesota to catching a whiff of the bubble? Probably not that far back considering Iowa's resume isn't much more impressive. Let's compare: 

Team	Record	NET/KenPom	Strength of Record	Quad 1 wins
Iowa	16-11	62/51	49	2
Minnesota	16-9	76/68	80	1

Iowa has a slight edge in the NET and KenPom rankings and has played a stronger overall schedule, but as we discussed Tuesday, the selection committee appears to be putting more weight in Quad 1 wins. Iowa is 2-7 in Quad 1 games and the Gophers are 1-5. 

Iowa still has to face Northwestern once and Illinois twice, which are all Quad 1 opportunities. Minnesota has three Quad 1 games left against Nebraska, Northwestern and Illinois, so both teams have resume-boosting opportunities ahead. 

Iowa and Minnesota are both 5-3 in Quad 2 games and the Hawkeyes have a slight edge in Quad 3 with a record of 3-1 compared to Minnesota at 1-1. 

Iowa swept Minnesota so that's not going to be a good look for the Gophers if the two are neck and neck come Selection Sunday (March 17). 

Regardless, Iowa has the scent and the Gophers aren't too far behind. 

Feb 11, 2024; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tony Perkins (11) goes to the basket as Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Cam Christie (24) defends during the second half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena / Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports