Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Ohio State

The Huskers improved in two areas against the Buckeyes. Can the offense make enough changes to propel this team to the postseason?

Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr. (7) intercepts a pass intended for Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. Ohio State won 21-17. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This game was a significant mental test for Matt Rhule’s Huskers and the culture he’s building. After a disaster in Bloomington, I hoped the Huskers would beat national expectations by covering the spread. They accomplished much more than that and had an opportunity to win the game. While another one-score loss stings, the effort bodes well for Nebraska's chances in its remaining games. Nebraska still needs to clean up its mistakes because good teams on Nebraska’s schedule can exploit those for wins.

The Blackshirts delivered a resurgent performance in this game. Last week, the Hoosiers scored on four of the first five drives and never looked back. One of my goals for Nebraska in this game was a first-half punt by Ohio State. The Huskers got that on their second time on the field and forced stops on two more of the Buckeye's first five drives. The Buckeyes had at least five explosive plays in every other game this season. The Blackshirts limited them to just three, but unfortunately, all three were on scoring drives.

Biggest Plays of the Game by EPA. / Game On Paper

A dismal rushing defensive performance in Indiana was the Husker's worst since Scott Frost was coach. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined for just 54 yards rushing. This was only the second game where either player had fewer than 54 yards rushing this season (Judkins was limited to just 23 against Oregon). Nebraska stuffed (< 0 yards) or stopped (< 2 yards) 13 Ohio State plays. Ohio State came into the game averaging 0.24 EPA/rush, 6th in the nation. They were limited to -0.39 EPA/rush against Nebraska.

The offense remained a liability this week. Nebraska only managed 4.9 yards per play (including penalties) in this game. While some people are uninterested in where this ranks nationally, it ranks in the bottom quartile of all games. Given the injuries to the offensive line, it's hard to expect much improvement in the running numbers. The coaches can improve the passing scheme, though.

Huskers were competitive despite offenses struggles. / Game On Paper

Huskers were competitive despite offenses struggles. / Game On Paper

Nebraska had five of its 19 completions (on non-penalized plays) gain fewer than two yards. Only 42 teams have had a higher rate of short completions in a game this season. During the season, 15.9% of Nebraska’s completions have been for two or fewer yards. This is the 15th-highest rate in the country. The screen passes are not working, and it is a dereliction of duty by Marcus Satterfield to keep calling them.

The defense wasn't the only unit that showed improvement this week. Nebraska managed a positive EPA on its special team’s plays for the first time this season. John Hohl's 47-yard field goal in the third quarter was a crucial play, bringing the game back within one possession. With an EPA of 2.90, it ranked as the seventh biggest play of the game. The special teams were still far from perfect, with the opening kickoff mistake charting at -2.49 and the punt three plays later coming in at -0.65. While special teams are still far from an asset for the Huskers, it wasn’t a liability against Ohio State, which allowed Nebraska to stay in the game.

Special teams were a positive for the Huskers against Ohio State. / Game On Paper

Against Indiana, the Huskers were abysmal in all three parts of the game. Two units improved enough for the Huskers to go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes in Columbus. This caliber of play will give the Huskers a chance to win each of their last four games. If the offense can also take a step forward, the Huskers could finish the season 9-3. However, I’m not confident that those improvements will be made this season, and bigger ones might be required this offseason.

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