Mississippi State vs Toledo Prediction: Will the Bulldogs’ Win At Home?

The Bulldogs’ path to a bowl game could become a lot more difficult with a loss to Toledo

Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker John Lewis (5) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

STARKVILLE, Miss. – Saturday night’s game against Toledo is almost a must-win game if Mississippi State wants to go bowling in December.

A win keeps the Bulldogs on track for six wins without having to pull of an upset against a Top 10 team like Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Missouri or Ole Miss. Sure, getting wins against Florida, Texas A&M and Arkansas won’t exactly be a cakewalk, but it’s a more realistic scenario for the Bulldogs to win six games and go to a bowl game.

A loss, though, would require the Bulldogs to win at least one of their games against a Top 10 team. (Of course, if we’re talking about a Toledo win late Saturday night then there are bigger issues than whether or not they’ll go to a bowl game.)

An upset by the visiting Rockets isn’t as crazy as it seems.

Toledo hasn’t had a losing season since 2009, which is the fifth-longest streak in FBS behind Boise State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Alabama. Beating an SEC wouldn’t anything new either. The Rockets beat then-No. 18 Arkansas 16-12 back in 2015.

The Rockets also returned 45 players from last season’s 11-3 squad including eight starters and more than half of the defensive starters have played their entire collegiate career for the Rockets.

In two games, Toledo has looked good and capable of pulling off an upset win. But Mississippi State isn’t Duquesne and UMass.

The Bulldogs won’t have the size mismatches from last week, so don’t expect for the Rockets to win in the trenches. Also, fully expect the Mississippi State defensive line wanting to make a statement after getting dominated to the point of near-embarrassment.

Toledo’s talented receivers will have their moments, but Mississippi State’s defense will be able to slow down the Rockets’ offense.

For the Bulldogs’ offense, it’ll be all about not committing any major mistakes and not turning the ball over. Do that and let their talented playmakers shine (I think we’re going to see a big day from Kelly Akharaiyi).

Mississippi State vs Toledo Final Score Prediction

Mississippi State: 42
Toledo: 35

Bonus Prediction: Blake Shapen throws 4 TDs and Akharaiyi has one of those TDs, as well as at least 100 receiving yards.

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