College Football Playoff Reflections after Week 5 + Remaining Undefeated Teams

Which games mattered most, and who’s still undefeated?

Sep 28, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) points at the line of scrimmage before the snap against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

There was a lot of good news on the potential playoff chase for Nebraska in Week 4. The two halves of the Purdue game showed us Nebraska’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde personalities, but they won the game, which was the most important outcome for the week. The first half wouldn’t have looked so bad if a touchdown hadn’t been called back and/or some field goal tries had gone through the uprights, but ne’er shall it be. The season is literally a work in progress, so here’s to making some progress.

In other games Week 5 saw seven undefeated teams go down in flames with some others barely escaping. Let’s start with the fun surprises: the games that I failed to anticipate in last week’s article as being relevant to Nebraska’s playoff hopes….

20 - Kentucky (3-2)
17 - #6 Ole Miss (4-1)
This game was the shocker of the weekend, and Kentucky went a long way in blowing up the chances of Ole Miss making the playoffs, even though they looked like a solid lock a week ago. The undefeated Rebels were a 15.5-point favorite at home. This loss is especially significant for teams like Nebraska in search of an at-large playoff berth because Ole Miss has a relatively light conference schedule within the SEC. A week ago it seemed that Georgia was the only team on their schedule likely to beat Ole Miss, but now the next few weeks look like a gauntlet after the loss to the Wildcats exposed a lot of weaknesses. A couple more losses, and Ole Miss will be out of the playoff picture for certain, and they’ll likely be on the bubble with just one more. Thank you, Kentucky!

23 - Arizona (3-1)
10 - #10 Utah (4-1
Utah was an undefeated 8-point favorite playing at home after beating Oklahoma State on the road in Week 4. Since Arizona had been mauled by Kansas State in its previous game back in Week 3, this seemed like a sure thing for the Utes. Nope. The Big 12 is wide, wide open, again, with only 2 undefeated teams remaining, and those teams—BYU and Iowa State—have yet to play Utah or Oklahoma State. Speaking of undefeated Big 12 teams going down in flames….

48 - Colorado (4-1)

21 - Central Florida (3-1)

This game was listed in last week’s preview of games to follow, but only by default because all of Nebraska’s opponents’ games were listed. I thought that Colorado didn’t have a chance in this game because UCF would run the ball down their throats. I thought that UCF would be motivated to run up the score so as to impress AP voters in hopes of being ranked. I was very wrong. Colorado is suddenly 4-1, only a couple games away from being bowl eligible with Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Kansas left on their schedule, all of whom have been struggling as of late. Don’t look now, but Colorado is tied for first in the Big 12.

Besides the upsets, there were a bunch of games that were much closer than almost anyone had expected, though the favorite still won. The nearest thing to a monster upset will still be debated for a long time to come….

#7 Miami survived Virginia Tech with some controversy as the referees initially ruled the Hokies’ hail-Mary pass as a touchdown before overturning it a few minutes later with no explanation. Undefeated Duke squeaked by North Carolina at home to remain unbeaten. #12 Michigan also had a near-miss collapse to Minnesota stopped by a questionable call. After blowing a big lead, Minnesota seemed to have successfully recovered an onside-kick with time left to win or tie,… but a ref flagged the Gophers for a questionable Offsides penalty, which necessitated a re-kick. The Wolverines covered the 2nd attempt.

These were the games that had been highlighted as important for Nebraska

34 - #2 Georgia (3-1)

41 - #4 Alabama (4-0)

What an amazing game. There were moments that felt surreal, like watching someone play a videogame version of the game, but then there were moments that looked like 2 NFL teams duking it out. Regardless, the Bulldogs are no longer undefeated. As expected, Alabama moved up to #1, and the AP voters only dropped Georgia to #5 in this week’s poll, which likely means that they could lose 2 more close games and still have a decent shot at making it into the playoffs. It is now best for Nebraska’s playoff chances that 1) Alabama becomes the undefeated SEC champs, and 2) Georgia either wins the rest of their games or loses three more. Since it seems highly unlikely that they’ll lose 3 more, the good news is that you have another reason to root against Texas when they play Georgia.

20 -#20 Oklahoma State (3-2)

42 - #23 Kansas State (4-1)

Combined with Utah’s loss to Arizona, it’s looking more and more likely that only one team will be coming out of the Big 12. When Kansas State plays Utah, it will be something close to an elimination match.

24 - #15 Louisville (3-1)

31 - #16 Notre Dame (4-1)

It would probably have been better for Nebraska if Louisville had won this game, and they nearly did. Notre Dame won, but they weren’t impressive. With the relatively weak schedule that they have this year, one more upset or ugly loss would possibly knock the Irish out. Their toughest remaining opponent is USC in the last week of the regular season, but they do have matchups with Army and Navy, who are both still undefeated.

7 - #19 Illinois (4-1)

21 - #9 Penn State (4-0)

Illinois competed very well with Penn State until the Nittany Lions salted it away late. This should reassure Nebraska fans that the Huskers’ only loss was NOT to a bad team. The Illini are still ranked, coming in at #24, while Penn State edged up two more spots to #7.

How did Nebraska’s future opponents do?

Rutgers did their part to try to be ranked for this week’s Nebraska game, beating Washington 21 to 18 on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights are finally garnering a handful of votes, but not very many. They would be ranked the equivalent of #34 in the AP despite being undefeated and beating Virginia Tech and Washington in back-to-back weeks. Since Virginia Tech almost beat (should have beat?) Miami, and Washington in favored to beat Michigan this week, how is Rutgers not ranked?

Indiana stayed undefeated, beating Maryland, 42-28. The Hoosiers moved up to #23 in this week’s poll. If Nebraska beats Rutgers and the Hoosiers beat Northwestern this week, both will be ranked and coming off of a bye week when they play on October 19 in Bloomington.

Ohio State crushed Michigan State on the road, but they’re still ranked #3. The Buckeyes are scary.

UCLA got crushed by Oregon, 34-13.

USC struggled early against Wisconsin, but they came back to win, 38-21.

All in all, it was a pretty good week for Nebraska’s playoff hopes. The best-case scenario is, obviously, to win all of the remaining games, but since that’s not likely, what’s the best 2-loss scenario for Nebraska to make the playoffs? The best options would include 5 undefeated conference champions as all 5 would automatically get an invitation, and being undefeated would mean that they handed as many “L”s as possible to the teams that would be Nebraska’s competition for the at-large bids. The SEC will get at least 3 teams in the playoffs, minimum, so it would be better for those 3 teams to lose to nobody else except each other so that there aren’t any extra 1- or 2-loss SEC teams still floating around at the end of the year. Beyond that, there are so many variables that it’s almost very complex.

Remaining Undefeated FBS Teams

ACC

Duke Blue Devils (5-0)

Miami Hurricanes (5-0)

Pitt Panthers (5-0)

Big Ten

Indiana Hoosiers (5-0)

Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)

Oregon Ducks (4-0)

Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0)

Big 12

BYU Cougars (5-0)

Iowa State Cyclones (4-0)

SEC

Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)

Missouri Tigers (4-0)

Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)

Texas Longhorns (5-0)

AAC

Army Black Knights (4-0)

Navy Midshipmen (4-0)

Conference USA

Liberty Flames (4-0)

Mountain West

UNLV Rebels (4-0)

Sun Belt

James Madison Dukes (4-0)

With the new 12-team playoff system in place, more teams will have more chances to make the playoffs, and their opportunities will last much longer into the season. This series of articles is intended to continue all season. There will be a companion article on Wednesday that identifies the key matchups that should matter most for the week, and a sample projection of which teams will be invited to the playoffs. All is written from the perspective of a Nebraska fan who wants a summary of what needs to happen for the Huskers to make the playoffs.

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