Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. UTEP

For a few minutes, it looked as though the ghosts of the past might catch up to the Huskers, but the promise of a new future won out. An analytics review of the Nebraska football game against UTEP.

Dylan Raiola (15) calls a play before snapping the ball. / Amarillo Mullen

In my pregame article, I wrote that this was a winnable game and a good chance for Dylan Raiola to get up to speed with college players. While he came in with high expectations, his first real action might expose some weaknesses in his game.

Instead, he played about as well as I could’ve hoped for. His first drive down the field was methodical, getting a touchdown after a (from my view questionable) pass interference call threatened to derail it. The next three drives reminded me of some of the pains of the past, with a turnover on downs, a punt, and a fumble keeping the score tied a third of the way through the game. However, the defensive line made a big play to get a safety, followed by an incredible catch and run from Isaiah Neyor, and the game was never in question again.

Note about my review articles – the majority of tables and stats I’ll reference in my review articles will come from the website Game On Paper. This site is incredible for real-time (and post-game) advanced stat analysis. The site's creators are some of the most influential people in the open-source sports analytics community. Arbitrary Analytics wouldn’t exist without their work in open-source college football data.

The Huskers haven’t had a larger margin of victory in a season opener since Bo Pelini’s final season as the head coach (although the 2016 opener was also a 33-point victory). The win probability chart reflects that dominance. Nebraska’s win probability never dipped below 93% for the entire game. This comfortable margin allowed the Huskers to get a lot of players opportunities to see game action. These types of games are pivotal in sustaining the success of a program. The experience of live game reps will help players develop when their time comes to be a starter at Nebraska.

Nebraska vs. UTEP Win Probability. / Game On Paper

Despite the ease of the victory, one thing still concerned me – big negative plays. The three biggest plays regarding win probability change all went against Nebraska. In the Scott Frost era, these plays usually signaled the wheels falling off for the team and the tide turning in the opponent's favor. Against UTEP, Nebraska responded well.

Nebraska's biggest positive play for added win probability was on 2nd and 30, when Jahmal Banks picked up 19 yards on a reception, which ultimately turned into a touchdown on the drive. The Blackshirts also followed up the Dante Dowdell fumble with a safety. Since 2018, 731 drives have had a play of at least 30 yards to go. Only 45 times has the team put a touchdown on the board during that drive.

Nebraska vs. UTEP Plays List. / Game On Paper

However, I think the most important stat from the season opener is also one of the most simple—UTEP’s snap count. The Miners only ran 47 plays from scrimmage on Saturday, tied for the second-fewest plays the Blackshirts have had on the field since 2014. Fatigue has been a curse for the Huskers' defense in recent years.

Raiola and the offense look ready to create sustainable, methodical drives that can keep the defense rested and prepared to play at a high level late in the game and late in the season. This might be the most crucial element of Nebraska breaking its one-score-loss curse.

The season got off to a great start before a big week two matchup with Colorado. The Huskers' ability to control the ball will be crucial in that contest. Raiola looked poised and confident and made several big plays to keep drives alive. Both new WR additions found the endzone in their Huskers' debut and will hopefully continue to build chemistry with Dylan Raiola to form a lethal passing attack. Saturday felt like the start of something special in Lincoln.

MORE: Husker Doc Talk: Week 1 Report Card and a Look Forward to Colorado

MORE: Report: Former Nebraska QB, Coach Scott Frost to Join NFL Staff

MORE: Nebraska Football Listed as Touchdown Favorite Over Colorado in Early Betting Lines

MORE: Balloons Returning to Memorial Stadium for Nebraska Football Games?

MORE: Nebraska Football Receives Compliments on Ball Control, Defense from UTEP Coach

---

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, following HuskerMax on X, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.