Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. Indiana

Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers offense have been an unstoppable force, but Nebraska football's Blackshirts are an immovable object. Which one breaks first on Saturday?

Sep 28, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) points at the line of scrimmage before the snap against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Nebraska is coming out of its bye with its most formidable challenge of the season so far. Indiana seemed like a very winnable game heading into the season, but now the Huskers are comfortable underdogs. While Indiana boasts one of the nation's best offenses, Nebraska fortunately counters with one of the best defenses in the country. However, Indiana also boasts a stout defense, which is better than the Huskers in traditional metrics like yards allowed but nearly even in advanced metrics like EPA/play and opponent-adjusted EPA/play.

The bye week came at a perfect time for Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola, who, after five games of consistent improvement in EPA, finally had his first negative EPA game against Rutgers. I expected a few games like that one for a freshman quarterback, and fortunately, the Huskers could still win despite a bad outing from Raiola. Game on Paper ranks Dylan Raiola at 35th on EPA per dropback.

Quick trivia question: what do you call a quarterback with over 200 EPA in a season? A Heisman Trophy winner. Through six games, Indiana's Kurtis Rourke has 109 EPA. Miami's Cam Ward is the only other player this season who is over 100. The level of competition will increase for Rourke the rest of the season, but he has a chance to hit the 200 EPA mark this year. Three quarterbacks have accomplished the feat – Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Kyler Murray (Oklahoma), and Joe Burrow (LSU) in the seasons they won their Heisman.

Passing chart for Indiana and Nebraska quarterbacks. / Arbitrary Analytics

In past previews, I’ve praised Raiola’s steady incline in total EPA throughout the season. Kurtis Rourke is showing what a near-perfect line looks like. Game on Paper has him at 0.67 EPA/DB – no player with multiple games played in a season has had a higher number than that since play-by-play data was publicly available in 2014. NC State's Grayson McCall holds the completed season record at 0.65 in 2021. Nebraska is the best defense Indiana has played all season, but the Blackshirts will have their hands full.

The Huskers have lacked an explosive run game in 2024 but have made up for it with a consistently successful one. Nebraska is in the bottom third of college football in explosive run percentage but is in the top third for both EPA per rush and running success rate. Because Nebraska needs to limit the opportunities for the high-powered Hoosier offense to score, they need to have a good game on the ground.

Rushing table for Indiana and Nebraska football. / Arbitrary Analytics

Indiana's rushing offense is above average, ranking 50th in total EPA for the season. Their high-flying passing offense has set up many short touchdown runs, with the team running the ball into the endzone 23 times on the season – only Army, Navy, and Boise State have more rushing touchdowns. The Hoosiers average 3.8 rushing touchdowns per game. You’d have to go to the third quarter of the 2023 Michigan game to find the fourth most recent rushing touchdown that the Blackshirts have allowed.

Since beating Oregon in 2016, Nebraska is still searching for its next win against a ranked opponent. Rutgers is the only team in the Big Ten with a longer gap since its last win versus a ranked opponent. The Indiana offense is one of the best in college football this season. They will make the Blackshirts bend, but whether they can break them will be seen on the field. Nebraska will have to play a near-perfect game to win in Bloomington. Unfortunately, the Huskers are mistake-prone in 2024, which will cost them a win at Indiana.

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