College Football Playoff Reflections After Week 7 + Playoff Tiers by Conference

Nebraska’s bye week produced a mixed bag of outcomes from the Huskers’ peers

Oct 5, 2024; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) gestures for a first down against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

While there were many tight games to take in over the weekend, only a few of them had outcomes that could potentially assist Nebraska on its postseason path. For the first time in a few weeks, there were not any unexpected or major upsets either. Let’s look at the games that were highlighted in last week’s list of games to watch….

34 - #1 Texas (6-0)
3 - #18(tied) Oklahoma (4-2)
There was no boom in these Sooners. The Texas Longhorns went Texasing crazy in the Cotton Bowl. OU should drop a few spots in the polls, probably very close to where Nebraska will be. Nebraska will likely jump over the Sooners with a win over Indiana.

31 - #2 Ohio State (5-1)
32 - #3 Oregon (6-0)
And down goes another giant! Nebraska will face the Buckeyes in two weeks, and they will be in a surly mood. Oregon now controls its own destiny, both in the Big Ten and nationally. This hurts Nebraska’s strength of schedule somewhat as the Buckeyes will not be undefeated when they play in 2 weeks.

33 - #4 Penn State (6-0)
30 - (#26) USC (3-3)
Overtime
The men of Troy did not, in point of fact, “Fight on!” They rolled over in overtime. Again, this hurts Nebraska’s strength of schedule for when the Huskers travel to USC in November.

25 - South Carolina (3-3)
27 - #7 Alabama (5-1)
The Gamecocks almost achieved the unthinkable, but ‘Bama got a late interception to save the day. It probably should still hurt the Tide a bit in the polls. This game has no obvious effect on the Huskers.

26 - #9 Ole Miss (5-2)
29 - #13 LSU (5-1)
It’s tough to beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge. LSU will probably be hovering at or near the top ten, and Ole Miss will drop a few spots, so they essentially will trade places in the polls. Nebraska will need to win its next two games—Indiana and Ohio State—to move ahead of these teams if they keep winning, but both have tough games remaining.

28 - #11 Iowa State (6-0)
16 - West Virginia (3-3)The Cyclones remain undefeated. Nebraska would benefit from the teams in the Big 12 knocking each other out, but Iowa State is refusing to follow that script.

19 - Arizona (3-3)
41 - #14 BYU (6-0)
Never trust a Wildcat to take out a Cougar. BYU is still undefeated. Same as the Cyclones, BYU refuses to lose, which is keeping them hovering above Nebraska in the rankings.

19 - #16 Utah (4-2)
27 - Arizona State (5-1)
The Sun Devils got it done. Utah was picked to win the Big 12 in the preseason, and Arizona State was picked to finish last, but they appear to be trading places. An injured Cam Rising for the Utes didn’t look the same, and it hurt the Utes’ offense. The loss should knock Utah down several places, probably hovering just above where Nebraska will be ranked.

31 - #18(tied) Kansas State (5-1)
28 - Colorado (4-2)
A late Buffs drive fell short on a long 4th down pass. This slightly hurts Nebraska in two ways: 1) a Colorado win would have continued to make Nebraska’s victory over them look more impressive; and 2) Kansas State will continue to remain above Nebraska in the polls.

15 - Cal (3-3)
17 - #22 Pitt (6-0)
The Golden Bears decided that they’d prefer to roll over than to “roll on.” They kept it close, but Pitt is still unbeaten. It’s hard for AP voters to gauge how good the Panthers actually are as they have yet to play a ranked opponent, but as long as they remain unbeaten, they will likely stay slightly ahead of Nebraska. Pitt has a bye in Week 8 before hosting Syracuse in a Thursday night game at the start of Week 9. Syracuse is receiving some votes in the AP poll as they only have 1 loss, so they will likely be ranked just outside of the top 25 when they play. It should be a good game.

Nebraska’s Other Opponents’ Games
UTEP (0-6) was blown out by Western Kentucky (6-1) on Thursday night: 17 to 44.
Northern Iowa (2-4) lost to South Dakota (5-1), 17-42.
Illinois (5-1) squeaked past Purdue (1-5) in overtime, 50-49.
Wisconsin (4-2) throttled Rutgers (4-2), 42-7.
#18(tie) Indiana (6-0) BYE
UCLA (1-5) lost to Minnesota (4-3) on a late touchdown, 17-21.
Iowa (4-2) gave Washington (4-3) a beat-down, 40-16.

Of all of these games, Iowa’s win will slightly boost Nebraska’s strength of schedule while the rest should have little effect.

Group of 5 Teams to Watch
There are only 3 undefeated teams left from the non-Power 4 conferences:
~Liberty (5-0) defeated Florida International in overtime on Tuesday night (10/8). The Flames next game is October 23 against Kennesaw State.
~Navy (5-0) had a bye. They host Charlotte next.
~Army (6-0) smoked UAB, 44-10. Army hosts East Carolina next.
28 - #17 Boise State (4-1)
7 - Hawai’i (2-3)

What should have been the best G5 game of the week, definitely was not:
7 - Coastal Carolina (4-2)
39 - James Madison (5-1)

The worst-case scenario for Nebraska’s playoff chances would be for 2 or more of the G5 teams to finish undefeated and ranked above Nebraska, especially if Boise State continues winning and locks up the automatic bid for the 5th highest ranked conference champion. From the perspective of Nebraska’s playoff prospects, it doesn’t matter which team from the G5 conferences get the automatic bid, but it is very important that there isn’t a 2nd G5 team that has climbed up into the rankings above Nebraska. Army plays Navy at the end of the regular season, and both of them play Notre Dame, so they are not likely to finish undefeated. However, Notre Dame will also be competing for an at-large bid, so it will help their case if they were to end up beating an otherwise undefeated Army and/or Navy. The ideal situation for Nebraska would be for ALL of these G5 teams to have at least one more loss so that an upset of Notre Dame would be even more beneficial, while victories by Notre Dame would seem less meaningful. Neither James Madison nor Liberty have the strength of schedule to bolster their appeal. UNLV, Sam Houston, Memphis, and North Texas also currently have only one loss. It would be better for Nebraska’s chances if they were all to lose at least once more.

Playoff Projections by Tiers
All of the Power 4 conference teams with less than 2 losses are arranged in tiers below to illustrate where they stand in pecking order for playoff invitations. Similarly, the G5 teams that are undefeated are also listed.

Tier 1 teams are the highest ranked and undefeated teams who are likely able to lose 2 more games and still have an at-large invitation to the playoffs.

Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and would still likely make the playoffs. These are predominantly undefeated teams who were not initially ranked in the top 5, plus those with one loss who were very highly ranked earlier in the season.

Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games, but they cannot afford any more losses. There are 11 teams left in the Power 4 conferences who have 1 loss AND did not start the season highly ranked. Nebraska is in this group. Notre Dame, Washington State, and G5 teams with less than 2 losses are also included in their own grouping.

SEC
Tier 1 = Texas (6-0)
Tier 2 = Alabama (5-1), Georgia (5-1), Tennessee (5-1)
Tier 3 = LSU (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Missouri (5-1)

Big Ten
Tier 1 = Oregon (5-0)
Tier 2 = Ohio State (5-1), Penn State (6-0), Indiana (6-0)
Tier 3 = Illinois (5-1), Nebraska (5-1)

Big 12
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Iowa State (6-0), BYU (6-0)
Tier 3 = Arizona State (5-1), Kansas State (5-1), Texas Tech (5-1)

Independents & G5
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Notre Dame (5-1)
Tier 3 = Boise State (5-1), Army (6-0), Navy (5-0), Liberty (5-0), Boise State (5-1), Washington State (5-1), UNLV (5-1), James Madison (5-1), Sam Houston (5-1), Memphis (5-1), North Texas (5-1)

The list of tiers will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 4 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it necessary, and the number of 2-loss teams has dwindled down far enough to make it manageable. Here is what last week’s projections looked like.

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