Wolfpack Faces Challenging Road Ahead
The NC State basketball team reached the midway point in its ACC schedule with Monday's loss to North Carolina.
Although its 5-5 conference record is unquestionably a disappointment, especially considering the teams it has played thus far, the Wolfpack's 14-7 overall record still has it in position to earn its way back into the NCAA tournament after barely missing out a year ago.
In order to have a realistic shot at landing on the right side of the Selection Sunday bubble, it will likely take seven wins in the final 10 games of the regular season, That won't be easy, considering that the most difficult part of State's ACC schedule is still ahead.
How difficult is it?
Consider that the Wolfpack has yet to play any of the top four teams in the current league standings -- Louisville, Duke, Florida State and Syracuse. The cumulative conference record of State's first 10 ACC opponents thus far is 31-47 (91-70 overall). The cumulative conference record of its final 10 ACC opponents is 45-42 (118-66).
If there's one thing coach Kevin Keatts and his enigmatic Wolfpack have going for it, it's that there are no dominant teams in the conference this season.
As Keatts pointed out Monday, every league game is just as winnable as it is loseable.
"There’s a lot of basketball to be played and honestly we've got a lot of teams that can determine our fate whether we win or lose those games," he said. "We've got some really good teams at home that are coming in here to the PNC and then we've some guys on the road.
"But we need to fix our issues with mental and physical toughness if we want to win those games. That’s what it’ll come down to. On any night, any team in this league can beat yo. But the fortunate thing is this year you can beat anyone as well."
Here's a look at the Wolfpack's remaining games and the challenge it has ahead of it:
Saturday, Feb. 1 vs Louisville: The Cardinals are the hottest team in the ACC right now with seven straight wins after Wednesday's win at Boston College. They're 18-3 (9-1 ACC) and ranked sixth in the nation. Coach Chris Mack's team presents an especially difficult challenge because of their frontcourt duo of 6-foot-7 Jordan Nwora and 6-11 Steven Enoch is even more formidable than the UNC pairing of Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot that terrorized the Wolfpack on Monday. It should help State that Manny Bates will be back closer to full strength after playing only 16 minutes against the Tar Heels in his first game back from injury. But even so, the Wolfpack will have to bring their "A" game ton put this one in the W column.
Wednesday, Feb. 5 at Miami: State won the first meeting between these teams 80-63 at PNC Arena on Jan. 15 and the injury-riddled Hurricanes have been without their best player, point guard Chris Lykes, for the past couple of games. But while this one would seem to be a slam dunk, it's just the kind of game that the Wolfpack has traditionally struggled in -- on the road against a vulnerable opponent. Regardless of Lykes' availability, it's hardly a gimme.
Tuesday, Feb. 11 at Syracuse: The Carrier Dome is one of the tougher places to play in the ACC and coach Jim Boeheim's matchup zone is one of the most confounding defenses to face. State has had its trouble against zones this season, most recently at Georgia Tech last Saturday, which means the good Markell Johnson is going to have to show up for this one, It also means that someone, be it Johnson, Braxton Beverly, C.J. Bryce or anyone else, is going to have to knock down some of the open 3-point looks they're inevitably going to get.
Sunday, Feb. 16 at Boston College: Like the game at Miami, this is a game the Wolfpack absolutely has to win, even though it's on the road. The Eagles certainly aren't world beaters, but they are better than they have been in recent years and they're above .500 at home. And chances are there won't be many people in the seats at Conte Forum, meaning that the Wolfpack will have to find a way to generate its own energy.
Wednesday, Feb. 19 vs. Duke: The Blue Devils did lose to Stephen F. Austin, at Cameron no less, so anything is possible. And the Wolfpack has always played Duke tough at PNC Arena. A win here would strengthen State's postseason resume considerably.
Saturday, Feb. 22 vs Florida State: The Seminoles will drop slightly from their current national ranking of No. 5 after Tuesday's loss at Virginia. But they're still as difficult an opponent as the Wolfpack will face down the stretch. FSU ranks second in the ACC in scoring offense and has the league's best turnover margin. So it will take an efficient performance on both ends of the court to have a chance at this one.
Tuesday, Feb. 25 at UNC: This is State's chance at payback for Monday's loss to the shorthanded Tar Heels. Cole Anthony should be back by then, so it will be a different UNC team than the one the Wolfpack faced the first time around. But for some reason, State seems to play better at the Dean Dome than when facing coach Roy Williams' team at home. Its two most recent wins in the series -- in 2018 and 2015 -- have come in Chapel Hill.
Saturday, Feb. 29 vs Pittsburgh: The Panthers are well coached, they're physical and they play hard, so the Wolfpack will have to match their effort. Sophomore Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowan are two of the best ACC guards no one has heard about and Jordan Champagine is an underrated freshman. So the Wolfpack can't just show up in a game it can't afford to lose to have a shot at the field of 68.
Monday, March 2 at Duke: It's Duke. At Cameron. Enough said.
Saturday, March 8 vs. Wake Forest: The Deacons should be playing out the string by this time and it will likely be to be coach Danny Manning's last regular season game. But Wake has always given the Wolfpack fits, so you just never know. And you remember what happened last year on Senior Night.
This year's ACC tournament will be in Greensboro from March 10-14. Where the Wolfpack is seeded and how many games it will need to win to put itself on the right side of the bubble will depend on how well it negotiates its way through these next 10 games.
"I still feel like we’re in the thick of it," junior forward D.J. Funderburk said. "It’s a great league we play in. Hopefully we can get these last 10 wins in the ACC season and focus on what’s next."
