Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. Wisconsin

The Huskers look to end one of the program's longest losing streaks to a single opponent.

Nov 2, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola hands the ball off to running back Dante Dowdell against the UCLA Bruins. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Nebraska football coach Matt Rhule told reporters and fans Monday that he doesn’t think the Huskers are cursed. As someone who’s been a Husker for only two years, it might not seem that way to him. But to fans who have been around the program for the last seven (or 10, 16, or even 23 years), it does feel like the Huskers are cursed.

This week represents one of the Huskers' biggest curses in program history. The Wisconsin Badgers hold a 10-game winning streak over Nebraska. That is tied for Nebraska's second-longest losing streak against a single opponent in program history. Only the 16-game streak against Oklahoma (1943-58) is longer.

Both Wisconsin and Nebraska have struggled to pass the ball this year. Wisconsin is ranked 113th in the nation, with an average of -0.12 EPA per drop back, just behind Purdue. Badger quarterback Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in seven straight games and has had nine touchdowns to nine interceptions on the year. He’s managed to pass the 60% mark in completion percentage just twice this season – against Purdue and Rutgers. The Husker secondary needs a bounce-back game, and this could be a great opportunity.

USC stats missing due to ESPN data error for Dylan Raiola / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska’s passing game improved versus USC; its EPA per drop back (-0.06) was the best since the Purdue game (0.26). However, the Wisconsin passing defense is stout, ranking third in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed 164.8. While defending the pass, the Badgers' defense allowed -0.09 EPA per drop back, 35th-best in the country. Wisconsin is second to last in the Big Ten in interceptions. This is an excellent game for NU QB Dylan Raiola to be a game manager and end his streak of interceptions thrown.

Wisconsin has moved the ball well on the ground this season, averaging 169 yards rushing per game, good for sixth in the Big Ten. However, it hasn’t picked up many meaningful yards, ranking 80th in the country in EPA/rush at just 0.01. Tawee Walker ranks sixth in the Big Ten in carries and fourth in touchdowns, operating as a bellcow back for the Badgers. The Wisconsin running game hasn’t been explosive outside of some big plays from Cade Yacamelli in limited opportunities against lower levels of competition.

Arbitrary Analytics

The Huskers' ground game could push them back into the win column this week. The Huskers rank 43rd in the nation at 0.08 EPA per rush, while the Badger defense is 98th in the country, allowing 0.07 EPA per rush. The Nebraska offensive line has done a good job opening holes for rushers, ranking Nebraska in the 97th percentile for line yards, but the Huskers are in only the 21st percentile for explosive run rate.

Arbitrary Analytics

Dante Dowdell’s carry distribution chart is an excellent example of this in the Huskers' ground game. He consistently is getting 2-4 yards on his carries but plummets after five yards. Dana Holgorsen’s comments about getting the wide receivers more involved in blocking should inspire some hope that Nebraska can start turning 4-yard carries into 24-yard carries.

Nebraska punter Brian Buschini could be an X-factor in this game. Wisconsin’s offense ranks 100th in the nation in available yard percentage (how many yards a team gets from how many were possible based on starting field position). The Husker's defense ranks 33rd in yard percentage allowed. If Buschini can force some long fields for Wisconsin, it could result in a big gain in field position for the Nebraska offense’s next drive.

I like how Nebraska matches up with its opponent for the third week in a row. All season, the run game has seemed ready to break a big run, but it hasn’t panned out. With Dana Holgorsen’s commitment to having his wide receivers block, the running backs might finally be able to break off a big run this season. I expect the defense will force at least two turnovers in this game, and the Huskers will get a close win.                                              

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