Minnesota and Penn State meet for Governor's Victory Bell: 3 keys and prediction

The Gophers' rivalry with Penn State has been surprisingly competitive.

Nov 9, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive lineman Esezi Otomewo (9) holds the Governor Liberty Bell trophy after defeating the Penn State Nittany Lions at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

One of the Gophers football team's five trophy games will take place Saturday against No. 4 Penn State in the battle for the Governor's Victory Bell. Minnesota enters the game as an 11.5-point underdog, but there are three keys for the team to pull off the upset in its final home game of the season at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Limiting Penn State TE Tyler Warren

It's really easy to say that Minnesota needs to slow down Penn State's best player, but the Nittany Lions rely on Warren as a playmaker more than anyone else on their team. He is arguably the favorite for this year's John Mackey Award, and he has accounted for 21.2% of Penn State's total yards this season. The New England Patriots were known to take the opposing team's best player out of the game under Bill Belichick. P.J. Fleck and his Gophers staff need to take a page out of that playbook and let anyone but Warren beat them on Saturday.

Force Drew Allar to make a mistake

Penn State has played in three one-score games this season — a seven-point win against Bowling Green, a three-point win on the road against Southern Cal and a seven-point loss at home to Ohio State. Allar threw an interception in all of those games, and he didn't throw a single one in the other seven games. If Koi Perich, Kerry Brown, Ethan Robinson or anyone in Minnesota's secondary is able to pick off Allar, the Gophers' chance of an upset would rise dramatically.

Rely on your playermakers: Perich, Taylor, Jackson

Minnesota's clearest path to victory in this game is making it messy. Penn State has a more talented roster and the Nittany Lions have advantages all over the field, but it's worth noting the Gophers have a handful of players, like Perich, star running back Darius Taylor and top receiver Daniel Jackson, who just have a knack for making big-time plays. It's hard to predict the Gophers straight up beating Penn State head-to-head for 60 minutes; Minnesota needs to steal possessions and make one or two big plays that are hard for any team to overcome.

Prediction

There are a lot of reasons that make me believe that Minnesota can keep this game within the 11.5-point spread. Fleck has an extra week to prepare, Penn State has played a game in four straight weeks and the Nittany Lions have proven to vulnerable when they turn the ball over, and Minnesota has been able to force turnovers at a high rate. Ultimately, I think the Gophers will have a chance to win this game, but the Nittany Lions have too many playmakers for me to doubt that they can come up in big moments, and I think they leave Minneapolis with a narrow win.

• Score: Penn State 27, Minnesota 24