Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Indiana

Indiana's dominant win shows how far away the Huskers still are from the top 12 teams in college football.

Oct 19, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Justice Ellison (6) stiff arms Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr. (7) during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Well, that game couldn’t have gone much worse than it did. The Indiana Hoosiers played nearly perfect football, while the Huskers were anything but.

Indiana came into the game with one of the best offenses in the country, even after accounting for how weak their schedule had been. The Blackshirts should have been a much more formidable challenge for Kurtis Rourke and this high-powered offense. But even with Rourke missing half the game, the Blackshirts allowed their most yards since the Purdue game in 2022. The only solace from this loss is that Indiana is a legitimate playoff contender. Nebraska is further away from the playoffs than I imagined.

Indiana may be a better team than the Huskers, but the Huskers did plenty to make them look even better. Despite recovering two Husker fumbles in the red zone, Indiana still managed an average starting field position at its own 45-yard line. Allowing such short fields will put any defense at a massive disadvantage, but there's no recovery against an offense as efficient as Indiana.

An Arbitrary Analytics table. / Game on Paper

In both losses this season, Nebraska has given away unearned yardage to its opponents, with both teams starting less than 60 yards away from the endzone. Some back-of-the-envelope math by Parker Fleming would indicate that Indiana’s dominance in the field position battle was worth about 15 additional points on the scoreboard.

A dumb but useful mental model you can apply to games today: starting a drive at your own 25 is worth 2.5 points. Add or subtract a half point for every five yards away from that.

— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 19, 2024

The Huskers were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this one. The Blackshirts defense managed to stuff a Hoosiers run just twice on 31 attempts. Indiana was “stopped” (carry for less than two yards) on just eight of its thirty-two attempts. In every other game this season, Nebraska managed to stop at least 1/3 of its opponent's runs.

An Arbitrary Analytics table. / Game on Paper

On the other side of the ball, nearly 2/3 of Husker’s runs were stopped by Indiana. Nebraska’s success in running the ball will likely be limited by an offensive line that misses key players. In every other contest this season, Nebraska managed for at least half of its runs to go for 2+ yards.

Heinrich Haarberg led the Huskers in rushing in Bloomington, and he needs to continue to have a more regular role in the offense. The nation’s leader in EPA/play is also the team that attempted the fewest passes in 2024—Army. The Husker’s coaching staff should be able to put together plays that can be successful even if the defense knows a run is coming with Haarberg on the field.

Losing to Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers is nothing to be ashamed of. The way the Huskers lost is a reason to be embarrassed. Nebraska football’s inability to get points in the red zone, combined with the unearned yards allowed, turned a modest loss into a blowout.

Matt Rhule and the staff have a quick turnaround to fix some of those issues because Ohio State’s offense is just as potent as the Hoosiers.

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