ESPN Predicts Mississippi State vs. Baylor: Who Will Win The NCAA Tournament First Round Game?

The numbers have been crunched, and the ninth seeded Bears are the favorite in Friday morning's opening round matchup

Mar 13, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) shoots the ball during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Since 2018, eight seeds have gone just 8-16 against nine seeds in the NCAA Tournament. 

Historically, the eight-nine matchup is a coin-flip, with no clear favorite, and naturally, the most consistently competitive contests in the opening round.  

Here's how each higher seed has fared in the Round of 64 in recent years 🥊#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/ZGsQd5ssLj

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2025

This time around, eighth-seeded Mississippi State (21-12) meets ninth-seeded Baylor (19-14) in what, on paper, appears to be yet another 50-50 matchup that can go either way.

But, after winning three of its last five, and with those two losses coming by a total of six points against a pair of top ten squads (then-No. 3 Houston and then-No. 9 Texas Tech), the Bears are seemingly peaking at just the right time. 

On the other end, the Bulldogs have dropped five of seven, and appear to be in the midst of a rough patch at the absolutely worst possible time. 

And with that, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Baylor is expected to continue the recent trend of nine seeds upending the eights, at least as far as ESPN’s analytics are concerned. 

ESPN’s BPI Predictor has the Bears with a 61.4 percent probability of punching their ticket to the second round of the NCAA Tournament with a win over the Bulldogs. 

Fortunately for Mississippi State, it’s been there and done that. Just ask Ole Miss, which was given a 68.4 percent chance of taking down the Bulldogs back in mid-February, but still fell 81-71. 

Now, with another “upset” on its mind Mississippi State heads to Raleigh, North Carolina seeking its first victory in the Big Dance in over 15 years.

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