Nebraska Football: A Breakthrough Would Be Nice, but Progress Will Suffice

Dave Feit is OK with the Huskers staying on schedule with coach Matt Rhule’s previous rebuilds. He’d be happy with a bowl game this season, but he certainly wouldn’t turn down a more substantial leap forward.

Dave Feit | Aug 30, 2024

Oct 28, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the fourth quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

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Nebraska Cornhuskers

"I'll be happy with a bowl game."

Since the 2023 season ended on a cold and grey November day, that has been my response for what I want in the 2024 season. If Nebraska finishes six and six or seven and five, I'll be happy. Eight wins? Great! Nine or more? Let's freaking go.

But I'll be happy with a bowl game.

When we prognosticate, or evaluate what makes a season good or bad, remember that there's a difference between "success" and "progress." I won't turn down success, especially after the last six plus years. But I will be happy with progress. For where Nebraska is - and has been - a bowl game is undeniable progress.

Wide receiver Jaylen Lloyd during Nebraska football fall camp practice No. 9, on Aug. 9, 2024. / Nebraska Athletics

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Last year was about laying a foundation. Culture. Stability. Starting the development of a winning roster.

This year is about framing out the rebuilt program of our dreams. What do we want Nebraska football to be, and how do we get it there? Construction won't be finished this year, but real, tangible progress can be made. Recruits and people coming to visit should be able to see the vision taking shape.

Also - and this is important - until the dream house is finished, we have to make sure that nothing bad happens to the five-star sports car parked in the driveway.

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I know many people are expecting exponential success this season - a "Year 2" bump that gets Nebraska closer to 9 or 10 wins than they've been in a long, long time. Between the return of Tony White and most of his defense, a schedule that (on paper) looks favorable, and a freshman named Raiola, it's easy to understand. In the offseason, optimism abounds.

While I wouldn't turn that down, I'm okay with staying on schedule with Rhule's previous rebuilds:

Year 1: Install the culture. Check.
Year 2: Recruit, develop, and, as Rhule said this week, "figure out how to win." So far, so good.
Year 3: See the results.
Year 4 and beyond: Maintain, and aim higher.

Rhule’s Year 2 records (6-6 at Temple, 7-6 at Baylor) are a big jump from Year 1. Year 3 (10-4 and 11-3, respectively) is when things really get cooking.

Oct 12, 2019; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Matt Rhule and safety Chris Miller (3) sing the fight song after a double overtime win over the. Texas Tech Red Raiders at McLane Stadium. / Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

If you want to argue that the knowledge and experience Rhule has gained in his career and/or the transfer portal accelerate that timeline, I’ll listen to your case.

But here’s the thing: I don’t want to skip steps.

I’m willing to be patient – especially if we can see growth. Rhule’s system has worked twice before, and I believe it will work again.

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After being trapped in the basement of college football for so long, I completely understand wanting to take an express elevator to the top - especially when Dylan Raiola is pushing the buttons. But I'm okay with taking the stairs.

I believe we can reach the same heights, but my priority remains building something sustainable and lasting. I don't want a flash in the pan.

As I wrote on the day Scott Frost was fired: "Nebraska's struggles and failures in the 21st century cannot be traced back to where the head coach was born or went to college. Nebraska has struggled because the last five head coaches ultimately failed to do the things necessary to make Nebraska a stable, sustainable program."

Wisconsin running back Jackson Acker (34) runs for six yards during the first quarter of their game against Nebraska Saturday, November 18, 2023 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nine or ten wins, and everything that comes with it - national attention, playoff buzz, inflated egos, etc. - would be intoxicating. It would be great to dust off the Nebraska bandwagon. For a generation of fans who haven't experienced what it's like when Nebraska is winning, it would be like a blind man seeing a rainbow for the first time.

But what happens if that is not sustainable in 2025? What if Nebraska were to "regress" down to 8-4 or 7-5? Could we handle that? Or would it rachet up the pressure?

This is one of the reasons I'm okay with a more gradual climb. Get to six or seven or eight wins this year. Show clear progress and identify weaknesses to be corrected (through the portal or development of younger players). Then let's turn it loose and see how far it can go.

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I will freely admit that my "I'll be happy with a bowl game" mantra is influenced by an "under-promise and over-deliver" mentality.

It's easy to see a scenario where Nebraska starts 7-0, beats some teams they haven't beaten in a long time (i.e. most of the November schedule), and gets some national run as a playoff contender. Is it possible? Absolutely.

But after years of believing "obviously, we'll make a bowl game, this is Nebraska!", I want them to clear that bar before I start thinking bigger. Show me growth. Show me progress. Show me.

A few weeks ago, I saw a tweet from a guy that said "If Nebraska doesn't go at least 6-1 to begin the season, people are going to call for Matt Rhule to be fired, & I will lead the calls." While that's (hopefully) a fringe opinion, I feel like that guy is set up for an autumn of anger and disappointment.

Nebraska fumble recovery 2023 vs Illinois

Oct 6, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers players celebrate a recovered fumble by the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Not me. I can see what Rhule is building. I can see how progress in 2024 will lead to better high school and portal recruiting in 2025, as talented difference makers want to get on board. Better talent is the key to future success.

Instead of being disappointed because Nebraska didn't reach some arbitrary win total, plucked in a moment of Kool Aid-fueled offseason nirvana, I want to be pleased by their progress. If that progress comes with success, even better.

That approach is better for my mental health and enjoyment of the season.

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If you want a record prediction, put me down for 7-5.

While I like Nebraska's potential, I have concerns about depth (or the lack thereof) at several key positions. Injuries happen in football, and if the backups (and in some cases, the backups to the backups) aren't ready to step in, the team can suffer.

How long will it take to figure out an answer at running back without it impacting games? Special teams cannot be the liability it was a year ago. Is there a weakness in the defense that we haven't considered?

I think Nebraska will have some impressive wins this year. There will also be some losses that will show there's still work to be done. Again, that's okay. The rot that infested this great program didn't occur in two seasons, so why should we expect it to be magically fixed in two years?

I'll be happy with a bowl game.