Analytics still give Gophers a chance to make College Football Playoff

So, you're telling me there's a chance.

Nov 2, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Jaheim Clarke (25) drags down Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver Daniel Jackson (9) during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Gophers' current four-game winning streak has raised optimism around the program. ESPN's FPI playoff predictor still gives them a chance to make the inaugural 12-team 2024 College Football Playoff.

According to ESPN all of these teams are still alive for the playoffs. They have between a 0.1-1.0% chance of making the playoffs pic.twitter.com/ARSY9mzUd2

— College Football Live (@CollegeFBonX) November 8, 2024

ESPN's College Football Power Index ranks all 134 teams in FBS and the Gophers are currently ranked No. 31. The metric gives them a 9.6% chance to win out and a 0.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. They are the seventh-best team in the Big Ten according to the list.

Giving Minnesota any chance at all of making the College Football Playoff might sound insane (and it is), but they do have a path. It would begin and end with them winning their final three games of the season against Rutgers, Penn State and Wisconsin.

In that scenario, they would be 9-3 with three wins over ranked opponents and they'd be riding a seven-game winning streak. The expanded playoff exists for scenarios like Minnesota's. Let's say that Indiana trips up this week against Michigan, then loses to Ohio State and they have two losses. Minnesota would also likely need to see Iowa trip up against UCLA, Maryland or Nebraska to end the season, but you could make an argument that they would have the third-best resume in the Big Ten in this scenario.

They would likely need to see chaos ensue around the country, specifically in the SEC. If that conference continues to cannibalize itself and then the ACC and Big 12 only get one team in the field, there are seven at large bids to fill.

So, while it might seem impossible for Minnesota to sneak its way into the College Football Playoff, a 0.1% actually seems quite fair. Their potential cinderella run will have to start this week on the road against a pesky Rutgers team.