A Season-to-Season Statistical Summary for Husker Supporters

ThotDoc crunches the year-over-year numbers from 2023 and 2024

Red balloons fly after the Huskers' first scoring drive of the game for the first time since 2022. / Amarillo Mullen

Another long off-season is upon us, and with that it seems we have an endless opportunity to dissect the season that was and prognosticate what it is to come. I wanted to take a look at what was different in Matt Rhule’s second season versus his initial campaign and what we may look forward to next year.

Besides the obvious 1.5 game improvement from a 5-7 to a 7-6 record and the resultant opportunity for 15 bowl practices and a game win, I took a deeper dive into the statistics from this year and last to see what changed for better or worse. Is the Rhule era on an upward trajectory or is it staying stagnant? I think there is definite evidence we are heading the right direction but the numbers are far from eye-popping

Last year the strength of the team was defense and this year the same was true although the difference wasn’t quite as striking as the offense improved somewhat. Most significant was a 5.5 points per game increase in scoring from 18 to 23.5 points per game. Total offense was 62.0 yards per game better (from 297 to 359 ypg) with the passing game realizing a 108.5 yards per game improvement and the rushing offense dropping by 46.5 yards per game. Dylan Raiola and an upgrade in the receiving corps accounted for this as Raiola threw for a freshman record 2,823 yards versus last year’s combined output of Heinrich Haarberg, Chubba Purdy and Jeff Sims only totaling 1631 yards. In addition, Raiola had a completion percentage of 67.15 versus last year’s trio at 52.11%. Even with the increase in passing yards there were only three more passing touchdowns this year (13 vs 10) which may be accounted for by a combination of the Husker struggles in the red zone and the addition of Dante Dowdell on the goal line.

In terms of receiving, our top four receivers this year Jahmal Banks (587 yards), Isaiah Neyor (455 yds), Jacory Barney (447 yds), and Thomas Fidone (373 yds) all had more yards receiving than last year’s leader Billy Kemp (310 yds). Regarding rushing yards, last year's leading rusher was quarterback Heinrich Haarberg with 447 yards. This year Dante Dowdell (614 yds) and Emmett Johnson (600 yds) both surpassed that total.

Another significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball was fewer turnovers. They reduced total fumbles from 31 to 16 and lost fumbles from 15 to 7. Interceptions improved from 16 to 12 with Raiola accounting for 11 of those picks. That’s a total drop in turnovers from 31 to 19 which still leaves room for improvement if a reasonable goal is no more than one per game.

The third down conversion rate was 4.46% better this season (42.37-37.91) while the fourth down conversion rate was 10.87% worse (39.13-50.0). Some of that 4th down stat may be due to the lack of faith early in the season in the placekicking performance.

Overall, on offense, some significant strides were made in establishing more of an offensive identity. Last year there was none. There was an upgrade in talent in the skill positions which certainly helped and the addition of Dana Holgerson was a necessary move to get the most out of the talent on the field. Here’s hoping that the offense next year can further cut turnovers, be more consistent on third down and finish in the red zone. I think that surviving the challenges that come with playing a true freshman quarterback will result in a significant leap in production next year. Offensive line play will also need to be improved if any kind of balance in run-pass production can be realized.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Blackshirts surrendered 1.2 more points per game this season than last (19.5 vs 18.3) but if you remove the butt ugly Indiana aberration from that stat, the defense allowed 1.9 points less than last season. Unfortunately, we can’t erase that repugnant reality. The defense allowed just 22.2 yards more game this year over 2023 (317.9 vs 295.7), so with the offensive improvement, the net difference in yards was plus 40 yards per game. The defense gave up 8.3 more yards per game this year rushing and 13.9 yards per game through the air.

The defenders recovered 1 more fumble this year (6 vs 5) and had two more interceptions (11 vs 9) with three of those pick 6 returns whereas last year they had none. Overall, there was a significant improvement in the turnover margin as this year the Huskers were at -2 compared with a -17 last season. Obviously, most of that improvement was with the offense, but the defense can make a big step forward if they can nab 9 more takeaways to get to an average of 2 per game.

Believe it or not, the defense actually had a 1.45% improvement on third down conversion percentages (35.22 vs 36.67) but were 1.61% worse on fourth down (40.74 vs 39.17) even with holding Boston College to 0 for 4 on fourth in the bowl game. A 40% conversion rate on fourth down is a recipe for more losses if the defense can’t get off the field. This year’s defense garnered two fewer sacks (30 vs 32) but did net five more tackles for loss (81-76).

Isaac Gifford led the defense in stops again this year but had 13 fewer tackles this year (73 vs 86). Generally speaking, unless you are a blitz heavy defense, you would like to see more tackles from your linebackers and linemen than from the secondary. I looked at the top ten tacklers from last year and this season and they were both split 5 (LBs and DL) and 5 (S and DBs). However, in both years the secondary produced more tackles (254 in ’23 and 263 in ’24) than the front end of the defense (231 in ’23 and 224 in ’24). Of larger concern, the difference this year was 39 this year vs 23 last year. This all may be inconsequential if the offense can stay on the field more and if the defense stiffens in the red zone like they did many times this season.

Special teams were an apparent problem area but interestingly the field goal percentage was better this year than last (68.42 vs 60). Even with the bad snaps and John Hohl missing his first five kicks, placekicking rebounded well and finished 13 of 19 versus 9 of 15 last year. The punt return game remains extremely anemic even though the total punt return yardage improved from 48 yards to 73 yards. Another concern was that the Huskers had fewer kickoff return yards this year than our opponents whereas last year it was reversed. It’s all pretty pathetic when you see an Iowa kickoff return of 100 yards Monday. It’s been a while since Nebraska has taken a return to the house. Bottom line, special teams have to help more than hurt for the record to improve and for the Huskers to contend for championships.

In summary, the offense this year was much improved over last year but needs to get much more consistent and bump up that scoring total. I think they will. The defense was slightly down over last year but was pretty stout in the red zone. Special teams have stunk both years although with a better long snapper, the placekicking numbers could see marked improvement. And when you lament a relative lack of progress, consider that the Huskers were in 7 one-score games out of 13 and lost 5 of them. Winning just two of those five (Illinois and Iowa were especially galling) and the Huskers finish 9-4. We are closer than we were but have to get better at closing out the close ones and putting weaker teams away before the fourth quarter. Go Big Red!!

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