Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. Iowa

The Huskers have secured bowl eligibility. Now the pressure is on Iowa this Black Friday.

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers running back Emmett Johnson (21) scores a touchdown against the Southern California Trojans during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

For the first time in eight years and six weeks, Nebraska football is prepping for an opponent with bowl eligibility already secured. It couldn’t come at a better time, as the Huskers are facing an opponent that’s had their number lately. Iowa has won eight of the nine matchups since Nebraska fired Bo Pelini. Nebraska’s offense has gotten a boost in production led by new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. On the other hand, Iowa is on its preseason QB3 but boasts the Big Ten’s best rushing attack.

For Nebraska, notching wins against Colorado, Wisconsin, and Iowa in a single season should be considered a success despite the disappointing results against UCLA or USC. The Huskers have nothing to lose in this game, having already secured bowl eligibility. Iowa comes into this game already likely to finish below their preseason expectation of fifth place. The pressure has crushed teams in this matchup, with the Huskers failing to win number six several times, while Nebraska ended Iowa’s hopes of a Big Ten West title in 2022.

Jackson Stratton comes into this game with fewer passes in his career than Dylan Raiola has attempted in each of his last two games. In his start against Maryland, he was 10/14 for 76 yards. No matter who’s been the quarterback for the Hawkeyes, they haven’t thrown much. Only the three service academies, Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico State have fewer passing yards than Kirk Ferentz's squad.

Even when they have passed, it hasn’t been very effective, ranking 94th in the nation of EPA per drop back. Iowa is one of the least explosive passing teams in the country, with just 6.8% of their passes going for more than 2.4 EPA. This is welcome news for a Nebraska secondary that has allowed an explosive pass rate of over 14% in their last two games.

Passing table for Nebraska vs. Iowa. / Arbitrary Analytics

Replacing the play caller has reversed Dylan Raiola's downward slide. He has had back-to-back games with 70% passing. His EPA has risen again after a tough four-week stretch in the middle of the season. This Iowa defense is stout, however. Their EPA allowed per pass ranks 31st in the nation, trailing only Ohio State, Indiana, and Colorado for Nebraska opponents this season.

However, this game will be decided on the ground. Hawkeye Kaleb Johnson leads the Big Ten in rushing yards and touchdowns. Iowa is the only team in the Big Ten averaging over 200 yards rushing per game. Iowa is 0-3 in games where Kaleb Johnson rushes under 100 yards. Containing him is the top priority for Tony White’s Blackshirts.

Iowa rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska can flip the script on Iowa if it can win on early downs. Iowa’s offense has faced the nation’s second shortest third down distance. Kaleb Johnson has a high stuff rate this season (runs for 0 or fewer yards). Forcing Iowa into some third-and-long situations could quickly throw them out of rhythm and force an inexperienced passer into trying to make big plays.

Nebraska rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

Emmett Johnson exploded last week as the Huskers starting running back, becoming Matt Rhule’s second 100-yard rusher while at Nebraska. On a per carry basis, Nebraska’s Johnson has been just as effective as Iowa’s Johnson both averaging 0.18 EPA per carry (albeit on about 1/3 of the carries). The Huskers have one of the lowest stuffed run rates in the country, while Iowa is one of the worst teams in the nation at stuffing runs. The Huskers should be able to stay ahead of the chains and convert on third-and-shorts this game.

This game will be decided in the trenches. Whoever wins the rushing attack on early downs will likely win this game. The Hawkeyes and Huskers are 1 and 2 in the nation, respectively, for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. Right now, Kaleb Johnson is the best player on either team. But football is a team game, and the Huskers shut down the Big Ten’s second-best back, Kyle Monangai, earlier this season. I predicted a 7-5 record in the preseason, and I’m sticking with that prediction today.

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