Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Northern Iowa

The Huskers complete the nonconference schedule unscathed, but will they be able to keep up the momentum heading into the Big Ten Conference slate?

Nebraska running back Emmett Johnson rushes for seven yards against Northern Iowa. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

For the first time since 2016, Nebraska football has made it through the nonconference slate unbeaten.

The Huskers looked good in all three games and looked really good at times. There’s also a lot they could improve on after those three games. UTEP beat the Blackshirts for a long TD, the offense went dormant in the second half against Colorado, and Northern Iowa rushed for 139 yards and controlled the time of possession. The Huskers have the highest scoring margin through three games since 2014. Nebraska is a good team. As conference play starts, it will quickly have the opportunity to prove it can be a great team.

The Huskers' offense was elite despite Dylan Raiola throwing his first career interception in the game. On many metrics, Game on Paper ranked the Huskers' output in at least the 90th percentile. On offense, the Huskers averaged a first down per dropback, which makes for a potent passing attack. However, the Huskers struggled on defense, ranking in the 0th percentile for run stuff rate against the Panthers.

An Arbitrary Analytics table. /

Nebraska’s win probability remained above 90% for the entire game. In every game this season, the Huskers have seemingly come out of the break without as much energy as the first half. In one way this is a major positive, as Nebraska hasn’t needed to perform well to cruise to comfortable victories. However, I would have liked to see the Huskers keep their foot on the gas in at least one game to prove that they can bury an opponent when needed.

Nebraska-UNI win percentage chart. /

Only three teams in the country have been more dominant by first-half scoring margin than the Huskers this season – Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas. With a first-half point differential of +69, the Huskers have had their best first-half scoring margin since at least 2002. However, the Huskers are only ranked 62nd in the country in second-half scoring margin. The game script has been mostly responsible for the gap between halves, but I will be interested in seeing how the Huskers play in a game where they don’t go into the half with a comfortable margin.

The Huskers' most crucial task against Northern Iowa was to build a big enough lead to give the starters some rest in a short week. The Huskers accomplished that mission on their way to a perfect non-conference record. While Northern Iowa may have exposed some weaknesses that more talented Big Ten teams could exploit, it also let the Huskers coaches know what it needs to focus on in the more physical Big Ten.

Matt Rhule’s rebuild appears slightly ahead of schedule, with his team completing an unbeaten non-conference schedule for the second time in his career. Now, the real challenge of conference play begins.

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MORE: Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Reflections on Week 3

MORE: Nebraska Freshman Carter Nelson Scores First Touchdown in Huskers Rout of Northern Iowa

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