Mississippi State vs. Arkansas: Predicting Saturday’s SEC Showdown

The Razorbacks represent the Bulldogs' best chance at winning an SEC game

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. (0) drops back to pass against Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Shemar Stewart (4) during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. / Matt Bush-Imagn Images

STARKVILLE, Miss. – Mississippi State has its best chance to win an SEC game this season on Saturday morning. But can the Bulldogs beat an Arkansas team that handed Tennessee its first loss of the season?

Absolutely. I’ve said it a million times and I’ll say it again. Anything can happen.

Realistically, though, the Bulldogs have a real shot at snapping their six-game losing streak and not ending the season without a conference win.

For starters Arkansas is, well, Arkansas. Just look at its results through seven games.

The Razorbacks made NCAA history against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then lost in double overtime to Oklahoma State after leading 21-7. They then struggled against UAB and beat Auburn by 10 points before losing to Texas A&M 21-17. The next week, Arkansas upset then-No. 4 Tennessee 19-14. Two weeks later, the Razorbacks got blown out by then-No. 8 LSU 34-10.

So, who knows what Razorback team will show up Saturday in Starkville.

Mississippi State has played better in its last three games against ranked SEC teams (Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M), especially on offense. True freshman Michael Van Buren has surpassed expectations considering the level of competition he’s faced.

The Razorbacks have the lowest-ranked defense Van Buren has faced and it’s not unreasonable to expect him to continue his upward trajectory. However, it’s not reasonable to expect him to win a shootout.

The issue for Mississippi State will be when Van Buren and the offense are on the sidelines. Mississippi State hasn’t been good defensively this season, ranking in the bottom quarter of most FBS defensive statistics.

Arkansas won’t be the best offense the Bulldogs face this season, but if they want a SEC win they’ll have to play better on defense. That may mean getting lucky with an opposing team underestimating the Bulldogs’ defense and Mississippi State keeping the other team from scoring points.

Mississippi State’s coaches and players, whether or not they’ll ever admit it, know this is their best chance at a SEC win and will come prepared and motivated.

There won’t be any more opportunities for this, so, let’s be optimistic and predict a Mississippi State win.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

Mississippi State 31, Arkansas 28

Bonus Prediction: Mississippi State will score the first points of the game. The easy pick would be a field goal, but a big touchdown reception by Kevin Coleman Jr. or Kelly Akharaiyi isn’t unrealistic.