Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Colorado

The Huskers' win against Colorado will go well beyond the stat sheet for the Matt Rhule era.

Quarterback Dylan Raiola shouts toward the Memorial Stadium crowd before kickoff against Colorado. / Amarillo Mullen

Nebraska football has its fair share of moral victories over the last seven years and a record number of one-score losses.

Between 2016 and 2023, no program had fewer wins vs its post-game win probability than the Huskers (11.9 wins below expectation; next closest was Navy at 8.2 wins below expectation). However, a shift was felt on a beautiful Saturday night in Lincoln.

A loss to the Buffaloes wouldn’t have derailed the goals of the Huskers' 2024 season. Matt Rhule would still have a clear path to his typical year two performance. In hindsight, the 2018 Colorado game feels like it set the tone for the entire Scott Frost era. In the record books, this game will go down as a win against a team struggling to make a bowl game. The moral victory, though, feels like this game will set the tone of the Matt Rhule era.

Due to some play-by-play inconsistencies with Game On Paper’s data source, ESPN, I won’t use their graphics for this post-game review. The team at Game On Paper does a great job at correcting mistakes where they can, but it remains a manual process to correct any data errors from ESPN.

It was a tale of two halves for the Husker offense, which managed 213 yards in the first half before getting just 121 in the second half. The offense was also 3-for-6 on third down in the first half, which led to two touchdowns. In the second half, Nebraska went 0-for-6 on third down, which led to a lot of work for Brian Buschini (and a nice effort on a punt by Dylan Raiola showing off a third facet of his game). I felt like the playcalling was too conservative in the second half. Even with a young quarterback, I would’ve liked to see him push downfield more to ice the game earlier.

The Huskers' defense was a force to be reckoned with throughout the game, holding Colorado to -2 yards in the first quarter and preventing the Buffaloes from getting a first down until early in the second quarter. After a six-sack performance against the Buffaloes, the Blackshirts have their third most sacks through two games since 2004 (16 in 2005 and 10 in 2018). Nash Hutmacher, Jimari Butler, and Ty Robinson account for six of the 16 combined sacks and QB hurries the Blackshirts managed on Saturday. This defensive performance is something for the Husker fans to be proud of.

This week, I’m excited to debut a new stat I’ve worked on over the offseason – Game Score. It’s an “arbitrary” metric, but I think it’s a fun way to evaluate offensive performance in both box score stats and player EPA.

Game Score uses game stats through 2019 to find outstanding performance in passing, rushing, or receiving. In terms of EPA, the performance must be strong regarding statistics, but it also needs to help the team win. The percentile is based on the highest game scores in college football in 2024. Boise State’s Ashton Jeantry’s six TD performance is the top game of 2024, with a game score of 16.51. I hope this new stat adds a new layer of intrigue to my analysis and a fun way to compare performances across games.

An "arbitrary" metric: Nebraska vs. Colorado Game Score. /

Despite the Husker's tough defense, Travis Hunter still had the game’s highest Game Score, followed by the two Huskers that scored all of the offensive points – Dante Dowdell and Rahmir Johnson. Rahmir was Nebraska's leading receiver and second-leading rusher against the Buffaloes.

The voters saw the Huskers win against Colorado and voted Nebraska 23rd in the AP poll. This is Nebraska’s first time being ranked in the AP Top 25 after multiple games since 2016. It's an essential step in the right direction, but it's also just that—a step. Coming into the game, there was much talk about the game's “culture war” and the coaches' team-building philosophies. Rhule is building a culture of winning, and Saturday night made the players and fans believe in that a little more in a victory that goes well beyond the stat sheet.

MORE: Nebraska Football Earns Top 25 Nod in Coaches, AP Polls Following Colorado Win

MORE: Big Ten Football Week 2 Capsules

MORE: Stukenholtz: Nebraska Football's Road Back to National Relevance

MORE: WATCH: Nebraska Football Quarterback Dylan Raiola Meets with the Media Following Colorado Win

MORE: WATCH: Nebraska Football Coach Matt Rhule Meets with the Media Following Colorado Win

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