Dave Feit: If We Die, We Die

Nebraska's final offensive play against Maryland was a disaster, but playing it safe might have backfired as well

Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Nebraska turned the ball over five times on Saturday … and lost by three points to a bowl eligible team. That's such a ridiculous, illogical statement I might as well have said "A purple chicken will rotate your tires for the price of an antelope cantaloupe."

But Nebraska did lose. In a relatively innovative, yet frustratingly familiar way.

Back at the start of the season, I went on record with two opinions about Nebraska's record in 2023:

1. This season is all about laying the foundation upon which the rest of the rebuild will occur. In Rhule’s world, that foundation is culture. This year, that foundation matters more than wins and losses.
2. I would be absolutely thrilled with a bowl game.

I stand by those two things today. Amazingly, despite a lengthy list of season-ending injuries, Nebraska is one win away from a bowl game. By all accounts, head coach Matt Rhule has been successful in implementing his culture.

Doc’s Diagnosis: Maryland’s Final Interception

Even if Nebraska were to (knock on wood) lose out, I would consider 2023 a successful season.* We would be disappointed in the ending, but there would still be definite signs of progress.

*And if you think that's a wildly unpopular opinion, keep reading …

Yes, there are a thousand things that still need to be fixed. New fires pop up as previous infernos have been extinguished. Rhule has currently lost back-to-back one-score games. The quarterback room is one giant question mark. Every game feels like a tribute to the 2009 Iowa State disaster where Nebraska turned it over eight times and lost 9-7.

Five wins and five losses. Two more regular-season chances to see if the season will finish up or down. The good news is this is by far the most beatable Wisconsin and Iowa have looked during Nebraska's B1G tenure. A bowl game - and the 15 extra practices of development - are still very much on the table.

I still like the Huskers' chances. They just have to stay out of their own way long enough to make it happen.

Things I believe

I'm okay with the decision to go for a touchdown on 3rd & goal. Before we get too far into this one, I'm going to make a big, big ask of you.

I want you to take everything you know about that third-down play: the decision to pass, the questionable play design, the poorly run route(s), and a bad throw that resulted in a back-breaking interception. I want you to temporarily forget about all those things. While we're at it, let's also set aside the incomplete pass on first and goal and the two-yard loss on second down. I won't argue that three runs, another 90-120 seconds off the clock, and a field goal might have changed the outcome of the game. But in this big-picture look, those things are off the table.

Instead, I want to discuss the strategy that went into the decision NU faced on 3rd and goal from the 7-yard line: Should they play it safe and kick the field goal on fourth down? Or should they try to score a touchdown?

A field goal puts Nebraska up three points. Maryland gets the ball with three minutes, two timeouts, and one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. A field goal - with the wind at their back - sends the game to overtime. A touchdown, and Nebraska loses.

With a NU touchdown, the pressure on Maryland goes up. They must go the length of the field to tie, against what is arguably Nebraska's best defense since 2009.

On this pivotal third down, the snap will be taken by a third-string quarterback seeing his most extensive action in a year. The majority of the offensive personnel surrounding him are only playing due to injuries to starters. But that third-string QB has just driven the team 90 yards. The fans in the stands were literally chanting his name.

In the moment - and even now with the hindsight of the bad play call / execution / result - I support the decision to go for a touchdown. You play to win. That excellent defense you'd trust to secure a three-point lead is still the same with the score tied, right?

I'm reminded of something I heard in a viral video a few weeks ago:

"We are going to go out there today, and we are going to play the way we play. … I don't want anybody on that field hoping, or waiting. I want guys out there demanding it from themselves and believing in it. … Play like brothers. Pick each other up. Help each other out tonight.

"If we die, we die."

Who said that again?

Yes, the decision backfired horrifically. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it was the wrong choice.

The anti-Satterfield crowd is focused on the wrong role. Tired: The offensive coordinator should be fired. Wired: Should the quarterbacks coach be replaced?

For much of the season, there has been a faction of fans very critical of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield. I find the majority of their frustrations short-sighted, if not silly. Seriously, what do they expect from a first-year offense that has been plagued with injuries at almost every position?

But I think we can - and should - have a conversation about Satterfield's performance as the quarterbacks coach. The results from 2023 have not been good.

The quarterback that Satterfield (presumably) hand-picked from the portal has struggled from Week 1. The backup is best described by radio host John Bishop as a "Wildcat Plus" quarterback with an arm angle that drives fans crazy. As poorly as the first two guys have played, the third-stringer hasn't really been considered a viable option to take over.

Collectively, the quarterbacks have completed a hair over 50% of their throws with eight touchdowns in 10 games and 14 interceptions. All have been sloppy with the ball when they run. Any criticism of Nebraska's Iowa-esque offense should start and end with the play of the quarterbacks.

While it has been obvious since early October that Nebraska's 2024 quarterback is not currently on the roster, there has been more regression than improvement in the last month. Do you put that on the players or the position coach?

To be clear: I'm not calling for anybody to be fired, or reassigned. I'm simply pointing out that the Haterfield Army would have a better case if they focused on the O.C.'s other role.

I'm eternally thankful for Nebraska volleyball. Let's take a timeout from bickering over a play call in another one-score loss and the related discussions about NU's tire fire of a quarterback room to appreciate what is happening a mile to the northeast of Memorial Stadium.

The Nebraska volleyball team is currently 25-0 and comfortably atop the standings in the Big Ten conference (the greatest conference for college volleyball). The Huskers are extraordinarily talented, ridiculously deep, and an absolute joy to watch.

They play with an intoxicating blend of youthful exuberance, unflappable confidence, and just the right amount of arrogant swagger.

Every time the football team leaves me with a horrible taste in my mouth after another stupid, avoidable loss, it is so nice to know that the ladies will be there to close out the weekend on a positive, winning note.

That program has been so ridiculously good for so long. Terry Pettit built something amazing out of nothing. John Cook has taken it to unprecedented heights.

Radio play-by-play voice John Baylor - an all-time great in his own right - has said that this is the "golden age of Nebraska volleyball." I totally agree.

For those of you who were too young to remember football's glory days, I'd encourage you to savor the incredible season Nebraska volleyball is having.

Things I don't know

What would have happened if NU had kicked the field goal? Instead of throwing an interception, Purdy throws incomplete on 3rd & goal. Tristan Alvano nails a 24-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 13-10 lead.

After fair catching the kickoff, Maryland has the ball 1st & 10 at the NU 25 with 3:30 left and two timeouts. Kicker Jack Howes's longest field goal of the season is 48 yards, so the Terps would need 40-45 yards to get him in range for a tying field goal (remember: Maryland had a 15-mph wind at its back in the fourth quarter). A touchdown gives Maryland the lead.

The Blackshirts are psyched up and the Memorial Stadium crowd is deafening.

What happens? Does Nebraska get a stop? Do the Terps send it to overtime? Can Nebraska get a turnover? Will Maryland break Husker hearts with a go-ahead touchdown?

Recent history says it ends poorly.

The incomparable Stewmanji looked at the final defensive possession in 19 games since the start of 2018 where Nebraska was tied or ahead by one score. In 12 of those 19 games, the defense allowed a late field goal (4) or touchdown (8). Only seven times did the Blackshirts get a stop via an interception (3) or turnover on downs (4).

Even if we limit the sample size to just the Rhule era, NU is just 1-1. A turnover on downs against Northwestern, and Minnesota kicking a last-second field goal to win 13-10.

As big a believer as I have been in Nebraska's defense throughout the season (seriously, check the receipts), I think Maryland comes away with points on the last drive. Taulia Tagovailoa had shown the ability to burn Nebraska’s short-handed secondary with deep passes. His quick release – and Maryland’s offensive line – was keeping Nebraska’s pass rush at bay. Also, there’s the fact that Maryland managed to get 75 yards in 12 plays to kick a 24-yard field goal on the final drive.

But we'll never know for sure.

Who should start at quarterback against Wisconsin? In theory, this should be a simple question. But the answer is cloudier than at any point in the season.

As a warning, you may want to get a stiff drink as we look over the candidates:

• Heinrich Haarberg. Hurt his ankle early in the Maryland game. Completing just 49% of his passes with a team-high 7 INTs. NU's leading rusher by 261 yards. But do you trust him if he can’t run?
• Jeff Sims. The most accurate of the three (59.6% in 2023), but has a TD:INT ratio of 1:6. Also has an alarming number of fumbles. Led both of NU's scoring drives against Maryland. Do you trust him at all?
• Chubba Purdy. Has the least experience and reps with the No. 1 offense. Started a drive at his own 3 and was responsible for 57 of the 90 yards. Threw an interception on 3rd & goal, dropping him to 1 of 5 passing on the year. Can you really start him in a setting where Nebraska has lost its last six tries?

Of those options, who would you start? Who will the coaches start? Assuming he's healthy, I suspect Haarberg gets the nod due to his experience. But if he can't be an explosive - or even effective - runner, I'd play Sims and/or Purdy.

A dual-QB system isn't conventional, but very little about Nebraska's offense is functional, let alone conventional.

Why do teams continue to run directly at Nash Hutmacher in short-yardage situations? I'm not surprised that opposing offenses choose to go for it on 4th and 1 against Nebraska. As good as the Blackshirts have been this year, most teams should be able to pick up one yard when they need it.

But I am surprised that teams try to convert those 4th-and-1 situations by running directly at Nash Hutmacher's 330 pounds of polar bear strength.

Maryland was the latest team to try it, and like the others that have come before they were denied.

Hopefully Wisconsin and Iowa try it too.

Huskerigami Update

A “Huskerigami” is a final score combination (win or lose) that has never happened in the 130+ year history of Nebraska football.

Final score: 13-10

Is that a Huskerigami? No. It has happened five times before. The first time was an Oct. 29, 1938 defeat against Missouri. It was NU's first loss to Mizzou since 1927.

The most recent was the 2023 season opener at Minnesota.

5 things I loved

1. Emmett Johnson. Johnson is more than just Nebraska's No. 1 running back. He's the team's most consistent offensive weapon. Seventeen carries for 84 yards with zero ball-security issues. He hits holes without trying to bounce to the outside, keeps his legs moving, and did I mention he protects the ball? I liked the attempts to get him the ball in the passing game, even if the results (3 catches for 9 yards) weren't very productive. Keep feeding him.
2. Ty Robinson. Goodness, what a game. Seven tackles, including 1½ for loss. Two passes batted down, a quarterback hurry, and a fumble recovery. Enjoy Ty Robinson while you can, because he'll likely be on an NFL roster next year.
3. Javin Wright. The defense had a season-best three takeaways Saturday. Two were caused by Javin Wright. His toe-tap interception on the sideline was a thing of beauty. He also forced a fourth-quarter fumble after Nebraska had turned the ball over. Wright also had a team-high eight tackles.
4. Chubba Purdy. Yeah, I know how that last throw turned out. But Chubba impressed me with his play. His first meaningful snaps in weeks were in a fourth-quarter drive that started on the 3-yard line. The second snap almost went over his head, but he turned it into a 13-yard gain. By the time his 11-yard run set up 1st and goal, the Memorial Stadium crowd was chanting "PURDY! PURDY!" If Nebraska had scored a touchdown, construction on a statue would have started immediately.
5. Nate Boerkircher. Boerkircher has been deserving of recognition for his work in the running game. He's been an excellent perimeter blocker - Janiran Bonner's touchdown doesn't happen without Boerkircher. But his 11-yard carry on a fake punt definitely put him over the top.

Honorable mention: Janiran Bonner, Brian Buschini, Jimari Butler, Nash Hutmacher, Omar Brown, Marques Buford, Nebraska going all-out for Veterans Day.

5 areas for improvement

1. Turnovers. The Huskers' first offensive play of the fourth quarter was a fumble. Their second was an interception. The final offensive play was also an interception, one of two to occur at the goal line. It is damn near impossible to win a football game when you turn it over five times.
2. Quarterbacks. According to the amazing Arbitrary Analytics account, Nebraska became the 42nd team to throw three interceptions in a game in the last 20 years. So, they've got that going for them, which is nice. Beyond that? The starter had zero passing yards (on one completion and two carries). The backup turned it over three times but completed 61.5% of his throws (easily the highest on the season). The No. 3 guy had the fans chanting his name ... until he threw an interception at the goal line. Woof.
3. Tackling. Tackling - especially in the open field - has been a strength of the defense all season long. But on Saturday, the defense had some uncharacteristic misses that allowed Maryland to gain extra yards and extend drives.
4. Dropped passes. We know the quarterback play is not good. But the QBs aren't exactly being helped out by their receivers. It feels like Husker receivers are good for at least two hit-em-in-the-hands drops per game. For an offense that is throwing only 20 times a game (and completing half of those), every drop is critical.
5. Tractor horns. I've been a longtime fan of NU using the Killigans' version of "The Cornhusker" during games, and I think it has found a nice home between the first and second quarters. The fans - especially the students - have started to embrace the song, and sing it in full throat. It's not "Jump Around," but it's evolving into a cool tradition…. except for the tractor pulling the T-shirt gatling gun is blasting its horn every three seconds.