Computer model favors Gophers to win just one more game this season

Not great, Bob. Not great.

Sep 14, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer (16) warms up before the game against the Nevada Wolf Pack at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Our friends over at Wisconsin Badgers On SI gave us a good idea when they looked at ESPN's matchup predictor to find out how many more games this season the Badgers are favored in the eyes of the computer model. For Wisconsin, it's just two more games. How about the Gophers?

Bad news, Minnesota. The matchup predictor only gives the Gophers the edge in one more game, and that's next week at UCLA. It does give the Gophers nearly a 50-50 chance at home Oct. 26 against Maryland, though that seems a bit low considering Minnesota will be coming off a bye and have a full two weeks to prepare for the Terrapins.

Minnesota's chance to win week-by-week the rest of the season, per the model:

• vs. USC: 28.2%
• at UCLA: 59.1%
• vs. Maryland: 48.2%
• at No. 24 Illinois: 38.1%
• at Rutgers: 34.5%
• vs. No. 7 Penn State: 22.1%
• at Wisconsin: 24.3%

Minnesota, arguably, should be 4-1 rather than 2-3. They had every opportunity to beat North Carolina in Week 1 but they missed 20 tackles and the game-winning field goal at the horn went wide right. They also could've beaten Michigan last week if it weren't for an awful offsides ruling on the onside kick that Minnesota recovered deep in Michigan territory with more than 90 seconds left in the game while trailing by three points.

Minnesota also had Iowa on the ropes in the first half before the Hawkeyes punched them in the mouth in the second half en route to a lopsided home loss in Minneapolis.

The Gophers have been close. Now they need to start finishing games if they want the computer and everyone else to believe in them.