Why Mississippi State is the Smart Underdog Pick vs. Arizona State

Bulldogs are a good underdog pick on the road late Saturday night against the Sun Devils

Mississippi State Bulldogs cornerback Kelley Jones reacts with fans after the game against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. / Matt Bush-Imagn Images

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Mississippi State travels to Arizona State for a power four matchup at 9:30 p.m. CT on ESPN. Mississippi State is currently listed as a +5.5 underdog to the Sun Devils, a steal pick. 

Last weekend, Mississippi State had an impressive opening game against Eastern Kentucky as they dominated their way to a 56-7 win. Jeff Lebby is the new MSU head coach, and his offense was impressive in week one as Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen went 15-20 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. 

Arizona State looked impressive in their opening 48-7, which likely moved the line heavily in their favor. However, MSU has more talent along the line of scrimmage and will pave the way for Bulldog rushing yards while the defensive line makes key stops on short yardage downs. 

The total for this game is 59.5, which is another interesting line. Both offenses were impressive in week one. Both teams have their biggest worries on the defensive side of the ball and are both high-flying, which could lead to multiple late scores. 

Mississippi State is coming off a five-win season in 2023 under head coach Zach Arnett, who was ultimately fired. Lebby and his new coaching staff did an excellent job in the transfer portal as they completely revamped the offensive line and wide receiver room. 

Arizona State is entering into the second season of the Kenny Dillingham era. The Sun Devils went 3 and 9 a season ago, including back-to-back 30-plus-point losses to end the season. 

An impressive week-one performance has influenced this line, but too much stock has been put into the win. Mississippi State wins the game outright, and the over-hits. 

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