Despite roster turnover, analytics are promising for 2024-25 Gophers

Some people think Minnesota got better this offseason.

Dec 6, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Ben Johnson reacts to a call during the second half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Analytics have dominated college basketball discussions for the better part of a decade thanks to sites like kenpom.com, but more people like analytics guru Bart Torvik have provided new ways to look at the college hoops landscape. According to Torvik's 2024-25 preseason projections, the Gophers could be a more efficient team this season than they were last season.

Minnesota went through a tumultuous offseason, losing Pharrel Payne, Elijah Hawkins, Joshua Ola-Joseph and Braeden Carrington to the transfer portal and Cam Christie to the NBA. Ben Johnson and his staff managed well by adding a bevy of players from the portal, highlighted by Lu'Cye Patterson, Tyler Cochran, Femi Odukale and Frank Mitchell. The newcomers join returning starters Dawson Garcia and Mike Mitchell Jr., along with true freshman Isaac Asuma, who won the Minnesota Mr. Basketball award while leading Cherry High School to a state championship in March.

After last season's 19-15 campaign, the Gophers ranked 77th in the nation on Torvik's list, which is based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency that help create a power rating. The power rating is supposed to suggest a team's chance of beating an average D1 team and Torvik projects Minnesota to have a 75.67% chance of taking down average D1 teams.

There isn't data to show Minnesota's chances of beating good or elite teams, but one reason the Gophers might be better suited to win more in 2024-25 is experience. Torvik's data suggests that only five teams in the country have more experience than the Gophers, which is indicative of landing a bunch of upperclassman in the transfer portal.

Dawson Garcia, Mike Mitchell, Lu'Cye Patterson, Tyler Cochran, Trey Edmunds, Parker Fox, Brennan Rigsby, Femi Odukale and Caleb Williams are all seniors, while Frank Mitchell is a junior.

Torvik projects the Gophers to be the 60th most efficient offensive team in the country while he ranks them 86th in defensive efficiency. Despite a better projected chance to beat average D1 teams, Torvik's model has the Gophers going 13-13 overall and 8-12 in the 18-team Big Ten.

Overall, the Gophers are ranked third worst in the Big Ten, ahead of only Washington and Penn State.

Bart Torvik