College Football Week 5 Matchups to Watch + Playoff Tiers & Projections

Where does Nebraska currently stand in the playoff picture, and who should we root for?

Nebraska Head Coach Matt Rhule and quarterback Dyaln Raiola look up at the scoreboard during the second quarter against Illinois. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Nebraska hurt themselves with last week’s loss, but not all hope is gone as the Huskers can still make the playoffs. If they win out—which seems unrealistic—they would be in, but they would likely be on the bubble with one more loss. It would require some help from other teams, but it would still be plausible. Assuming that Nebraska does not win the Big Ten conference, the best circumstances would be to have as many conference champions be undefeated as possible so that every other team in consideration for at-large bids would have as many losses as possible. With that in mind, here are the major games this week that are most likely to impact Nebraska’s chances of making the playoffs….

#2 Georgia (3-0) @ #4 Alabama (3-0), 6:30 CDT, ABC

From the perspective of the Nebraska fan, it doesn’t matter so much who wins this game, but the ideal situation would be for one of these to go undefeated and win the SEC while the other loses multiple games. The problem with these two is that each is likely able to lose 2 games and still get into the playoffs.

#20 Oklahoma State (3-1) @ #23 Kansas State (3-1), 11:30 CDT, ESPN

From the Nebraska playoff perspective, it’s not that important which of these two teams wins, but it would probably be better if Kansas State won this game and then lost to Utah as then both of these teams would have at least two losses.

#15 Louisville (3-0) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-1), 2:30 CDT, Peacock

The ideal situation for Nebraska would be for the ACC to only have their conference champion make the playoffs and for the Irish to not make the cut. Since Louisville still has to play Miami, Boston College, Clemson, and Pitt, they are likely to lose some games, and this is the only ranked team that Notre Dame has left to play besides USC, so … I’m rooting for the Cardinals.

#19 Illinois (4-0) @ #9 Penn State (3-0), 6:30 CDT, NBC

For purposes of gaining an at-large bid, if it is assumed that Illinois will lose other games, it would be best for Nebraska if Illinois were to upset the Nittany Lions since Nebraska does not play Penn State. On the other hand, if you think that Nebraska has a shot at making the Big Ten championship game, it is more important for Illinois to get the loss as they would hold the tie-breaker over Nebraska if both finish with 1 conference loss.

Nebraska’s Other Opponents’ Key Games

Colorado @ UCF
Washington@ Rutgers
Maryland @ Indiana
Ohio State @ Michigan
Oregon @ UCLA
Wisconsin @ USC

Placing the Contenders in Tiers

To help visualize where each team is currently sitting, I have organized all of the teams in the Power 4 conferences with less than 2 losses into tiers. The tiers mostly correlate with which teams have the fewest losses, but with a couple of exceptions. I have NOT arranged the tiers based on who is most likely to make the playoffs, which is what I have seen other commentators do. Instead, I have organized them based on how many more losses a team can sustain and still be legitimately considered a playoff contender.

Tier 1

The Tier 1 teams are the only ones, right now, who seem to be able to lose 2 more games and still have a likely shot at the playoffs. I base this on 3 factors: 1) they are currently undefeated; 2) they have been highly ranked and were expected to make the playoffs since the preseason; 3) they have a strength of schedule that is tough enough and respected enough that even losing 2 games would still provide for some other impressive wins. It’s not a coincidence that the 4 teams that I have listed as Tier 1 come only from the SEC and the Big Ten as those conferences have the greatest depth of high-quality teams that shore up the strength of schedule. Georgia is a great example as they could conceivably lose to Alabama on Saturday and either Tennessee or Ole Miss later on, but if they beat the other as well as Texas, they would have three high-quality victories as they have already defeated Clemson. Miami is looking like a potential Tier 1 team, but they don’t yet have the strength of schedule to ensure that they belong in the playoffs, even with a couple of losses. The perceived weakness of the ACC means that Miami likely cannot afford more than one loss.

Tier 2

Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and still would likely make the playoffs. These are mostly undefeated teams, but Clemson is the one exception as their previous loss to Georgia will not likely hurt them very much if they continue to tear through their remaining schedule.

Tier 3

Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games. In other words, they cannot afford any more losses. There are 27 teams left in the Power 4 conferences who already have 1 loss AND did not start the season highly ranked. Nebraska is in this group. Most are highly unlikely to win out the rest of the way, so they’ll be removed each week as those teams falter.

Here is what the Power 4 conferences look like when the top teams are broken down into tiers:

SEC
Tier 1
Texas
Georgia
Alabama

Tier 2
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Missouri

Tier 3
LSU
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Arkansas

Big Ten

Tier 1
Ohio State

Tier 2
Oregon
Penn State
Illinois
Rutgers
Indiana

Tier 3
Michigan
USC
Nebraska
Michigan State
Iowa
Washington
Wisconsin
Maryland

ACC
Tier 1
[none]

Tier 2
Miami
Louisville
Clemson (2-1)
Duke
Pitt

Tier 3
Boston College
Syracuse
North Carolina
Cal
Virginia
Stanford
SMU

Big 12

Tier 1
[none]

Tier 2
Utah
Iowa State
UCF
BYU

Tier 3

Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Arizona
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
Colorado

Besides the Power 4 conferences, here are the only other teams that seem plausible contenders for at-large bids to the playoffs:

Pac 12
Tier 2
Washington State

Tier 3
Oregon State

Independent
Tier 2
Notre Dame (3-1)

My Projected Final Rankings for College Football Playoffs

1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)
2. 2. Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)
3. 3. Miami (12-1 ACC champ)
4. 4. Utah (12-1 Big 12 champ)
5. 5. Tennessee (11-1)
6. 6. Oregon (11-1)
7. 7. Ole Miss (11-1)
8. 8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. 9. Texas (11-2 - loses SEC championship game)
10. 10 Penn State (11-2 - loses Big Ten championship game)
11. 11.Alabama (11-2)
12. 12. Boise State (11-1 Mountain West champ)

12. Boise State (11-1 Mountain West champ)

Teams on the bubble for at-large bids: Michigan, Clemson, Louisville, USC, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, UCF, BYU

Teams on the bubble for 5th highest ranked conference champion: Washington State, UNLV, Texas State, Liberty, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo

*This list will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 4 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it necessary, and the number of 2-loss teams has dwindled down far enough to make it manageable. For those who want to understand a little more about the politics that will be going on behind the scenes as the playoff committee meets to rank the teams during the season and eventually choose who is invited into the 12-team playoff, this article explains several things that will likely affect who gets in. Here is what last week’s projections looked like.

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