Gophers open as small favorites for pivotal nonconference game against North Texas

Is Wednesday night a 'must-win' against North Texas?

Feb 25, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Ben Johnson during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images / Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

Gophers men's basketball will have its biggest game of the season to date on Wednesday when they host North Texas. Early betting odds favor Minnesota by 2.5 points.

NEWS: #Gophers MBB opens as short (-2.5) point favorites for a pivotal nonconference game tomorrow night at the Barn against North Texas.

The Mean Green are coming off a 42-point win over NAIA Wayland Baptist. Arguably UMN's biggest non-con game at home this season.… pic.twitter.com/OGPsxbOqMp

— Tony Liebert (@TonyLiebert) November 12, 2024

On paper, North Texas doesn't seem like a marquee opponent, but it's quietly been one of the most successful mid-major programs over the last five seasons. The Mean Green have won 20-plus games in five of the last seven seasons, they upset Purdue as a No. 13 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament and they won the NIT in 2022-23.

Led by second-year head coach Ross Hodge, the Mean Green were voted to finish seventh in the preseason American Athletic Conference (ACC) media poll, but popular analytics website KenPom.com ranks them as the second-best team in the conference and the 72nd-best team in the country.

Minnesota will be a massive step up in competition for Hodge's squad. They opened their season with a 17-point win over Evansville and a 42-point win over NAIA school Wayland Baptist. They will have six days off before playing the Gophers.

Led by the guard transfer trio of Atin Wright (Drake), Jasper Floyd (Fairfield) and Johnathan Massie (Longwood), who all averaged 10-plus points per game, North Texas has become known for its defense and methodical slow-pace offensive style. According to KenPom.com, it plasy at the fourth-slowest pace in the entire country, averaging 66.4 possessions per 40 minutes.

Prediction

This game is about as close to a must-win as a college basketball team can have in November. Minnesota's NCAA Tournament chances are not done with a loss, but its path would become much more murky. Saturday's close win over Omaha certainly raises some concern, especially with Mike Mitchell Jr. likely out a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain.

Canisius transfer Frank Mitchell is expected to be a game-time decision as he looks to make his Gophers debut, but Mitchell is likely to miss some time. North Texas is built around guard play, so defensive stopper Femi Odukale might be the X-factor in this game, but the Gophers have an advantage in the frontcourt, and Dawson Garcia, who's questionable to play with a groin injury, needs to have a big game if he can play. I think last week's performance against Omaha will create a fire and lead to some urgency on Wednesday night in a close Minnesota win.

• Score: Minnesota 62, North Texas 58