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Expert believes No. 11 USC should be on upset alert against Gophers

The Trojans are favored by nine points despite playing on the road against Minnesota.

Joe Nelson

USC quarterback Miller Moss makes a pass against Michigan during the first half.
USC quarterback Miller Moss makes a pass against Michigan during the first half. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Southern California is ranked No. 11 in the top-25 college football poll but they are entering enemy territory when they visit the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday night. How worried should the Trojans be?

According to the oddsmakers, not at all. USC is favored by nine points despite playing at Minnesota. But college football expert Josh Pate believes the Trojans should be very concerned about a potential upset. Here's why...

"USC, we track this sort of thing, they are the fourth-most traveled FBS team in the last four weeks. They've been all over the place," Pate said on his College Football Show. "Minnesota last week, kind of, sort of, got screwed."

That's kind of true. Minnesota was down 24-3 in the fourth quarter before they stormed back. They were down 27-24 when they recovered an onside kick only to have the officiating crew rule them offsides. The call was so bad that the Big Ten almost immediately got approval from the NCAA to have an official on the line of scrimmage to ensure offsides calls aren't blown in future conference games.

As Pate said, the nation would be looking at a 3-2 Gophers team a lot differently than they do the 2-3 Gophers. Pate then listed four more reasons he has USC on upset alert.

"Here's the problem. This is not a great matchup for USC. I'm just telling you. Here's problem No. 1, kind of: Minnesota has the best pass defense, statistically, in the Big Ten. However, that's with Michigan and Iowa and North Carolina — missing their quarterback baked in — so Minnesota probably does not have the best pass defense in the Big Ten, but they got a good one, they got a good enough one," Pate explained.

"No. 2, they are 16th in pressure rate, so they can get after the quarterback. And No. 3, slow starts have been a chronic problem for USC this year. It's been the case in several weeks now. And No. 4, with Bear Alexander gone, there is one USC defensive lineman that weighs over 300 pounds. Minnesota is 310 (pounds) or heavier across the offensive front. So if they get their kind of quicksand game, if USC cannot sting them early, then they can quickly be drug out in the deep end where they have no interest in being.

"I have concern here. I've got it at at an 8 on my upset alert concern meter."

It oughta be a good one. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. CT and the game will be televised on Big Ten Network.

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Joe Nelson
JOE NELSON

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