Analytics Review: Nebraska Football at Purdue

It was a tale of two halves for the Huskers who flipped their winning formula from earlier in the season to pick up a road win.

Sep 28, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. (17) is tackled by Purdue Boilermakers linebacker Yanni Karlaftis (14) and defensive lineman Joe Anderson (95) at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

It was the worst of times; it was the best of times. At least that’s how the Huskers' first and second halves went against Purdue.

The Huskers' special teams were anything but in the first half. In my Illinois review, I said anything from the 25-40 yard line should be four-down territory. This week I’m calling for the Huskers to leave Dylan Raiola on the field from anywhere between the 10-40 yard line. The next three Nebraska opponents will likely all be undefeated when Nebraska plays them. Nebraska must be aggressive and maximize its scoring chances in those games.

All season, I’ve been worried about Raiola's “firsts”—his first game, his first P4 opponent, and his first road game. Halftime of this game brought another first: his first game without a lead at the half.

The Boilermakers managed a good opening drive after the break, rolling into field goal range, with their win probability peaking at 45.6% two plays before their field goal.

Game on Paper /

Nebraska entered the contest as the 13th-best team in first-half scoring and 17th-worst in second-half scoring. However, the freshman responded well, leading a scoring drive thanks to some help from Purdue, who committed three penalties on the drive.

The eventual touchdown pass from Raiola to Jahmal Banks was the game's most important play, with a win probability of 11.6%. Nebraska would remain above 75% WP for the remainder of the game.

I also need to give Nebraska credit for improving the two areas I called out after last week's loss.

Nebraska managed five explosive plays on offense to just two against Illinois. It's even more impressive, considering Nebraska ran 11 fewer plays from scrimmage against the Boilermakers than the Illini.

Against both Illinois and Purdue, Nebraska started the drive on average on its own 30. The difference was Illinois started its average drive on its own 22 versus Illinois starting on its 42.

Game on Paper /

The Huskers were once Kicker U. From 2005-20, they were second in the nation in field goal percentage at 80.8%. Nebraska has been the second worst in the nation since then, at just 60%. Mercifully, the Huskers have also attempted the 12th fewest field goals since 2021, but are middle of the pack in attempts this season.  

Nebraska will struggle to win games if changes aren’t made to its fourth down strategy. The special teams EPA for Nebraska against Purdue was -12.05. At this point, I trust the play-making of Raiola to pick up eight or fewer yards in two downs rather than picking up some on third and sending the kicker out on fourth.

Tony White’s defense must also be ready to step up if the offense commits to a higher risk, higher reward philosophy.

For the fourth time this season, Nebraska walks away with a win by a large margin, but many things it can improve on. Over the last five games, Nebraska has outscored opponents by 93 total points – the third-highest five-game scoring margin by Nebraska since Bo Pelini was fired.

Many people, including myself, have focused on Nebraska’s record in one-score games. The Purdue game was an important win, though. While it's not going in the one-score game category, it was a weird game like many of those one-score games. Nebraska found a way to win in a “weird” game and needs to remember that when a game against a better opponent ends up in that category.

MORE: Big Ten Football Week 5 Capsules

MORE: Penalties, Punts and Pitiful Placekicking Proceed the Huskers Pounding Purdue with Proficient Production

MORE: Tad Stryker: Ground Game Grit

MORE: I-80 Club After Dark: Nebraska is 4-1 After a 28-10 Win Over Purdue

MORE: The Turning Point: Nebraska at Purdue

---

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.