Cupcake non-conference schedule gives Gophers razor-thin margin for error

Bottom line: Pressure is on Minnesota to show up in a big way when Big Ten competition starts.

Dec 3, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Ben Johnson reacts to a call during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports / Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

The Gophers officially released the 2024 men's basketball non-conference schedule on Friday. Minnesota will play nine games at home and a two-game tournament in Orlando, but notably zero true road games.

BREAKING: The #Gophers have officially released their entire 11-game non-conference schedule for the 2024 season.

Let's hear some early predictions... 👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/CsADmyjLiD

— Tony Liebert (@TonyLiebert) August 23, 2024

It was previously reported that the Gophers would return to Missouri for a pivotal road game this season based on their home-and-home series, but that has fallen through. There is no word on whether it will be pushed back to 2025, but it has put a major damper on Minnesota's 2024 outlook.

• Oral Roberts: 12-15 last season

• Omaha: 15-18

• North Texas: 19-15

• Yale: 23-10 (13 seed in the NCAA tourney)

• Cleveland State: 21-15

• Central Michigan: 18-14

• Wichita State: 15-19

• Bethune-Cookman: 17-17

• Fairleigh Dickinson: 15-17

• Morgan State: 11-20

Minnesota has never won the Big Ten Tournament in the history of its men's basketball program, which means they have never automatically qualified for the NCAA Tournament. Their 14 appearances in the big dance have come by way of an invitation or an at-large bid thanks to a worthy resume built throughout the season.

Potentially ZERO Quad 1 non-conference opponents?

Heading into the 2024-25 campaign, the Gophers will have an incredibly challenging path to building a tournament-level resume. In recent years the selection committee has shifted to focusing on the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which emphasizes a quad system based on how a team's opponents rank.

A quadrant one opponent is a home game against a team ranked 1-30 in the NET, a neutral-site game against a team ranked 1-50 or an away game against a team ranked 1-75. With over 360 programs in Division I, opponents are split between quadrants 1, 2, 3, and 4 based on how they rank in the NET and the location where the games are played.

Quad 1 wins have become a major factor in determining the strength of a team's NCAA Tournament resume. With zero away games, the Gophers might have one Quad 1 game when they play in the holiday tournament in Orlando, but there is a realistic chance that the Gophers wind up with zero Quad 1 non-conference opponents. Barring a shocking surprise, Wichita State will not be a top-50 team, and that's who the Gophers play first in the holiday tourney. Florida likely will be, Quad 1 and Wake Forest could float around that rank.

All of this means that the Gophers have very little to win in the non-conference when it comes to building a strong resume, but they have a lot to lose. There is a likely scenario that all 11 of their home games will be Quad 3, if not Quad 4, games, and a loss against any of those opponents would be a crater in Minnesota's postseason resume.

Importance of success in Big Ten play

Ultimately, there is a good chance that Minnesota will be favored to win 10 of 11 non-conference games, which could result in a strong record heading into conference play. With 20 Big Ten games on the schedule, they would likely have to win at least 10 to even be considered for an at-large invitation. Since head coach Clem Haskins left the program after the 1998-99 season, the Gophers have reached double-digit conference wins just twice.

After a 19-15 record last season and a trip to NIT, Johnson and the Gophers had momentum heading into his fourth season as head coach. The chaotic nature of the transfer portal is hard for a program like Minnesota to control, but putting together a non-conference schedule is something they can dictate and this season's calendar of cupcakes isn't a good look.

Admittedly, playing an easier non-conference schedule will allow a roster that will feature at least three new starters an opportunity to find a rhythm ahead of the all-important Big Ten schedule.

On the flip side, the result of a weak non-conference slate is Minnesota having razor-thin margins for error if they want any hope of playing in the NCAA Tournament next March.