College Football Playoff Reflections after Week 4 + Remaining Undefeated Teams

Here are the games that should matter most to Nebraska this week

Sep 21, 2024; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Purdue Boilermakers running back Devin Mockobee (45) runs the ball for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

“Hope is the thing with feathers.” Don’t worry, it didn’t fly away with the loss to the Illini on Friday night. The potential pathway to the playoffs definitely got much steeper, but it still exists. Nebraska is now a part of what I will call “Tier 3.” Tier 3 means that they will almost certainly win an at-large bid if they win the rest of their regular season games, but they will be—at best—a team on the bubble if they lose 1 more of their remaining 8 games. With #3 ranked Ohio State looming in the mid-October distance, that’s daunting,… but hope still lives!

Here's a recap of the Week 4 games that were listed last week as being the most likely to affect Nebraska’s playoff chances….

#24 Illinois (4-0)             31
#22 Nebraska (3-1)        24 (OT)
This is the one that mattered most, so this loss hurt the most. Illinois is a pretty good team, and about as fundamentally sound on defense (especially tackling) as any team that I’ve yet watched this year. Their top wide receivers, Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, will be catching passes in the NFL, and they played like it. Luke Altmyer was excellent at finding open receivers and taking care of the ball. The offensive coordinator’s play calls in the red zone were spectacular. It’s hard to prepare for plays that they hadn’t shown on film, and to my knowledge, the Tackle-Eligible touchdown was a new wrinkle on a formation that they had shown many times before. Likewise, I don’t remember ever seeing Pat Bryant (WR) lining up in the Fullback position, which is what they did for their touchdown in overtime. It was very well executed.

It’s okay for Nebraska fans to give credit to Illinois for playing an excellent game as well as to their coaches for preparing for and calling an excellent game. That doesn’t mean that Nebraska didn’t blow chances to win the game. Illinois looks like an 8- to 10-win team, depending on how much they can avoid injuries and stay focused, but they are just as capable of going out this week and playing uninspired football in Happy Valley and getting clobbered by Penn State. Penn State is currently a 17.5 point favorite, which seems excessive.

Now for some good news … several of Nebraska’s future opponents are playing at a level where the Huskers should have at least 3-4 more games versus ranked opponents to refurbish their image. While this signifies a tougher schedule, it’s always going to be better to play ranked opponents rather than unranked as far as enhancing the resume for a playoff appearance.

Purdue (1-2)            21
Oregon St (3-1)       38
Purdue is definitely NOT one of those teams playing at a high level. Purdue has some good players in key positions, but they have not played well together. However, the Boilermakers also have a history of upsetting teams that come to visit, so Nebraska is in no position to view this game as a gimme.

Rutgers (3-0)             26
Virginia Tech (3-1)    23
Rutgers is not only still unranked despite being undefeated and defeating Virginia Tech on the road, they are not even yet listed as receiving any votes from the sportswriters in the AP poll. That seems absurd.

Charlotte (1-3)        14
Indiana (4-0)           52
Indiana took care of business, and they are now receiving votes to be the equivalent of a #27 ranking, hovering just outside of the top 25.

Marshall (1-2)             14
#3 Ohio State (3-0)    49
Ohio State rolled yet another overmatched opponent.

UCLA (1-2)         17
#16 LSU (2-2)    34
The Bruins actually beat the 21.5-point spread that was predicted for the game.

Nebraska’s past opponents:

UTEP (0-4)                        13
Colorado State (2-2)      27
UTEP kept it reasonably close, which represents progress for the Miners.

Baylor (2-2)        31
Colorado (3-1)   38 (OT)
Colorado needed divine intervention to put the game into overtime, but they’re now halfway to being bowl eligible.

Northern Iowa (2-2)       7
Hawai’i (2-2)                  36
Northern Iowa did not, in fact, pose a difficult matchup problem for Hawai’i, who pummeled them.

Big Ten teams to watch
Michigan State (3-1)  19
Boston College (3-1) 23
The Spartans suffered their first defeat.

Big 12 teams to watch
#12 Utah (4-0)                             22
#14 Oklahoma State (3-1)        19
Utah beat the Cowboys in Stillwater, and they did so without their starting quarterback, Cam Rising. The Utah defense was impressive.

#13 Kansas State (3-1)    9
BYU (4-0)                         38
Kansas State looked like the better team on paper … except for the bushel of turnovers. BYU scored in almost every way imaginable, including a muffed punt return that was almost a safety before going the distance the other way. The Wildcats dropped to #23 in this week’s AP poll, and BYU jumped over them to #22.

Arizona State (3-1)   22
Texas Tech (3-1)          30
The Sun Devils are no longer among the ranks of the undefeated.

ACC teams to watch
James Madison (2-0)
North Carolina (3-0)
James Madison lost their head coach and 9 transfers to Indiana, but they looked like a juggernaut plowing over the Tar Heels, but they are still only receiving a handful of AP votes.

Georgia Tech (4-1)    19
#19 Louisville (3-0)   31
Louisville is still unbeaten and moved up to #15 in this week’s AP rankings. They travel to Notre Dame this Saturday.

#8 Miami (4-0) 50
South Florida (2-2) 15
Miami still looks unstoppable, but they have not played a quality opponent yet. They host Virginia Tech for a Friday night game.

Cal (3-1) 9
Florida State (1-3) 14
Cal gets its first loss, and the Seminoles get their first win.

G5 teams to watch
San Jose State (3-1) 52
Washington State (4-0)    54
Washington State is knocking on the door of the AP top 25, currently sitting at #26. San Jose State is undefeated no more.

Memphis (3-1)   44
Navy (3-0)           56
Memphis was looking like a solid contender for the playoffs a week ago, but suddenly they are chasing an undefeated Navy in the AAC.

Buffalo (3-1) 23
#23 Northern Illinois (3-1) 20
In the Huskies’ first game since taking down Notre Dame, the Bulls gave them their first loss.

East Carolina (2-2)   24
Liberty (4-0)              35
Liberty struggled in their toughest game so far, having to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win.

Toledo (3-1)                         21
Western Kentucky (3-1)    26
The MAC teams apparently took turns knocking off the undefeated, as the Hilltoppers knocked the Rockets from the ranks of the undefeated.

Remaining Undefeated FBS Teams

There are 25 teams remaining who have yet to be defeated, including 20 teams from the Power 4 conferences and 5 from the Group of 5 (or is it Group of 6 now?). The MAC is the first conference to no longer have any undefeated teams. The list will grow thinner as this week there are some matchups between undefeated teams: #2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama and #19 Illinois @ #9 Penn State.

ACC
Duke Blue Devils (4-0)
Louisville Cardinals (3-0)
Miami Hurricanes (4-0)
Pitt Panthers (4-0)

Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0)
Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)
Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)
Oregon Ducks (3-0)
Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0)

Big 12
BYU Cougars (4-0)
Iowa State Cyclones (3-0)
UCF Golden Knights (3-0)
Utah Utes (4-0)

SEC
Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
Missouri Tigers (4-0)
Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
Texas Longhorns (4-0)

AAC
Army Black Knights (3-0)
Navy Midshipmen (3-0)

Conference USA
Liberty Flames (4-0)

Mountain West

UNLV Rebels (3-0)

Pac 12

Washington State Cougars (4-0)

Sun Belt

James Madison Dukes (3-0)

With the new 12-team playoff system in place, more teams will have more chances to make the playoffs, and their opportunities will last much longer into the season. This series of articles is intended to continue all season with three subjects per week: reflections on the past week’s most important games; projecting who is most likely to be included in the playoffs, while also listing out all of the teams still in contention for the at-large spots; and a summary of the games to anticipate for the coming week. All are written from the perspective of a Nebraska fan who wants a summary of what needs to happen for the Huskers to make the playoffs.

MORE: The Common Fan: Did the Loss to Illinois Change Expectations for Nebraska’s Season?

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MORE: Nebraska vs. Purdue: A Must-Win Matchup for Both Teams

MORE: Nebraska-Purdue Preview with Russ Johnson, Host of the Boiler Express Podcast

MORE: Nebraska Volleyball Breaks ESPN Television Records in Sweep Over Louisville

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