Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football at Ohio State

After a bad effort against Indiana, Nebraska football gets its toughest task of the season. Can the Huskers bounce back?

Oct 19, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) prepares to snap the ball during the second quarter of a game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

A week after a futile effort against one of the best offenses in college football, Nebraska gets a second chance at playing an elite college football offense. The Husker’s effort in Bloomington was disappointing in many ways. While I have almost no expectations of the Huskers being able to pull out a win in Columbus, this game could be the most crucial game of the season. How Nebraska responds after a lousy effort against Indiana will be a massive indicator of the culture Matt Rhule is trying to build.

I wrote about Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke's historic pace in the playoff era in my Indiana preview. Ohio State’s Will Howard isn’t far behind Rourke, ranking third in the nation for EPA per drop back. He had a great game against Oregon and put the Buckeyes in a great position to win despite his mistake that cost Ohio State a shot at a game-winning field goal. Like Rourke, he’s a veteran player who can make the right plays. As a team, Ohio State ranks fifth in EPA/pass and third in passing success rate.

An Arbitrary Analytics passing graph. / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola’s season EPA has taken an unfortunate turn downward over the last two games. Some of his struggles are likely due to most true freshmen' challenges acclimating to college football. However, some are reporting that he does have a lingering ankle injury that’s affecting his play. Every game on the schedule after Ohio State is winnable with a healthy Raiola. I’ve called for the Huskers to try to get Heinrich Haarberg more involved with a quarterback run. This might be an excellent game to get Raiola rested for the season's home stretch.

Confirmed with a source that this isn’t the first time that ankle has gotten banged up this season. It’s something that’s been lingering for a few weeks and is affecting how he’s able to push off on his throws.

— Josh Peterson (@joshtweeterson) October 21, 2024

The Buckeyes back their top-five passing offense with a top-10 rushing offense. Both Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have done a good job of avoiding negative runs. They’re also both very adept at breaking off big runs for 10+ yards. The Blackshirt's defense will have their hands full containing these two talented backs a week after their worst performance against the run since the 2022 season. Ohio State is sixth in EPA/play when running and has the 11th-best success rate on the ground.

An Arbitrary Analytics rushing graph. / Arbitrary Analytics

The Huskers' running game against Indiana was atrocious. For the third time this season, they were held under 3 YPC, with their only win coming against Rutgers in such games. I’d like to see Heinrich Haarberg get in the mix more in the running game. Even if the chances of the run are predictable with him in the game, the Huskers can still create a varied running attack, working with Jacory Barney and Janiran Bonner in the mix. The Huskers rank 46th in the season's passing and rushing success rate.

While most Nebraska fans are probably sick of hearing the phrase, I hope Nebraska gets a moral victory in this game. What exactly does this look like? Nebraska needs to force a punt in the first half. The offense needs to score at least 14 points in this game. Finally, special teams must avoid significant mistakes that give the Buckeyes hidden yardage.

If the Huskers can do this, they will cover the spread and inspire more hope for the season's final four games.

MORE: Week 9 College Football Matchups to Watch

MORE: I-80 Club: Are We Done Having a Good Time?

MORE: What is Nebraska Facing in Ohio State Wide Receiver Jeremiah Smith?

MORE: Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Inferno as Nebraska Travels to Columbus for Its Second Midterm Exam

MORE: Nebraska Volleyball to Play Big Ten Opponent at Pinnacle Bank Arena in 2025

---

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.