Cowbell Corner

Texas vs. Mississippi State: The Ultimate Recipe for an Upset Victory

What does Mississippi State need to do to upset No. 1 Texas? Dive into the key factors that could lead to a historic win for the Bulldogs

Taylor Hodges

Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Johnnie Daniels (20) reacts with teammates after a touchdown against the Florida Gators during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Johnnie Daniels (20) reacts with teammates after a touchdown against the Florida Gators during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. / Matt Bush-Imagn Images
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Mississippi State football fans will be hard-pressed to find anyone predicting the Bulldogs to go on the road and upset No. 1 Texas.

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Longhorns a 98.1 percent chance of winning Saturday against Mississippi State. Considering Mississippi State lost to Florida (2-2, 1-1 SEC) last week and Toledo the week before that, the 1.9 percent chance the Bulldogs are getting is generous.

But these types of games are played because anything can happen (and because the SEC scheduled it). One of the best things about college football are the upsets. It’d be hard to find a bigger upset than the Bulldogs marching into DKR Memorial Stadium with a true freshman making his first-ever start and returning to Starkville victorious.

What a Mississippi State Upset Would Look Like Against No. 1 Texas?

So, what would a Mississippi State win against the top-ranked Longhorns look like?

Well, are you familiar with the movie A Perfect Storm? It stars George Clooney and Mark Whalberg and is about a fishing boat caught in the Atlantic Ocean with three hurricanes merging into one massive storm. Basically, the Bulldogs need to be the storm and Longhorns the (spoiler warning) doomed small fishing vessel.

For the Bulldogs to win, the Longhorns will need to be a trap game victim. They’ll need to be looking ahead toward the Red Rivalry game against No. 21 Oklahoma and No. 2 Georgia the next week.

It’s easy to see how Texas could overlook Mississippi State, but that’s just one ingredient in this upset recipe. The Bulldogs will also have to play their best game of the season.

True freshman Michael Van Buren won’t need to have Heisman-worthy performance, but he can’t commit any turnovers. Jeff Lebby will have a game plan to attack Texas and, if executed to perfection (which is not hyperbole), will lead to enough points to win.

But none of that will matter if Mississippi State’s defense can’t stop the Longhorns’ offense.

Whether Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning starts at quarterback, the Bulldogs’ defense will need to force turnovers. Forcing three-and-outs would be nice, but they’ll need interceptions and fumbles to give the offense more scoring chances.

Of course, the offense will need to take advantage of those extra opportunities. But if it does, Mississippi State will pull off the upset.

Is this likely to happen? No. But it’s fun to dream.

Read More Mississippi State Bulldogs On SI:

Mississippi State Football Faces Texas: Offensive Stats You Need to Know

5 Stats That Show How Dominant Texas’ Defense Has Been

Mississippi State Football: 5 Longhorns to Watch Against Bulldogs

Mississippi State Football: Freshman QB to Start Against No. 1 Texas

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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