Dave Feit: Five Questions for Nebraska’s 2022 Season

Wondering about the new pieces on defense, the offense in crunch time and more

Kenny Larabee photo, KLIN

Every Nebraska football season brings a slew of things we don't know - and can't wait to find out. Here are five questions on my mind as the season starts.

Which players will have breakout seasons?

My list is a mix of guys who have not seen a lot of playing time, and vets who are ready to take their game to the next level. (Note: I'm intentionally limiting this to guys who were on Nebraska's roster during the 2021 season.)

• Caleb Tannor. He's looked like a four-star talent since he walked on campus. Last year, he was a reliable player (started all 12 games) and showed flashes against Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State. As a senior captain on the 2022 team, he's ready to turn himself into an NFL draft pick. Could he lead the team in sacks? I wouldn't be shocked.
• Eteva Mauga-Clements. Mauga-Clements flashed in his limited defensive reps in 2021. The linebacker showed a nose for the ball and big play instincts. He may not get a ton of chances with Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich ahead of him, but I love his potential.
• Rahmir Johnson. I'm cheating a little bit here. Among returning players, Johnson had the most rushing yards and second most receiving yards in 2021. But I'm intrigued to see how Johnson is used in the new "wideback" role - a hybrid of running back and slot receiver. When they create a new position, it means they want to get you on the field. Throw into some high-profile roles on special teams units, and Rahmir Johnson could be a big factor in many games.
• Javin Wright. He's got the measurables. He's got the Blackshirt DNA in his blood. He's gotten rave reviews from people around the program. If he can put his health concerns behind him, watch out.

Will the defense regress in 2021?

Before we address this question, it is important to acknowledge the work that Erik Chinander has done with the defense. The 2017 Bob Diaco-fense finished ranked 100th in total defense. Since then, Chinander's Blackshirts have steadily improved: 96th in 2018, 64th in 2019, 50th in 2020, and 46th last year. Remember, Nebraska is a team without a winning record, and an offense that wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard or dominating time of possession. Chins has done some impressive work.

However, there are a lot of pieces to be replaced. A partial list:

• Freaky defensive eraser JoJo Domann.
• Immovable object Damion Daniels.
• Six the top ten tacklers on the 2021 team.
• Eight of NU's ten interceptions in 2021.

Given the amount of NFL talent being replaced by transfers and backups, I think some statistical regression is a natural result. Even so, for every statistical category where NU takes a step back,* I expect them to improve in others.

*In 2021, NU was the #5 team in the nation in fourth-down conversion percentage at 31.6%. Impressive.

Specifically, I'm looking for an increase in sacks (98th in the nation), and turnovers gained (102nd). In my opinion, that could easily offset a drop in total defense or scoring defense.

Erik Chinander has earned the benefit of the doubt. The talent and continuity of his assistants, along with Mike Dawson no longer having to split his time as the special teams coordinator, matters too.

What happens the first time Nebraska finds itself trailing by one score late in the fourth quarter?

Of all the questions surrounding the 2022 Huskers, this one fascinates me the most. One-score games have had a profound effect on head coach Scott Frost's first four seasons.

Of the 44 games Frost has coached at Nebraska, 25 (56.8%) have been decided by 8 points or less. NU is 5-20 (.200) in those one-score games. Since Lane McCallum kicked a 24-yard field goal to beat Northwestern in 2019, the Huskers are just 2-14 in one-score games.

Okay - that is getting depressing. Let's look forward.

I see several things that should work in Nebraska's favor this fall:

• The influx of transfers. That's not a shot at Adrian Martinez, NU's rotating door of placekickers, or other former players who couldn't get it done in crunch time. Instead, having some fresh faces without the "oh no, here we go again" PTSD could be a good thing.
• Mark Whipple's run/pass ratio. I love a power running game as much as (if not more than) you do. But if you need to go 75 yards in 49 seconds, you're not running fullback traps and options to the short side of the field. Being proficient with passing in the first 59 minutes of the game should help in the final minute.
• Whipple's play-calling experience. Let's face it: some of NU's "must score" drives in 2021 seemed chaotic and panicked, instead of crisp and confident. I have no idea what Whipple's record is as a play caller in one-score games, but I'm okay with him giving it a shot.
• Frost can supervise the drive. How many times do you see a football team mismanage the clock and/or the timeouts in crunch time? Without having to focus on play-calling duties, Frost should be freed up to look at the big picture, provide guidance and lead the team.
• Law of averages. C'mon. 5-20 in one-score games, with just two wins in their last 16 tries? At some point, the coin has to come up heads.

How empty will the stadium be for the North Dakota and/or Georgia Southern games?

In an effort to extend the sellout streak through legitimate means (i.e., actually selling the tickets on the open market), the Huskers offered several "mini plan" packages this year. Most of these packages give fans the ability to pick one game a month - which conveniently meant selling either a North Dakota or Georgia State ticket with tickets to see Big Ten foes Wisconsin or Minnesota.

Recently, the Huskers ran an "OU + 2" promotion, where the purchase of a single Oklahoma ticket came with two tickets for North Dakota AND two for Georgia Southern. At a price of $270 each, they weren't exactly giving away the non-Oklahoma tickets, but they were greatly discounted over face value.

There is a bit of poetic justice at play here. For decades, Husker fans hoping to watch NU play on the road could only secure tickets if they bought similar ticket bundles. Heck, most of us know somebody who bought season tickets to KU, KSU or ISU so they could get seats for the NU game. Now, the Huskers are doing the same thing to OU fans wanting to come to Lincoln.

But there's a downside. That guy who bought Pitt season tickets in 2004 so he could watch NU play at Heinz Field? He probably threw away the rest of those tickets or sold them for pennies on the dollar. I suspect that could happen with fans who got North Dakota and/or Georgia Southern tickets thrown in with the game(s) they actually want to attend.

The good news is the first three games (North Dakota, Georgia Southern and Oklahoma) are sold out. Between mini package promotions, the Red Carpet Experience and other means, The Streak will reach 389 by the end of the season when Wisconsin comes to town.

But don't be shocked if there are large pockets of empty seats for the first two home games.

How many wins will Nebraska get this year?

The schedule might be "easier"* but with a lot of unproven transfers, and an ongoing focus on avoiding critical mistakes, this is impossible to predict. And make no mistake - we won't know the answer when the calendar flips from August to September.

*If I had a nickel for every time I heard or read "the schedule is easier," I could fly all of us to Ireland for the Northwestern game. Four quick takes:

1. Yes, NU swaps Ohio State for Rutgers, and Michigan State for Indiana. But there is always - ALWAYS - a team on Nebraska's schedule that ends up being much better than their preseason prediction. At the start of the 2021 season, few experts felt Michigan State (16-17 in the three previous seasons) would be a challenge. Maybe Indiana recaptures some of their magic from 2020 when Tom Allen was Coach of the Year.
2. Otherwise, in 2021, NU went 1-7 against the teams on their 2022 schedule. By the way, those teams have also made efforts to improve over the offseason.
3. NU's home-field advantage is almost nonexistent. Since Bo Pelini was fired, NU is 23-22 at Memorial Stadium. Don't ask if Frost or Mike Riley is the one with a winning record in Lincoln.
4. Too many fans still judge matchups based on an over-inflated view of NU and/or their outdated perception of the opponent. Cole Stukenholtz has great write up on this. I highly recommend it.

I can picture a doomsday scenario where Nebraska wins three or four (or fewer) games. Those usually start with "Casey Thompson gets hurt" and snowball from there. On the flip side, if everything - and I mean everything* - goes according to plan, 10 wins is a possibility.

*We're talking few injuries, newcomers flashing all over the field, returning guys taking the next step, multiple all-conference caliber players, few mistakes, catching opponents at the right time, and pretty much the opposite of every piece of bad juju that the Huskers have had in the Big Ten era.

It could happen … just like I could win a truck from a lottery scratcher.

I'm on record that this year I'll be happy with six regular-season wins, but I'll gladly take as many as I can get.

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