Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football at USC

The Huskers and Trojans are two desperate teams that made notable changes during their bye weeks.

Nov 2, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule talks with an official against the UCLA Bruins during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The Huskers are in a familiar position two games in a row – a chance to get to bowl eligibility in a matchup against a team from Los Angeles.

The state of Nebraska football was in its worst shape in two years following the loss to UCLA, and a challenging final three games were approaching. It’s been an eventful two weeks for Nebraska and USC since their last games. USC has made a change at quarterback, replacing Miller Moss with Jayden Maiava. Nebraska made an even more significant move, replacing offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield with offensive guru Dana Holgorsen. Both teams come into this game desperate for bowl eligibility, but suddenly, Nebraska has some momentum.

The Huskers enter this game with uncertainty at quarterback due to Dylan Raiola's injury late in the UCLA game on Nov. 2. His total EPA on the season has continued to dip after peaking late in the Purdue game. The Husker’s EPA per pass has been negative on the season, ranking 95th in college football.

With the change at offensive coordinator, I don’t think past results are indicative of future performance. Satterfield’s playbook had some well-designed plays. He’s utilized wide receivers well in the running game and has given the ball to Heinrich Haarberg in unique ways, making him a threat as a secondary quarterback on the field.

But the offense lacked rhythm. Successful drives have stalled in goal-to-go situations. Holgorsen doesn’t have the time to implement all the changes he’d want as a full-time offensive coordinator. Fortunately, I don’t think he needs to make many changes to get more production (and points) out of an offense with talent in several key positions. The USC defense ranks 109th in the nation in early down EPA allowed. I expect Holgorsen to exploit this and finally get the offense into some rhythm.

An Arbitrary Analytics passing graph. / Game on Paper

USC switched from one of the most prolific passers in the Big Ten to a more dual-threat quarterback in Jayden Maiava. The Trojans were 3-0 in games in which Moss threw no interceptions, but they were 1-5 in games in which he threw at least one. Maiava put up some good numbers against Mountain West competition at UNLV in 2023. This is a big change for an offense that is ranked 20th in Game On Paper’s adjusted EPA/play. I expect Tony White’s defense, bolstered by the addition of Phil Snow as a consultant, to make life hard for the young signal caller and force some turnovers.

The Huskers have a chance to get their run game going this week against the 13th-ranked run defense in the Big Ten. The USC defense is 84th in the nation in EPA allowed per rush. I liked what the Huskers did against UCLA, running some quick-hitting plays with Dante Dowdell at fullback. I hope to see Jacory Barney continue to be used in the run game in Holgorsen’s offense.

An Arbitrary Analytics rushing table. / Game on Paper

Efficiency is the name of the USC rushing attack. No team in the Big Ten has fewer rush attempts per game than the Trojans, yet they are ninth in rush yards and trail only Iowa in yards per attempt in the Big Ten. USC is eighth in the nation in terms of EPA/rush. Woody Marks does get stopped behind the line a decent amount but can also get 8+ yards on a significant number of his carries. Quinten Joyner is a home run threat, averaging nearly 8.4 yards per carry while rarely getting stopped for negative yardage. Combined with the rushing threat of Maiava, the Snow-White defense could have its hands full.

This game is the most uncertain I’ve felt about a game all season. Both teams have made significant changes during their bye weeks, so I don’t trust their past performance to offer much insight into how this game could play out.

With that said, I think Nebraska will pull this game out. I think Holgorsen can put together a few drives that remind Husker fans of the Colorado game earlier this season. I think USC will have a good day running the ball, which will be disappointing for the defense. Despite that, they can force Jayden Maiava to make some mistakes. I have Nebraska winning in surprisingly comfortable fashion.

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