Analytics predicts outcome of final four Gophers football games

How will Minnesota fare in its final four games of the 2024 regular season?

Oct 26, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck looks on during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Gophers begin a pivotal two-game road stretch this week against Illinois before heading to Rutgers to take on the Scarlet Knights. They will then have one last bye week before their final home game of the season against Penn State and then a road test at Wisconsin to finish out the regular season.

After three straight wins, Minnesota sits at 5-3. How many games does ESPN's FPI matchup predictor expect the Gophers to win? Let's go week-by-week, looking at the percent chance the machine says they have to come away with a victory.

@ Illinois: 54.4%

The Gophers travel to Champaign as betting favorites to take down No. 24 Illinois and ESPN's FPI agrees with the betting markets. A win on Saturday could spark a thrilling finish to the 2024 regular season.

@ Rutgers: 56.9%

On paper, Minnesota's game against Rutgers is the easiest remaining on the schedule. ESPN's FPI agrees, giving the Gophers a 56.9% chance to win. P.J. Fleck will face his protege, head coach Greg Schiano, along with former offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca and former quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. It seems like a prime look-ahead spot for the Gophers.

vs. Penn State: 27.7%

The toughest game remaining on the Gophers' schedule is a date with Penn State, who is currently ranked No. 3 in the country. The matchup will be exactly 262 weeks after Minnesota's thrilling upset over the then-ranked No. 4 Nittany Lions in 2019. ESPN's FPI gives the Gophers a 27.7% chance of pulling off the upset, but Penn State has looked vulnerable this season.

@ Wisconsin: 38.9%

Minnesota will end the season on the road against Wisconsin, but this year's game will take place on Black Friday. ESPN's FPI gives the Gophers a 38.9% chance to win in Madison, something they've done only twice since 1994. A rivlary win on the road could be the perfect way for the Gophers to end an up-and-down 2024 regular season.