College Football Playoff Reflections After Week 9 Plus Tiers

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here

Oregon offensive lineman Iapani Laloulu celebrates a touchdown by Oregon running back Noah Whittington as the No. 1 Oregon Ducks host the No. 21 Illinois Fighting Illini Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It was fun while it lasted. I doubt that many reading this sincerely expected Nebraska to make the playoffs,… but it was fun to still have hope. Alas, that last feather of Nebraska playoff hope hath been pinned to the hearth and burned to ash…. Oh, but what if?

17 - Nebraska (5-3)
24 - #4 Ohio State (6-1)
Oh, what might have been. The red zone was no friend to Nebraska’s offense on Saturday, nor were those wearing black and white stripes. I think most Husker fans both understand and relate to Rhule’s stating that he felt proud but not satisfied. It is interesting that when Nebraska’s defensive line caused chaos versus Ohio State that the almost unanimous take-away from the national media was that it is proof that Ohio State is NOT a national title contender, and that their offensive line is in tatters. I would agree that they would benefit greatly by pulling up another left-tackle from somewhere, but I have a hunch that Ohio State is not as bad now as what everyone else is saying. We shall see.

My guess is that most Husker fans don’t care so much for the rest of the games since Nebraska lost the one that really mattered, but … here we go anyway….

Big Ten Games

9 - #20 Illinois (6-2)
38 - #1 Oregon (7-0)
Oregon looked like the #1 team. Illinois looked like Nebraska would like to play them again. Oregon remains #1 in this week’s AP poll, and Illinois dropped out of the top 25.

28 - #3 Penn State (7-0)
13 - Wisconsin (5-3)
Penn State trailed early, but came back strong in the second half after backup QB Beau Pribula came in to replace a banged-up Drew Allar. He looked good. The offense looked better. Penn State remains at #3.

17 - Washington (4-4)
31 - #13 Indiana (8-0)
Indiana looked good again, even with the starting quarterback, Rourke, not playing. They stayed at #13 in the poll.

SEC Games

27 - #5 Texas (7-1)
24 - #25 Vanderbilt (5-3)
Vandy kept it close, but Texas won, and they remain at #5 in the poll. Vandy dropped out of the top 25. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled at times, but—I don’t know if you’ve heard this but did you know that there’s a Manning at backup QB for Texas?—Coach Sarkisian repeatedly gave vocal support to Ewers remaining the starter. Some say the Sarkisian doth protest too much.

23 - #8 LSU (6-2)
38 - #14 Texas A&M (7-1)
It was a tale of two halves as LSU dominated the first half, but A&M took control in the second. In keeping with the “Love Me Some Backup Quarterback” theme of the week, the Aggies fortunes changed for the better when the starter, Connor Weigman, was benched in the second half. Marcel Reed came in and provided more than a spark as he broke several big plays in the second half to put the game away. LSU dropped to #16, and A&M moved up to #10 in this week’s poll.

0 - #21 Missouri (6-2)
34 - #15 Alabama (6-2)
Alabama spanked ‘em like naughty toddlers. Missouri has injuries—of course that includes the starting quarterback—but it seems safe to say now that Missouri has been seriously overrated. They dropped out of the top 25, and Alabama moved up to #14.

14 - Oklahoma (4-4)
26 - #18 Ole Miss (6-2)
The SEC was not kind to the Sooners when they gave them their schedule for this inaugural season in their new conference. The Sooners led at the half, 14-10, but they didn’t score again. Despite winning, Ole Miss moved down in this week’s poll to #19.

Big 12 Games

37 - #11 BYU (8-0)
24 - UCF (3-5)
BYU has been the Rodney Dangerfield of college football thus far in the season: “I get no respect, I tell ya.” Despite being undefeated and ranked #11, they were somehow still an underdog to UCF, who was 3-5. BYU moved up a couple spots to #9 in this week’s poll, so some respect is coming their way.

27 - Kansas (2-6)
29 - #16 Kansas State (7-1)
The Wildcats win the Sunflower Showdown. Kansas can’t buy a break, losing every close. Meanwhile, Kansas State dropped to #17 in this week’s poll, despite winning. It’s the AP’s way of saying, “Carry on my wayward son….”

ACC Games

13 - Syracuse (5-2)
41 - #19 Pittsburgh (7-0)
Another team in the Rodney Dangerfield Sweepstakes, Pitt defeated Syracuse on Thursday night, 41-13, and moved up one spot to #18. Syracuse gave up 3(!) pick-6 interceptions to start the game.

14 - Florida State (1-7)
36 - #6 Miami (8-0)
The Seminoles have done the service of making every other grumbling fan base grateful to at least NOT be Florida State fans. Miami kept it anticlimactic, and they’re still ranked #6 this week.

28 - #22 SMU (7-1)
27 - Duke (6-2)
Duke gave them a tussle, but the Mustangs pulled it out, and now they’ve moved up to #20.

Games from Outside of the Power 4 Conferences

51 - #12 Notre Dame (7-1)
14 - #24 Navy (7-0)
The Irish blew Navy out of the water. Navy dropped out of the top 25 for this week, and the Irish moved up to #8.

29 - #17 Boise State (6-1)
24 - UNLV (6-2)
In a good game Boise State beat UNLV at their place, taking control of their own destiny for making the playoffs. They moved up to #15 in this week’s poll, and they will almost certainly be one of the highest ranked conference champions if they win the rest of their games and the Mountain West championship game. They even have a reasonable shot of getting a bye if there’s an upset or two in the Big 12 before and during their conference championship game.

And that is that for the Nebraska 2024 playoff projections and reflections. Later this week, look for the Nebraska Bowl Projections article with games to watch for Week 10.

Even though Nebraska is no longer making the cut, here’s the present situation for the teams arranged in tiers for the playoffs by conference….

Playoff Projections by Tiers

All of the Power 4 conference teams with less than 3 losses are arranged in tiers below to illustrate where they stand in pecking order for playoff invitations. Similarly, Notre Dame and the G5 teams that have less than 2 losses are also listed by tier. The tiers are mostly concerned with who will receive the at-large bids as the 5 highest rated conference champions will receive automatic bids. It is also difficult to predict what will happen to the teams that lose the conference championship games.

Tier 1 teams are the highest ranked undefeated teams who are likely able to lose 2 games and still have an at-large invitation to the playoffs.

Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and would almost certainly make the playoffs. These are predominantly undefeated teams who were not initially ranked in the top 5, plus those with one loss who were very highly ranked earlier in the season.

Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games, but they cannot afford any more losses.

Tier 4 teams are those who still have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, but only if the following happen:

1. They win all of their remaining games.

2. Enough of their peers lose.

SEC
Tier 1 [none]

Tier 2 = Georgia (6-1), Texas (7-1), Tennessee (7-1), Texas A&M (7-1)

Tier 3 = Alabama (6-2), LSU (6-2)

Tier 4 = Ole Miss (6-2), Missouri (6-2)

Big Ten
Tier 1 = Oregon (8-0)
Tier 2 = Ohio State (6-1), Penn State (7-0), Indiana (8-0)
Tier 3 = [none]
Tier 4 = Illinois (6-2)

ACC
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Miami (8-0), Pitt (7-0), Clemson (6-1)
Tier 3 = SMU (7-1)
Tier 4 = Duke (6-2), Syracuse (5-2)

Big 12
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = BYU (8-0), Iowa State (7-0)
Tier 3 = Kansas State (7-1)
Tier 4 = Colorado (6-2), Arizona State (5-2)

Independents & G5
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Notre Dame (7-1)
Tier 3 = Boise State (6-1), Army (7-0), Louisiana (7-1), Washington State (7-1), Memphis (7-1)

The list of tiers is updated each week throughout the season. A Tier 5 will be added when/if needed as it consists of teams that are not yet mathematically eliminated but are highly implausible to be in contention.

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