Analytics Review: Nebraska Football at USC

In a game neither team seemingly wanted to win, the Huskers found a way to lose.

Eric Hess | Nov 17, 2024

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Duce Robinson catches a pass against Nebraska Cornhusker cornerback Tommi Hill during the first half. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

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Going into the game, I thought USC coach Lincoln Riley’s decision to replace Miller Moss with Jayden Maiava was a desperate move. I felt incredibly comfortable in my prediction after the Huskers went up 7-0 on a Ceyair Wright pick-six.

But Maiava responded with a touchdown drive after a pass that could have been intercepted. And another pass that should have been intercepted resulted in a touchdown. Finally, in the fourth quarter, he scored a touchdown on a drive kept alive on another play that could have been intercepted. The Huskers had plenty of opportunities to punish the young quarterback and make Riley’s decision look foolish.

Unfortunately, Nebraska came up just one drive short again, adding to an already embarrassing one-score loss streak.

Most one score losses in:
1 season: Nebraska, 2021, 8
2 seasons: Nebraska, 2021-22, 13
3 seasons: Nebraska, 2021-23, 18
4 seasons: Nebraska, 2021-24, 22
5 seasons: Nebraska, 2020-24, 25
6 seasons: Nebraska, 2018-23, 30
7 seasons: Nebraska, 2018-24, 34
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) November 17, 2024

Note: like the Rutgers game, ESPN did not have its usual play-by-play data, which feeds the data source I use for my post-game reviews. Because of this, I unfortunately won’t have my usual post-game stats/analysis for this game.

The defense takes most of the responsibility for this loss. USC gained 441 yards of total offense against the Blackshirts. Only Colorado in 2023 and Indiana in 2024 managed more yards of total offense against the Huskers under Tony White. USC made the most of their efficient rushing attack, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Only Indiana managed a higher YPC against the Huskers (6.7).

USC running back Woody Marks had the best day against Tony White’s Blackshirts of any opposing running back. He rushed for 146 yards on 19 carries. Only Justice Ellison for Indiana (9 for 105) and Leshon Williams (16 for 111) had broken the 100-yard mark against the Huskers in the Rhule era. If the defense can't turn things around, Kaleb Johnson and the Hawkeyes could have a great day on the ground.

I thought Dana Holgorsen made an impact in his first game as the Huskers' offensive coordinator. Dylan Raiola completed 70% of his passes for the first time in conference play. The Huskers also rushed for 4.8 yards per carry. The Purdue game was the only conference game where the Huskers managed to rush for more than 4 YPC (5.0). The Huskers' 4.9 yards per play was also the best in a game since Purdue. The Iowa and Wisconsin defenses will be a bigger challenge for the Huskers, but the performance is a welcome step in the right direction.

This was Nebraska's most difficult loss of the season in many ways. USC tried to give this game away just as much as the Huskers typically do, but Nebraska could not capitalize on the sloppy play. This now makes nine straight losses for the Huskers after reaching win number five—tied for the eighth-longest such losing streak in NCAA history. The Huskers are still far from the NCAA record held by Vanderbilt, who lost 17 straight games with five wins between 1984 and 2008. The Huskers manage to keep setting records that they would rather not have.