Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Illinois

The Huskers add another heartbreaking loss to a decade of games coming up just short.

Sep 20, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Torrie Cox Jr. (5) intercepts a pass to Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Isaiah Neyor (18) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The Huskers had a golden opportunity to make a splash on the national stage. They could have shown that they were a different kind of Nebraska football team than people were used to seeing in the last decade. They failed to deliver.

As I mentioned in my preview, this felt like a game it had potential for another classic Nebraska cursed game. Many old narratives came back – one score loss, overtime with no points, loss to a ranked team, and bad, unnecessary penalties. Illinois looked better coached and better disciplined than the Huskers. Heading into the game, Nebraska looked to be ahead of the Matt Rhule rebuild schedule. While 3-1 feels disappointing, it’s the same place he was with Temple and Baylor in year 2. Friday night showed that the foundation he’s building is solid, but there’s still a long way to go to being a great team.

Painful win probability graphs have become an icon of Nebraska football over the last six years. After a great five-minute drive following Ceyair Wright’s forced fumble, Nebraska’s win probability peaked at 85.8% per Game on Paper. A throw that was just too long for Luke Lindenmeyer and a missed field goal would shave 37.1% off Nebraska’s chances to win.

Game on Paper /

That was a well-executed drive that I think came down to questionable coaching decisions. Jahmal Banks, Isaiah Neyor, and Thomas Fidone II were all off the field for that third down call. Dylan Raiola has great timing with all three of those pass catchers. The play design was great, and it was executed fairly well. Nebraska replaced its reliable targets with a group that has three catches all season. That play call makes the coaches look brilliant if it works out. Nothing is smarter than letting Dylan Raiola make throws to the guys he trusts.

Illinois and Nebraska went into that game as two evenly matched teams and, on paper, were pretty even. Two statistics jump out to me, and I think they decided that game. Illinois managed five more explosive plays (On passes EPA > 2.4, On rushes EPA > 1.8) than Nebraska. Removing Illinois’ seven explosive plays, Illinois would have fared like a bottom-five offense in college football at -0.23 EPA/play. In my UTEP review, I worried about how well the Huskers could defend against big plays. Illinois was a more complete team that took advantage of that to get a win.

Game on Paper /

The other big stat was the disparity in average starting field position. Illinois started drives on average 12 yards ahead of the Huskers. Illinois, on average, would need just about 25 yards per drive to be in field goal range. However, Illinois doubled what it needed, and its average drive would end with a goal-to-go situation. They also managed to get 88% of the available yards all night. If the Husker's defense isn’t as stout as in 2023, special teams will have to force opponents to have longer fields.

In some ways, this game justified some of the panic people had through the first three games. Many of the worst parts of those games converged against Illinois, resulting in a loss. However, some improvements can be made midseason to keep the goal of a bowl game in sight.

The special teams problems are fixable or avoidable. Nebraska can improve its kick coverage units to force more fair catches from opponents. Nebraska can eliminate the risk of missed field goals by treating anything between the opponent's 25 to 40-yard line as four-down territory. It needs to play more disciplined football and avoid dumb penalties.

The Huskers are on pace with a Matt Rhule rebuild and have plenty of opportunities to showcase a glimpse of how a year three Rhule team might look.

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