Cowbell Corner

Why Mississippi State’s Matchup with UMass Might Be Closer Than Expected

Mississippi State vs. UMass preview: The Bulldogs are favored, but UMass could pose a surprising challenge. Find out how.

Taylor Hodges

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby walks onto the field after a touchdown against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby walks onto the field after a touchdown against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. / Matt Bush-Imagn Images
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STARKVILLE, Miss. – Could Mississippi State actually lose to Massachusetts?

Absolutely. This is college football. Crazier things have happened. Just ask an Alabama, Tennessee or Notre Dame fan and they’ll tell you, begrudgingly, anything can happen.

Despite the preconceived notions about the two teams meeting at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, the Bulldogs winning over the Minutemen is far from guaranteed.

The odds favor Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 18-point favorites and ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives them a 92.3 percent chance of winning. That still leaves a 7.7 percent chance for UMass to win.

How could the Minutemen win? There are several recipes they can follow to pull off the upset, but let’s be more specific than “turnovers” and “luck” this time.

Here’s a surprising stat about UMass: The Minutemen’s defense ranks No. 36 in FBS in total defense and, even more surprising, No. 6 in passing yards allowed (157.5 yards per game).

However, upon further inspection, opponents may be choosing the easier option of running the ball. UMass ranks No. 100 in rushing defense (170.5 ypg) and rank No. 103 in scoring defense (30 points per game).

The Bulldogs have gotten better at running the ball (at least until they played Arkansas), but they still rank just 90th in the nation in rushing (131.1 ypg).

It’s not hard to imagine a game where Mississippi State struggles to run the ball and UMass has a pass defense that is good and not just a result of team’s not throwing the ball much.

It’s a big IF, but if the Bulldogs’ offense can’t move the ball they’ll have to rely on their defense to stop UMass. And, at this point, does anyone trust Mississippi State’s defense to stop anyone?

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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