Columbia Regional Preview: How Missouri Stacks Up Against Its Opening-Round Competition

With Omaha, Indiana and Washington visiting mid-Missouri, Mizzou Softball Stadium should feature high-quality softball this upcoming weekend.

Missouri Athletics

For the first time since 2021, Missouri softball is hosting a Regional.

Not only that, the Tigers are doing it with potentially greener pastures ahead, as their No. 7 seed gives them a shot at hosting a Super Regional, which they also did in 2021. Should they make it there, they'd face the winner of the Durham Regional, which features No. 10 Duke, Morgan State, Utah and South Carolina.

The fate of MU's seed was very much up in the air heading into Selection Sunday. However, according to NCAA Softball Selection Committee Chair Kurt McGuffie, Missouri's strength of schedule and number of quality wins certainly helped along with a deep run in the SEC Tournament.

"How they play late does move them up some. But Missouri also...a lot of good wins for Missouri," McGuffie said. "13 top-25 wins for Missouri. They went 3-1 over LSU, 2-2 with Florida, 24 top-50 wins, 8-2 in their last 10...Missouri came on strong, but all year, they consistently had wins in that first quartile, that first quad, against top-25 teams."

However, in order to get closer to Oklahoma City, they'll have to knock off the three teams coming to Columbia first. It's a group that features a conference champion and a couple of solid high-major squads that've given plenty of good teams trouble this season.

Omaha Mavericks (41-13, 14-4 Summit)

Quick Stats

RPI: 69

Record versus Quadrant I opponents (RPI): 0-4

Quadrant II: 12-3

Quadrant III: 10-4

Quadrant IV: 25-4

Best wins: At Nebraska (51 RPI), South Dakota State 3x (63 RPI), James Madison (65 RPI)

Worst losses: St. Thomas (RPI 238), at South Dakota (RPI 224), N Tarelton State (203 RPI)

Where they excel

The back-to-back Summit League champions are a very similar to Missouri in terms of roster construction and style of play.

Led primarily by upperclassmen, the Mavericks aren't very flashy. They don't hit many home runs, don't steal too often and weren't even the best team in their own conference.

Instead, Omaha has created most of its success by grinding the opposition into the ground, and that effort has been led by sheer dominance in the circle.

Similarly to the Tigers with Laurin Krings and Cierra Harrison, the starting pitching rotation for the Mavericks is a 1-2 punch featuring Kamryn Meyer and Sydney Nuismeyer. However, with all due respect to Nuismeyer, Meyer is the brightest star in the circle as not just the most dominant pitcher in the Summit League, but throughout all of college softball as well.

Meyer's list of accolades and mind-boggling stats could probably reach Columbia from Omaha with room to spare. Nicknamed the "Queen of K's", Meyer has torn through the Summit League since she became the team's top starter in 2022. The Summit League Pitcher of the Year is the conference's all-time leader in strikeouts with 1,017 and has registered 55 complete games, 26 shutouts, 35 games with at least 10 strikeouts and a 1.53 average ERA over the past three seasons.

Looking at her pitch tendencies, Meyer oftentimes blew hitters away with fastballs and riseballs. That was very apparent in her 14-inning, 21-strikeout shutout of Kansas City in the Summit League tournament on May 9, as the Roos couldn't seem to catch up with Meyer's wicked heaters. Unless something wonky happens between now and Friday evening, expect Meyer to face Missouri in the regional opener.

As if hitting against Meyer and the rest of Omaha's pitchers wasn't tough enough, behind them is a defense that's one of the most mistake-free in the sport. Their fielding percentage of .980 is tied with Boston, Oklahoma and fellow Columbia Regional foe Washington for the third-highest in the nation.

At the plate, the Mavericks are balanced and disciplined. Six players recorded at least 20 RBIs this season, and their 2.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranked 21st in the country, two behind Missouri. Their two best batters, Maggie O'Brien and Lynsey Tucker, have been lynchpins of consistency at the top of the lineup. O'Brien has gone back-to-back games without a hit just twice all season, which included an 18-game hit streak that last over a month. Tucker has also recorded at least one hit in 10 of her last 12 games.

Where they struggle

On paper, the argument against the Mavericks is elementary: Omaha just isn't as good as Missouri.

While OU knocked off numerous high-major teams in Nebraska, Arizona State and Purdue (the latter of which they swept in West Lafayette), the Sun Devils and Boilermakers were among the worst high-major teams in the nation this season. And although the sample size is small, the Mavericks were also smacked around against tough competition.

At the Bear Down Fiesta in February, they played two games apiece against Arkansas (RPI 14) and Arizona (RPI 18). They were run-ruled in both contests against the Wildcats and lost by a combined final score of 14-4 in both games against the Razorbacks.

The first game against Arkansas saw Meyer turn in one of the worst performances of her career, as she allowed eight hits and five earned runs with just three strikeouts in five innings of work. Her style also doesn't cater to any major weaknesses of Missouri's hitters. While the Tigers have struggled against opposing teams' top pitchers this season, the main pitch they've had trouble with the most is the off-speed, which isn't Meyer's strongest pitch.

Offensively, production outside of O'Brien and Tucker exists, but it hasn't been nearly as consistent. Their home run leader, Sydney Thomasson, hasn't hit one since Mar. 16 and is two for her last 28. Outside of O'Brien and Tucker, only one other player, Sydney Ross, is hitting above .300.

The Verdict

On Apr. 3, Ohio Valley Conference champion Southeast Missouri State provided the blueprint on how a mid-major could knock off Missouri. SEMO star pitcher Paytience Holman threw a complete game shutout in a 1-0 win, allowing just three hits to a Tiger squad that looked off-balance at the plate all afternoon.

However, Holman was an off-speed pitcher; with Meyer, a fireballer, the Tigers have proven that they can handle heat at the plate. The game against SEMO also presented a unique set of circumstances; it was a mid-week game before a big road series against Arkansas that upcoming weekend, which head coach Larissa Anderson admitted after the game could've been a reason for the team's struggles that afternoon.

"They came out here to win, and we really didn't match their energy and their competitiveness," Anderson said after the loss.

But with the stakes as high as they will be this weekend, it's tough to imagine Missouri, a team who's been propelled by energy this season, won't bring it this time around.

Washington Huskies (31-13, 13-10 Pac-12)

Quick Stats

RPI: 24

Quadrant I: 9-12

Quadrant II: 11-1

Quadrant III: 5-0

Quadrant IV: 6-0

Best wins: UCLA 2x (RPI 7), Stanford (RPI 8), Arizona 2x (RPI 18), at California 2x (RPI 25)

Worst losses: Arizona State (RPI 90)

Where they excel

In 2011, Missouri entered the NCAA Tournament as the No. 5 overall seed. After a smooth-sailing regional performance other than a loss to DePaul, the Tigers met No. 12 Washington in the Super Regional, where they trounced the Huskies in two games for a trip to OKC.

Two years later, Missouri was the No. 6 overall seed. After barely escaping Stony Brook and Hofstra, the Tigers met No. 11 Washington in the Super Regional, where they fell in two heartbreaking one-run losses.

If the Tigers want to take two out of three 11 years later, they'll likely have to face a pack of Huskies that's not as formidable as it once was, but is still absolutely capable of exiting Columbia victorious.

For one, Washington did not play with their food this season, and they rarely ever got blown out. They only lost by more than two runs four times, and their lone defeat outside of Quadrant I was to Arizona State.

Like Omaha, Washington is pristine on defense. As mentioned previously, the two are tied with Boston and Oklahoma for the third-highest fielding percentage in the nation, and no team has committed fewer errors than the Huskies.

Offensively, Washington is a team that former Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane would've really enjoyed. Their .408 on-base percentage ranks 16th in the nation, and their .546 slugging percentage ranks 10th.

The solid hitting is also fairly spread out. Five players have hit at least seven home runs, eight players have at least 30 hits, and eight players bat at least .300 (Olivia Johnson bats .299, for what it's worth). The Huskies have also shown an ability to register huge offensive innings, as 22 half-innings have seen them score four or more runs. One of those instances came against Maryland on Feb. 29, when Washington completed a six-run comeback to defeat the Terrapins that was capped off with a walk-off grand slam by Johnson.

Where they struggle

A lot of UW's struggles have come at the worst possible time: recently.

After starting conference play 14-5, the Huskies ended the season losing four straight and six of their last seven, including a run-rule defeat to Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament. The offense has also gone cold, as they only reached four runs just once in that seven-game stretch.

While Washington achieved a lot of success with big innings, they've also fallen victim to big innings from the opposition. UW has given up at least four runs in six separate half-innings this season; that wild comeback against Maryland, for example, needed to happen because they gave up six runs in the top of the first inning.

On the other side, Missouri hasn't been shaken nearly as badly by big innings as Washington. The Tigers have only allowed more than four runs in an inning twice this season, with one coming against Tennessee, one of the top teams in the country.

The Verdict

The past doesn't have too much to do with the present in this context, but it is noteworthy that 2024 marks Washington's 30th consecutive appearance in a Regional. Last season, they made it all the way to the Women's College World Series.

The moment likely won't be too big for them. The Huskies have been in this situation plenty of times; should UW and MU match up, a close contest would be unsurprising.

Indiana Hoosiers (40-18, 12-11 Big Ten)

Quick Stats

RPI: 46

Quadrant I: 7-14

Quadrant II: 8-1

Quadrant III: 7-3

Quadrant IV: 18-0

Best wins: N Northwestern (RPI 28), N Oregon (RPI 34), at Florida Atlantic (RPI 41)

Worst losses: N Gardner-Webb (RPI 117), Wisconsin 2x (RPI 106), Purdue (RPI 91)

Where they excel

The Hoosiers barely made it to the Big Dance. They were one of the last four teams in, but the main reasons for their admission make them an interesting Wild Card.

As McGuffin mentioned in the post-Selection Show press conference, Indiana's resume did them a lot of favors. The Hoosiers defeated several tournament teams in Northwestern, Oregon and Florida Atlantic to go along with an appearance in the Big Ten Championship game.

Statistically, Indiana is an exciting offensive team. They get on-base (16th in the nation in OBP), score often (16th in runs per game), hit lots of home runs (24th in home runs per game) and steal plenty of bases (16th in stolen bases per game).

Their lineup is also a lethal combination of powerful and consistent. Seven batters have started all 58 games thus far (Second Team All-Conference selection Aly VanBrandt has started 53). All eight have an OPS north of .850 and at least 40 hits.

Where they struggle

A big part of why Indiana almost missed the dance was the fact that they didn't pick up too many quality wins and sported an alarming amount of bad losses.

In the non-conference slate, Indiana fell to Gardner-Webb and almost lost to Valparaiso (RPI 285). IU also squeaked out close wins against North Carolina Central (RPI 264) and Oakland (RPI 169). They also got demolished by Florida in two games against the Gators, although they played Arizona close in two games against the Wildcats.

In the Big Ten slate, Indiana didn't look great against teams in a conference that's far from collectively strong compared to other conferences. The Hoosiers were swept by Penn State and Michigan, and they lost two of three to Wisconsin and Northwestern.

On the mound, Indiana fared pretty well with a 1-2 punch of Sophie Klieman and Brianna Copeland. However, the Hoosiers allowed the most walks in the conference, and against a team as disciplined as Missouri, erratic pitching will likely cost them if it pops up.

The Verdict

The argument for why Indiana would fall to Missouri on paper is similar to Omaha's: the Hoosiers haven't fared very well against quality competition, which they'll be faced with in Columbia.

If Missouri and Indiana run into each other, the Hoosiers will need their offense to pop; if they go cold, that could spell doom for a potential upset.