Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl

The Pinstripe Bowl against Boston College is a great building block for Nebraska's 2025 season.

Nebraska defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr. takes part in the the Huskers' practice Monday after their flight to New York for the Pinstripe Bowl. / Nebraska Athletics

After a 2,920-day hiatus, Nebraska football returns to postseason play. The only bowl drought longer in program history was between the 1940 Rose Bowl and the 1954 Orange Bowl, Nebraska’s first two bowl games.

The sport has undergone radical changes in the last eight years—from NIL and the transfer portal to conference realignment—one constant has been Cam McCormick's extended college career. The return to postseason play is still important, even if the bowls mean less than ever. The extra practice is a valuable jump-start to the 2025 season. Regardless of the result in Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripe Bowl is a valuable stepping stone to Matt Rhule’s plans at Nebraska.

Grayson James took over as the Eagles starting quarterback in November. In his five appearances, he has followed a similar trajectory to Dylan Raiola early in the season in terms of EPA. They are 2-1 in his starts since he took over the job, with the only loss coming to a 2024 College Football Playoff participant, SMU. James is a fourth-year player with three years of experience at FIU. Boston College is 30th in the country in EPA per pass, ranking last in the ACC in pass attempts. Bill O’Brien’s team doesn’t pass often, but it's effective when they do.

An Arbitrary Analytics passing graph. / Arbitrary Analytic

Raiola’s total EPA was plummeting under Marcus Satterfield once he hit conference play. In three weeks in Dana Holgorsen’s system, his EPA was flat, and he posted his three highest completion percentages in conference games. Raiola is the biggest winner of the bowl game. The Huskers finished the 2024 season as college football's youngest skill position group. The extra work will be invaluable for getting a good start in 2025.

Boston College has all four of its top rushers on its bowl depth chart. The Eagles are 12th in the nation in rushes per game but 47th in rushing yards per game. Their EPA per rush ranks 104th in the nation, while their rushing success rate ranks 107th. The Eagles' run game is prone to allowing disruptive plays, which gives the Huskers' defensive front a great opportunity.

An Arbitrary Analytics rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

Losing Dante Dowdell to the transfer portal means the Huskers have just one rushing touchdown among their available running backs this game. Holgorsen was able to utilize Dowdell in different ways despite the emergence of Emmett Johnson late in the season. The Huskers' run game ranked 26th in EPA per rush, but the Eagles' run defense ranks 20th in EPA per rush allowed. Even without Dowdell, this should be a clash of strong units.

An Arbitrary Analytics rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

While I’d love to see the Huskers win this game, results matter to me less than ever in bowl games with so many players already in the portal or sitting out. What I want to see is progress. The extra practice should help improve the offense, specifically a passing attack I expect to be a strength in 2025. These two teams are evenly matched. I think the Husker's offense plays one of its better games this season and controls the ball. This should be enough for Nebraska to have a close win.

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