2024 Nebraska Football: Reasons for a Reality Check

Dave Feit says there are question marks that might warrant pumping the brakes on the Husker hype train.

Michigan State's Jaden Mangham intercepts a Nebraska pass during the first quarter on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Big Red Kool-Aid is flowing as strong and as sweet as it has in a long time.  What could possibly stand in Nebraska's way of being a playoff contender? 

Well … a lot of things. 

As the yang to my more optimistic yin, we need to explore some of the reasons why keeping expectations in check may be for the best for your sanity. 

QB depth is a question mark.

We all know Dylan Raiola is going to start.  And, football gods be willing, he'll play every snap (unless NU is up by three scores).  But history has shown that is unlikely. 

I'm of the opinion that Nebraska wants to redshirt Daniel Kaelin, which means he only appears in four (or fewer) games.  That means Heinrich Haarberg will likely be the first one in off the bench.  While I'm optimistic in his development under new quarterbacks coach Glenn Thomas, I still wonder how big the gap is between QB1 and QB2.  

If - pausing so we can all knock on wood - Raiola is out for an extended time, then what?  Some of Matt Rhule's recent comments have me believing that Nebraska may roll the dice with Kaelin if a long-term backup plan is needed 

QB depth has been an ongoing issue for Nebraska.  In previous years, the challenge has been finding somebody who is healthy enough to execute the game plan.  Going away from a QB run heavy offense should help with that.  Now, the challenge is making sure there isn't a dramatic drop-off between starter and backup. 

Unspectacular special teams.

Based on their 2023 results, there are question marks at pretty much every key position within the special teams units:  

• Placekicker Tristan Alvano has been working his way back from an injury and may not be ready for the UTEP game.  He was 9-15 on field goals in 2023, and just 3 of 8 on kicks over 40 yards. 
• Punter Brian Buschini averaged 40.7 yards per punt last year, as he battled injuries and inconsistency. 
• Nebraska returned 16 punts for a grand total of 48 yards.  For better or worse, Tommi Hill is the leading returning punt returner (one return for one yard). 
• NU's kickoff return unit was a relative bright spot, averaging 22.3 yards per return.  Tommi Hill and Rahmir Johnson each had returns over 35 yards in 2023. 
• Good news:  Marco Ortiz was a 2023 finalist for the Mannelly Award (the Heisman of long snapping).  Bad news:  He is out of eligibility.  Camden Witucki, who has been in the program since 2020 but has not yet appeared in a game, will handle those duties.  

I think we all know what can happen when special teams fail to deliver.  I would hope that the title of the offseason docu-series "Chasing 3" is not lost on Nebraska's specialists.  For a program the needs every single yard and point to get over the hump, the special teams will need all the help they can get. 

Running backs against the wall.

Nebraska's running back depth chart has so many "ORs" that P.J. Fleck almost sued for copyright infringement.  Rahmir Johnson, Emmett Johnson, Gabe Ervin Jr. and Dante Dowdell all share the No. 1 one spot.   

In theory, the four-way tie could indicate that the backs are all so good that it was impossible for Rhule and E.J. Barthel to pick just one.  But I suspect the reason is that none of them have separated themselves from the pack. 

There are question marks aplenty in the room: 

• Rahmir Johnson has the most experience - 172 career carries, dating back to 2019 - but is coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. 
• Ervin has shown flashes in his career but has struggled to stay healthy.  He's yet to play more than eight games in a season, derailed by knee and hip injuries. 
• Emmett Johnson stepped up to fill the running back void in 2023, rushing for 411 yards and two touchdowns.
• Dowdell, an Oregon transfer, is a bit of an unknown.  He had 17 carries for 90 yards as a freshman, with over half of it coming against Portland State of the FCS.

Despite having Raiola and a stable of exciting wide receivers, Rhule has been clear that he wants to run the ball.  With the QB run game leaving the offense, that burden will fall on the running backs.  Are they (and the offensive line) up to the challenge? 

Nov 24, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes kicker Marshall Meeder (82) celebrates after kicking the game-winning field goal against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. / Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Game (mis)management.

Without rehashing Nebraska's losses in 2023, there were a handful of situations where the game management displayed by Rhule and staff was not very good.  In the moment, I was okay with the decision to try for a touchdown against Maryland when a field goal would have given NU the lead.  Hindsight - in the form of a backbreaking interception - makes it easy to second guess that choice.   

I'm generally okay with Nebraska being an "if we die, we die" team, but there is often a difference between dying a hero and dying in a Darwin Award-winning way.  Last year, Nebraska did too much of the latter. 

The title of the "Chasing 3" docu-series (named because Nebraska lost four games by three points) tells me the staff is aware of the issues and is not shying away from them.   

There are simple things that Rhule can do - making sure he has the wind at his back in the fourth quarter whenever possible - as well as having better oversight over timeout usage, and decisions on when to be aggressive and when to play it safe.   

But the proof will have to come when the game is on the line. 

Oct 28, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Jaylen Lloyd, a true freshman, carries the ball for a touchdown after making a catch against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Youth and unproven depth.

Glass half full:  Nebraska has a very young roster with a ton of potential! 

Glass half empty:  Nebraska is counting on production from a lot of guys with limited to no college experience.  It's probably safe to expect a steep drop-off from the sixth-year starters to the reserves who still need a map to get around campus. 

The initial depth chart has 17 redshirt or true freshmen.  That's a lot of youth being placed in high-leverage situations.  Maybe they're all up to the challenge.  Last year, true freshman Jaylen Lloyd ended up second on the team with three receiving touchdowns.   

But sometimes the learning curve and mistakes that most young players go through can be an issue that keeps them from consistent production.  Lloyd played a lot of snaps but had only six receptions in 10 games. 

Frankly, this is a problem that started with the recruiting and development toward the end of Scott Frost's tenure.  It has been exacerbated by Rhule flipping the roster for players that fit his vision - and are willing to buy into his culture.  As a result, two-thirds of the roster is a sophomore or younger.  That should pay off down the road, but it might be a speed bump this year. 

Oct 6, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers linebacker Mikai Gbayor (42) tackles Illinois Fighting Illini running back Reggie Love III (23) during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Linebacker inexperience.

Among the biggest losses from Nebraska's defense were linebackers Nick Henrich and Luke Reimer.  Both were multi-year starters, single-digit jersey guys, and leaders on the team.  How many times did they make a big play to get the defense off the field? 

I've been a big fan of Javin Wright, but he is out indefinitely with an undisclosed condition.  Mikai Gbayor and John Bullock were impressive in 2023.  Beyond that?  A transfer (Stefon Thompon), a true freshman (Vincent Shavers Jr.), and a bunch of guys with very little experience outside of special teams. 

I'm confident in the abilities of Nebraska's defensive line and have come around on the potential of the secondary.  But linebacker remains a "prove it" position. 

Nov 18, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers tight end Thomas Fidone II (24) is tackled by Wisconsin Badgers cornerback Jason Maitre (23) during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

A November nightmare? 

There are many fans - and several national pundits - who believe Nebraska could be a dark horse contender for the 12-team playoff.  But before the Huskers can crash the playoff party, they'll need to get through this November schedule: 

• UCLA at home 
• Bye week
• At Southern Cal 
• Wisconsin at home 
• At Iowa - a Black Friday night game. 

For the Huskers to have a legitimate chance of making a playoff run, they'll likely need to go 3-1 in November.  That means they'll have to reverse a lot of history.  The Huskers have never beaten USC (0-4-1 all time), have 10 straight losses to Wisconsin, and have lost eight of their last 10 against Iowa.   

Furthermore, Nebraska hasn't had three wins in November since 2013 when Bo Pelini's Huskers won vs. Northwestern, at Michigan and at Penn State. 

It's doable, but how confident are you that it will happen? 

If you're very confident, you'll want to check out these reasons to be optimistic about the 2024 season.

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