Dave Feit: Nebraska-Northwestern Postmortem

The good, the bad and the awfully familiar from a painful start to the Huskers’ season

A day or two before the Northwestern game, I published a piece where I looked back through several different Husker seasons to find an indication of how 2022 could go.

I went through six different seasons and looked at how the previous year went, preseason storylines, schedules, and so on. I found some encouraging similarities (2003 and 2006) and some discouraging ones (2007 and 2017).

But when I was considering past seasons that gave me a sense of déjà vu, there's one that I completely missed:

2021.

I'm not (yet) saying that the 2022 team is on a path to 3-9. But the Northwestern game had a lot of the greatest hits from the 2021 opener at Illinois:

• Opening the season with a division opponent on the road.
• Flashes of brilliance.
• Stretches of incompetence.
• Turnovers leading to points.
• A critical mistake on special teams.
• A chance to win on the final drive.
• Another heartbreaking one-score loss.

Sigh.

Look: I don't want every single week to be a referendum on the program and Scott Frost's job security. I find that exhausting. As part of my pledge to stay focused on the little picture of the regular season, I'll try to keep the focus on the games. I don't want to spend the season (and/or next four weeks) advocating for anybody to lose their job. There were good things that happened on Saturday. We're going to talk about those. We'll also talk about the bad stuff.

This game was a lot of fun … until it wasn't. And when it went bad, it snowballed with a familiar certainty. So, while this Week 0 failure is different from last year's Week 0 clunker, the end result is the same: A painful start to what could be a long and uncomfortable season.

Let's dig in.

NOTE: Due to the bylaws of the unofficial "Battle for NU" rivalry game, Northwestern University has earned the right to "NU" for the next year. Any usage of "NU" in this piece refers to the Wildcats.

Things I believe

I now understand why Nebraska played this game in Ireland.

For the last two plus years, I've been trying to understand why Bill Moos a) signed Nebraska up for this game and b) fought so hard to keep the Huskers involved after the pandemic moved the original version to Illinois. Why disrupt a season, add stress to your embattled head coach, and create a thousand logistical headaches just to play a game in a country that does not care about American football?

Then I saw the answer. It was in a pep rally photo from Trev Alberts and in the crowd shots of Aviva Stadium in Dublin. This game was about Nebraska's fans.

The Huskers have a well-earned reputation for travelling well. From annual takeovers of stadiums in the Big 8, to the Northwestern home game where the Wildcats had to use a silent count, to the gold standard: the invasion of Notre Dame's stadium in 2000. Nebraska fans have proven they will go anywhere to watch their Huskers play.

But Ireland is a different beast. Dublin is 4000+ miles from Nebraska. This isn't hopping in the car and driving to Lawrence or Manhattan on Saturday morning. This is international travel that took intentional planning. And likely came with a hefty price tag.

Maybe Bill Moos knew that Husker fans would show up and show out, creating a feel-good moment for a fan base that needs some swagger restored. A lot of teams can claim passionate fans, but how many could legitimately match what Husker fans did?

During the game, the announcers mentioned that technology issues were preventing the concession stands from taking money. So, they just gave everything away. Reportedly, Husker fans drank an Irish stadium out of beer. Legendary.

Free beer is the least the nation of Ireland could do for the fans who made the trip.

There is potential in the offense. That first drive was a thing of beauty. Eight plays, 75 yards, and a touchdown. Five different players touched the ball. Nebraska was never behind the sticks, and converted both of their third downs. Take a picture and hang it in the Sheldon Museum of Art.

It was very apparent that Mark Whipple is not going to lead the QB-run heavy Nebraska offense that we saw in the Frost/Adrian Martinez era.

Case in point: at the start of the second quarter, Nebraska was driving, but faced 3rd and 1 at the Northwestern 13. Thompson took the snap, and very clearly had space to run for the first down. Martinez would have tucked it. Adrian definitely would have picked up the first down, and might have scored. Instead, Casey Thompson found Trey Palmer over the middle for 10 yards, setting up first and goal at the 3.

When play caller Whipple and quarterback Thompson were in sync, Nebraska was creative, quick, and spread the ball all over the field. Considering what happened on the defensive side of that ball, that is a very good thing. When the O.C. and QB weren't in sync…. we’ll get to that in a bit.

Some things are going to be better this year. Some will probably be the same. On Saturday, NU had eight penalties, burned two timeouts trying to get plays in, missed a 36-yard field goal, and torpedoed several drives with mistakes. (Again, Northwestern won the right be called "NU")

Meanwhile, the Huskers only had one penalty (a defensive offsides call that had no impact). Punting was much better. All four PATs went through with no drama. The missed field goal was an end of half longshot. These things - at least for one day - were noticeable better than they were a year ago.

But some old complaints resurfaced. The Huskers failed to advance a kickoff return past the 25 yard line. The Huskers were -2 in turnover margin.

Rotations and substitutions were head-scratching. Projected impact players - such as Rahmir Johnson - were on the milk carton. If I told you the skill position players on the field during the final two drives included true freshman Ajay Allen, Brody Belt, Martin Oliver, and Wyatt Liewer, you'd probably assume the Huskers were leading by 17 points instead of trailing by three.

I have always advised against making sweeping conclusions based on the season opener. That's a concept, I still believe in. The Huskers could clean up many - or all - of these things. But under Frost, the only constant is inconsistency. My undying optimism has been replaced with I'll believe it when I see it.

Things I don't know

What the hell was Scott Frost thinking? I want to type this out so future generations can fully appreciate the events of a 29-second stretch in the third quarter:

With 9:37 left in the third quarter, Nebraska scored to regain the lead 21-17. Brendan Franke boomed his kickoff into the end zone for a touchback. On their first play, Northwestern broke a 21-yard run, but Marques Buford forced a fumble that was recovered by Nebraska. After an incomplete pass, Anthony Grant ran 46 yards for a touchdown. Nebraska now led 28-17.

AND THEN SCOTT FROST CALLED* AN ONSIDE KICK!

*I'll address the speculation that the call actually came from Special Teams Coordinator Bill Busch, or was the result of Franke audibling based on a read. This suggests that Frost is falling on the grenade for this team, regardless of what he said in the post-game press conference.

If it was Busch, the head coach would know and should be smart enough to override him.

And if Franke has a standing "if you see X, you can try it" level of trust based on repeated success in practice, it says here that the Busch and/or Frost need to understand the moment and say "kick it deep no matter what".

Onside kicks are ALWAYS low probability, and this one had little chance. It was gobbled up before it went 10 yards. Five plays later, Northwestern scored the first of their 14 straight points. The Huskers never scored again.

I literally have no words to describe how horrible that decision was. I spent the better part of an hour trying to think of another play call from any other Nebraska game that matches the poor situational awareness and momentum murdering outcome, and found none.

I struggle to think of a legitimate reason why. Why that call? Why in that moment? Other than "they'll never be expecting it!" I cannot come up with a plausible reason or positive spin.

Did Frost not trust his defense enough to protect an 11-point lead? Was he feeling the enormous pressure of this game, this season, and his Nebraska tenure, and convinced himself that he needed a blowout win?

And what was the conversation like on the sidelines or on the headphones? Did none of the other assistants have the courage to say "Um … boss. Don't do it. That's a horrible idea. Just kick it deep"?

I know in the end this is one call in one game in what is looking to be a disappointing season.

But wow. That was an all-timer.

Is Thompson a streaky QB, or did Northwestern figure out Nebraska's offense? As great as the offense looked for the first 2 and a half quarters, it limped to the finish line.

After the onside kick, the Huskers had six drives. Thompson was a combined 6-14 for 57 yards, 2 INTs and a sack. He was noticeably off target on several throws. Both of the interceptions seemed as if he was trying to fit the ball into a tight window.

I'll be the first to say that Thompson did not get a ton of support from his receivers. There were several passes that hit is receivers in the hands…. before hitting the turf.

So, what happened? Did Thompson go through a rough stretch? Did Whipple get out of rhythm calling plays? Or did Northwestern make adjustments that the Huskers failed to counter? I think it's too soon to say conclusively.

But it seems odd to call a zone read type play on 3rd and 2 when nobody believes the quarterback is going to keep it. If Nebraska struggles to establish a consistent running game (3.5 yards per carry overall, 2.1 without Anthony Grant's 46-yard TD), the passing game becomes predictable, and/or the offensive line struggles to pass protect, it could be a long fall.

Where do we go from here? If you're looking to learn anything positive about the 2022 Huskers, you're going to have to wait a few weeks. With North Dakota and Georgia Southern up next, I don't know what kind of lasting, reassuring information can be gleaned.

Best-case scenario: Nebraska hangs 50, nobody gets hurt, and the backups get some extended reps. Winning is always fun, but what could you hope to see that would soothe the concerns that were raised in Ireland?

The expectation should be that Nebraska soundly beats FCS and Sun Belt teams at home. Maybe that's not realistic given that the Huskers are 1-9 in their last ten games. Heck, Frost is 1-1 against Sun Belt teams as Nebraska's coach. Remember when Bo Pelini needed a Superman effort from Ameer Abdullah to beat McNeese State in 2014? Bo was fired before the bowl game, and I suspect the Bolievers would not be as passionate if Pelini lost to McNeese State.

If the next two games are competitive in the fourth quarter, or - heaven forbid - worse, then feel free to start looking ahead to the conclusion of the Indiana game.

Otherwise, hope for improvement before the Oklahoma game and the rest of the Big Ten schedule.

5 Things I loved

1. Casey Thompson. Above, I mentioned that there was a 3rd & 1 where Martinez would have tucked it and picked up the first down. I suspect Thompson could have done that too. But with all due respect to either Martinez, I saw Thompson make some throws that I have not seen from a Husker QB in a long time. Thompson also threw some passes away instead of trying to force a play. I'll take that - and I'll take my chances with 25-42 for 355 yards, especially if the interceptions can be cleaned up (or avoided).
2. Jay Terry & the Huskers equipment staff. No, I'm not sucking up for a free pair of shoes (but if you have some size 13s laying around, my DMs are open). But I do think we need to properly recognize and appreciate the Herculean effort involved with packing a college football program, 100 players, coaches, staff, and more; sending it all 4,000 miles away, and having everything perfectly ready to go for a full week abroad. Oh yeah, after the game, they had to pack it all up, take it home, and unpack it for practice and a game on Saturday. I cannot begin to imagine the planning, organizing, and level of detail needed to pull it off. But it deserves some hefty praise.
3. Brian Buschini. His first kick as a Husker came with his heels on the back the end zone, but he sent it 47 yards with ample hang time. He ended the day with six punts for an average (and net) of 47.2 yards. For reference, in 2021, Nebraska's punters averaged 40.3 yards per kick, with a net of 35.5. He's an early candidate for Nebraska's Transfer Portal MVP.
4. Travis Vokolek. The captain got his senior year off to a great start. Five catches for 63 yards. I loved how the big tight end was used in the passing game: crossing routes, lined up as an H Back, a quick release on 3rd and long. Hopefully he can bounce back quick from his injury, as he could have a monster season.
5. Luke Reimer. The defense was - at best - uneven in this game. But Reimer is Mr. Consistency, making tackles all over the field.

Honorable mention: Anthony Grant, Timmy Bleekrode, Tommi Hill, Marques Buford Jr., Isaiah Garcia-Castenada, Brody Belt, Trey Palmer, Nate Boerkircher's PBU

5 Areas for improvement

1. Scott Frost. This should have been an easy W. The formula was there: let the new offensive staff do their thing, watch the defense do just enough, and savor your special teams showing a competence that has been lacking. All you needed to do is walk up and down the sideline, spit every so often, and praise the guys you hired / recruited in the postgame interviews. Instead, Frost gave us one of the worst play calls in school history.
2. Tackling. I'm not going to panic about the poor tackling I saw on Saturday. But it is a big reason why the Huskers lost. This is definitely something to watch in the next two weeks.
3. Dropped passes. We can - and did - talk about the shortcomings of Nebraska's three most recent wide receiver coaches. But I'll say this about their tenures: dropped passes were rarely an issue. I haven't gone back to count, but one source said there were seven dropped balls on Saturday - many of them hitting receivers in the hands. Add this to your watch list going forward.
4. Pass rush. I never thought the Huskers would replicate the 56-7 score from 2021, but I expected they'd match or surpass the four sacks they racked up against the Wildcats. Zero sacks - and only one QB hurry - was a shocker.
5. Conditioning. Google tells me that Dublin is 66 feet about sea level. Given the number of Husker defenders that appeared gassed, I would have guessed they were playing at altitude. Another big red flag.